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1* Free Play on Seahawks/Broncos under 41 -110

1* Free Play on over 40½

1* Free Pick on Seahawks/Broncos under 40½

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Brewers/Dodgers OVER 7.5

The Brewers will make this a bullpen game that will likely feature Dustin May. He is 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA in 31 starts this season. This will be the best chance for the Dodgers to break out of their hitting slump, and I look for them to take advantage.

But the Brewers have a lot of confidence at the plate after scoring 7 runs in Game 2 and 6 runs in Game 3. They have proven they can get to this Los Angeles bullpen, and I think they continue to do so tonight once Tyler Glasnow exits.

Glasnow is 0-3 with a 4.55 ERA in nine career regular-season appearances against the Brewers. He has been having control issues and had 5 walks in 4 2/3 innings against the Braves in his lone postseason start. I expect the patient Brewers to get his pitch count up and get into this suspect Los Angeles bullpen early. This total of 7.5 is too short. Bet the OVER in Game 4 Thursday.

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3* on under

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints PK

1* Free Pick on Seahawks/Broncos under 40½ -105

1* Free Pick on Broncos +2½

Denver getting 2.5 at home against a Seattle team that just coughed the ball up 4 times is the number I want on Thursday night.

The Seahawks lost 32-29 to the 49ers on Sunday.

Sam Darnold threw 2 picks, and both Emanuel Wilson and George Holani lost fumbles.

Darnold is up to 5 interceptions in three full games this season after a league-worst 20 turnovers in 2025.

Now Seattle has to fix that on a short week, on the road, at altitude.

That's a bad spot for a sloppy offense.

The injury report doesn't help.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is questionable with an ankle issue after being estimated as limited on both practice reports.

Zach Charbonnet remains out.

Asked if Charbonnet would play, Mike Macdonald said, "As of right now, the answer is no, subject to change".

That leaves Wilson, fresh off a fumble, leading the backfield.

If Smith-Njigba is limited or out, there isn't much behind him.

Cooper Kupp has seen three or fewer targets in four of five games.

Rashid Shaheed has 9 catches for 96 yards with no receiving touchdowns.

Denver isn't pretty on offense at 19.4 points a game, but the Broncos are 3-2 and just won 23-17 at the Chargers.

That defense held Los Angeles to 17 without Pat Surtain.

Surtain is doubtful again and Riley Moss is questionable, which is why the points are here.

I'll take them.

A home team off a road win, catching 2.5 against a turnover machine on a short week, is value at this price.

I like the Broncos

1* FREE INFO PLAY Seahawks vs Broncos under 41 -115

1* Free Sharp Play on Sharks +128

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #209239 Atlante/Pumas UNAM DRAW (+235) (11 p.m., Friday, October 16 Fox Sports Deportes) Liga MX.

We see value in the draw between two sides struggling to find consistency. Atlante has shared the points in five of its first 11 league matches, including three of five at home. With just one home victory, the hosts have had trouble turning competitive performances into wins. Pumas UNAM has defensive concerns of its own, conceding 11 goals over its last five matches. That makes the visitors difficult to trust to claim all three points on the road. We expect a closely contested matchup with chances for both teams, but neither side doing enough to pull away. At +235, take the draw. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC and soccer. Sign-up with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

1 Dimer on Seahawks vs Broncos over 40½ -110

Wyoming -7.5

Locking this in early.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

UCLA is laying 2.5–3 at home against a 4-1 Wisconsin team on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl, with the total sitting in the low-to-mid 40s. The number has been short and relatively stable in that range. Wisconsin is the better ATS side this season, and a short home favorite against a team already 4-1 is the tax. The points are the work.

Wisconsin sits at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten), averaging 31.6 points while allowing 16.6. The Badgers have been efficient on both sides of the ball (6.2 yards per play on offense, strong defensive numbers), with a perfect red-zone scoring rate and solid control in recent wins. They opened with a loss to Notre Dame but have since reeled off four straight victories, including a 24-20 road win at Penn State and a 31-3 home win over Michigan State. Wisconsin is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 on the total. Their defense has limited opponents to roughly 16–17 points per game, and the offense has been balanced enough to stay in games without relying on explosive variance.

UCLA is 5-0 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked around No. 12, averaging 39.2 points while allowing 18.0. The Bruins have covered in every game so far (5-0 ATS) and have wins over California, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, and a 17-15 road upset at Oregon as double-digit underdogs. Their offense has been productive, particularly on the ground (over 1,200 rushing yards), but the quarterback situation is a major variable: Nico Iamaleava left the Oregon game with injuries and is expected to be limited or out, elevating Ty Dieffenbach or another option. UCLA’s defense has been opportunistic and strong in key spots, though the Oregon win was a tight, low-scoring grind. They are 3-2 on the total.

Power ratings and models generally view the teams as close on a neutral field, with UCLA’s undefeated record and recent cover streak supporting a short home favorite. Wisconsin’s defensive metrics and recent ATS success against quality opponents keep the number tight.

This is a physical Big Ten road test at the historic Rose Bowl. Wisconsin’s defense, which has limited scoring and yards effectively, faces a UCLA offense that has been efficient but may operate without its primary quarterback. The Bruins’ rushing attack and opportunistic defense will try to control tempo and create short fields. Wisconsin’s ability to stay balanced and avoid turnovers (they have been solid in that department) gives them a path to keep the game within a field goal or force a push/cover scenario.

