Alex Smart – Sports Handicapper

Rays right-hander Taj Bradley (3-2, 3.60 ERA) will start against the team he opposed in his MLB debut on April 12. He struck out eight in five innings of three-run ball, helping the Rays in their four-game series sweep and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation to manifest itself here today in Fenway. 

Rays are 13-5 in their last 18 during game 3 of a series.Rays are 39-15 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like BoSox Starter Houck. 

TAMPA BAY is 37-13  against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Play on Tampa Bay to win

The Jays won the first two games of this low scoring series , but Im betting their vaunted but recently struggling offense will have problems today dealing with the ghost forkball  a pitch used by Mets right-hander Kodai Senga (5-3, 3.44 ERA) . The pitch has accounted for 39 of the 70 strikeouts Senga has in 10 starts this season, according to information provided by the Mets. 

NY METS are 36-19  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. SHOWALTER is 29-13 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 as the manager of NY METS. TORONTO is 11-18 against the money line after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons. 

NY METS are 45-33  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 5-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY METS) - after scoring and allowing 4 runs or less last 3 games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Mets to win 

NYY starter German is in good form so far this season, garnering a 3-3 record along with a 3.98 ERA in 10 starts. He’s struck out 53 in 54.1 innings . His 0.98 WHIP is of the top tier variety and he must be respected here in LA on a vleu line  tonight .GERMAN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.167. I know Miller the young Dodgers right handed  hurler, has been strong since coming up from the minors because of rotational  injuries, going  2-0 along with a  1.64 ERA in his first two MLB starts, however, Im betting  regression is imminent against an explosive veteran Yankees lineup that could easily make this kid look mortal. Note: Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games.Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.

Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.

MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 34-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NYY to win 

The Nuggets are still well rested , while the Heat  must still be feeling some exhaustion after their grueling 7 game series, with the Celtics and than immediately  leaving for the Rockies to play in the Mile High City. This is never an easy venue to play in and nothing will change tonight for a Heat side, that according to my current power rankings is over matched . Hey Im not knocking the Heat, as they are a talented hard working group, but the physical toll of play off hoops Im betting will take its toll on them vs a very fresh Denver side, that has had one game to get  the rust off, and now could easily be even  more explosive in game 2 of this series. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS  in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season. MIAMI is 0-11 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.Heat are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Denver is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 in this series including 4-0 SU/ATS as hosts. 

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 13-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a  84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover