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NCAAF SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:#018 - A team that just lost as a dog but got at least 22 first downs chokes are 161-275-8 ATS (36.9%) vs. a team off of a win in which they score 17+ points. -- Fade Army
NAVY is 8-1 ATS (12.67 ppg) since Nov 17, 2018 as a favorite.
These two teams are familiar with each others offense and are prepared to stop them. The last two meetings have only seen 27 points scored in each. There have been 14 unders and 2 overs in the last 16 meetings. The total opened at 45 but has dropped down to around 40 and we are giving it out as a free play.
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The set-up: Yes, Tom Brady has taken a major step back over the second half of the season, but I still think the veteran will have more than enough in the tank to bounce back here in this favorable spot. Off their first home loss since 2017, clearly the Pats are going to be in a foul mood today (I had a play on the Chiefs last Sunday.) It hasn't been all Brady's fault obviously, as he's lacking big time playmakers. That said, a game vs. Andy Dalton and the toothless Bengals is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion. With a tough game at home next week vs. a revenge-minded Bills team that's breathing down their neck, it's now or never for Bill Belichick and company in Cincinnati this weekend.
The pick: The Pats have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot for years as well, going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams with losing records (which includes going 4-0 ATS this season) and a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after having lost two out of their last three SU. The Bengals on the other hand are a money-burning 8-13 ATS in their last 21 at home, including 1-4 already this season. If you'd have asked Brady before the season started if he'd have been satisfied with a 13-3 campaign, I believe he'd have taken it on the spot. With a chance to still do that, I look for New England to finally start the turnaround this weekend. Consider laying the points.
1* FREE PLAY on New England.
The Rams enter this game having seen 7 of their L/8 games stay under the total, while Dallas has seen 2 of their L/3 stay under while averaging just 16 ppg of offence in those three tilts. The current form of both teams points to this being a grinding low scoring late season affair.
LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons for combined average 44.8 ppg. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 33.7 ppg. LA RAMS are 9-2 UNDER as a favorite this season with a combined average of 42.1 ppg going on the board.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 23-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.
NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 26-7 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 79% conversion rate!
Play – Chicago Bears (Game 309).
Edges – Bears: 7-0 SUATS when both teams are coming off a home game, and 5-0 SUATS in division games with QB Mitchell Tribusky when Chicago owns a winning record … Packers: 1-6 ATS in Last Home Games in division games when coming off a non-division game … We recommend a 1* play on Chicago. Thank you and good luck as always.
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