The total in the low-to-mid 40s reflects both defenses’ ability to limit scoring. UCLA has trended over in some games but under in others, including the Oregon win; Wisconsin has mixed results but has shown it can grind. Weather at the Rose Bowl looks warm and clear. Any confirmed absence of Iamaleava tilts the matchup further toward Wisconsin’s physical style and the points.

UCLA leads the all-time series roughly 7-4. The teams have not met since 2000, when Wisconsin won 21-20. Wisconsin has taken the last three meetings overall (1993, 1998, and 2000). Games have tended to be competitive, with Wisconsin never winning by more than seven points in the series. Road games have been close historically, and the short number this week fits the pattern of tight contests rather than blowouts.

Key trends include Wisconsin’s success in lower-scoring or one-score environments against UCLA, and the general tendency for short favorites in Big Ten games to face cover pressure when the underdog has a strong defensive profile and recent form. The sample is small given the long gap between meetings, but the competitive nature of past results supports the idea that a 2.5–3 point home favorite is not a large edge.

UCLA is the undefeated home team with the cover streak and the higher scoring average, which is why the number has settled at a short 2.5–3 rather than something larger. Wisconsin’s 4-1 record, defensive strength, recent ATS success (including a road cover at Penn State), and the fact that short home favorites against teams already 4-1 carry a built-in tax make the points the side the number is arguing for. The quarterback uncertainty for UCLA adds another layer that favors the underdog staying within the number.

If the juice on Wisconsin +3 stays reasonable, the points with the team that has the better recent ATS profile and a defense capable of keeping the game tight is the lean. Shop the number (it has moved between 2.5 and 3.5 in spots) and monitor the UCLA quarterback situation through the week. In a Big Ten matchup with both teams playing well, the short home favorite is the tax; the points are the work.

Luke Fickell is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Wisconsin this season, including a 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS stretch after the Notre Dame loss, with the last two covers coming as a double-digit home favorite against Eastern Michigan and as a short road underdog at Penn State.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS overall and has already covered as a 9.5-point road underdog at Penn State. The Badgers are 1-0 ATS in their only true road game this season and are coming off a bye after a 31-3 home win over Michigan State.

UCLA is 5-0 ATS and is laying a short number at home after a ranked road win. Teams that are 5-0 ATS and coming off a ranked road win have covered less often when the next number is a field goal or less against a team that is already 3-2 ATS.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four games, including the road upset at Penn State. The Badgers are getting points on the road against a short home favorite that the market has already moved toward the visitor.

The number opened UCLA -3 and is now -2.5. Wisconsin is the side that has already covered as a road underdog this year. UCLA is the side that has not been asked to lay a short number after a ranked road win. That is the spot.

Bet the road dog of 3 or fewer in a Big Ten game against a home favorite that just lost its starting quarterback.
Road dogs of 3 or fewer against home favorites with a backup or first-time starter at quarterback (since the early 2000s): 27-14 ATS (65.9%). At -110, 27 wins and 14 losses is +11.5 unit$, ROI=28.0%.

Bet Wisconsin as a road underdog of 3 or fewer.
Wisconsin’s ATS record as a road underdog of 3 or fewer in conference games (last 15 years available): 8-4 (66.7%). At -110, that is +3.3 unit$, ROI=27.5%.

Bet against a short home favorite of 3 or fewer that is missing its starting quarterback.
Home favorites of 3 or fewer missing their starting quarterback for the first time that season (since 2005): 11-22 ATS (33.3%). At -110, 11 wins and 22 losses is -12.1 unit$, ROI=-36.7%

My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and BYU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This has the potential to be the game of the week but I'm expecting it to be a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair. Notre Dame checks in off a 58-7 dismantling of a bad Stanford team last week. The Irish did whatever they wanted on offense all afternoon long in that no-doubter. They'll obviously be up against a much more difficult challenge on Saturday as they head on the road to take on undefeated BYU. The Cougars have posted back-to-back 'under' results, allowing 10 points against both TCU and Iowa State. This game does represent a step up in class but I think they'll be up for it, noting they've given up a grand total of 67 points in five games this season. Notre Dame's offense gets a lot of the attention but the Irish defense has been dominant this season as well. They've allowed more than 13 points in a game just once through six contests, that coming in a 37-26 win at a good North Carolina team two weeks ago. Even in games where they've essentially called off the dogs and lifted starters, the Irish have still kept opposing offenses at bay. BYU knows its clearest path to pulling off the 'upset' here comes by taking care of the football and grinding it out on offense, effectively shortening proceedings. Take the under (8*).

1* on Rockets +5½

Ricky's 1* play on EDM.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Oilers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.

- The Oilers are 5-1 in the last 6 head to head meetings.

- The Oilers are 3-1 in their last 4 home games.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

PSP Data Driven 1* Sharks +1.5

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. The Sharks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. The Predators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.

For my best free pick on the board here for Thursday I am looking at the NFL and the Denver Broncos hosting the Seattle Seahawks. Two very good teams facing off here on Thursday Night Football I couldn’t get there with a premium pick but see a play here that deserves a free pick on. I am backing the Denver Broncos at home here plus the points. This team is always tough at Mile High no matter how good or bad this Broncos team is. Denver is playing good football winners or 3 of their last 4 games. Seattle off a bruising rival loss at home to the San Francisco 49ers. Look for a razor tight game that can go either way with that being said give me the points in my pocket here.

Play on the Denver Broncos plus the points rotation #110

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