Alex Smart – Sports Handicapper

The Kings are in a huge letdown spot after losing in OT to the Isles last night, after taking a 2-0 lead into the third period. Now on tired legs  on the road the Kings are fade material in this spot play vs a Rangers side that are are 9-1 ATS against excellent power play teams  like the Kings- scoring on 19%  or more of their chances this season.

NY RANGERS are 8-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season (lost both times and will be very motivated to bounce back)

NY RANGERS is 2-0-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons.

NHL  team against the money line (LOS ANGELES) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 11-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Rangers to win 

Iowa swept the season series against the Wolverines a season ago, including a 93-84 overtime victory in Carver in January.Iowa is 4-0 inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season, averaging 99.8 points per game. The Hawkeyes are shooting 51.1 percent from the floor in four home games

Iowa is one the nation’s top offensive teams, averaging 85.3 points in nine games. The Hawkeyes are tops in the Big Ten and 22nd nationally. The team has scored at least 84 points in six games, including 110 points in the season opener against North Dakota. There is just to much fire power here for   a struggling Michigan Wolverines side to contain. Since starting out the season with three straight victories, the Wolverines have lost five of their last six games.

The Hawkeyes have won seven of the nine meetings between the two schools in Iowa City since 2012 and get the nod again here today.

IOWA is 11-2 ATS  in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons. IOWA is 25-13 ATS   as a home favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Iowa to cover

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

COLORADO is 24-11 UNDER   versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136 ppg scored. COLORADO is 15-3 UNDER L/18in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games with a combined average of 139.8 ppg scored.

CBB  teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MIAMI) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game - shooting 57% or higher, allowing 43% or lower are 42-14 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Grant is 16-5 UNDER L/21 vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game in all games  he has coached with a combined average of 125.2 ppg scored..

CBB neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent are 33-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Play under

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

IOWA ST is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 145.6 ppg scored.

PRAIRIE VIEW A&M is 10-1 OVER after playing 5 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157 ppg scored. PRAIRIE VIEW A&M is 21-9 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997 with a combined average of 149.2 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (PRAIRIE VIEW A&M) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 57-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play over

These teams have seen alot of low scoring games this season, thanks in part to a lack of fluid offense and strong up-trending defenses. With back up QBs expected to start today another low scoring event is my bet. 

 The  Raiders have gone under in 9 of 12 tilts this season and have gone under in 5 of 6 at home, averaging a just  36.8 combined PPG in the process . Meanwhile the Vikings have also gone 9-3 under  and when they are favored have stayed under in all 6 as chalk with a combined average of   35.1 ppg getting scored.

Teams like the Raiders and the Vikings both off a bye week dating back 3 season have seen , 15 of the L/17 stay under  the offered total for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 32-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored.

Play under

Bengals QB Browning shocked alot of ppl in his big performance last week that saw him break some records for a back up , but Im betting he will suffer regression here this week, after that miraculous 34-31 OT underdog win vs the Jags.  This is an important game for both the Bengals and the  Colts, as post season implication prevail in what should be a grueling affair.   NFL  team (CINCINNATI) - off a huge upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-21 ATS L/30 seasons for a 88% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Colts to cover 

Texans behind rookie QB Stroud are getting alot of accolades, but after escaping Broncos last drive last week that stalled on Houstons 8 yard line, they enter into this game as road chalk something that they dont have a great history of being successful at ,as is evident by failing in 6 of their  L/7 in the chalk role. Add to that the Texans lost  one their top WR Dell, which Im betting will be a blow to them in this spot and you have a situation that could easily see the under performing ( Im being nice here) pulling off the upset and more importantly getting us the cover.

HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Jets 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in this series.

Play on NY Jets to cover

Its not easy going against a Cowboys side that  has won 14 consecutive games at home ,but thats what Im about to recommend we do. I know the Eagles had their clocks cleaned vs the SF 49ers last week, but even top tier teams like the Eagles can have an off week. I also know the Boyz despite of their strong current run still have not beaten an .above .500 team this season, and do most of their damage against sub par sides.  With that said and considering the fact that the Eagles when  QB Jalen Hurts, is on the field play vs an above .500 squad like the Cowboys the Eagles  have gone  14-1 SU  L/15 . 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS  in road games after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a team with a struggling defense (335 to 370 YPG), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 8-18 L/10 seasons for ago against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The Chiefs have not performed optimally of late , but don't be mistaken this a top tier team that is capable of capturing a Super Bowl and now in bounce back mode after a down effort vs the Packers last time out. Meanwhile, nothing has come easily for the Bills this season, and Im betting they will find themselves in a tough spot this week in KC. Buffalo has failed to cover 7 of their L/8. BUFFALO is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 41-21 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY. bottom line is here, is that Im big believer in Mahomes and the Chiefs, add to that I have some futures bets on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and you might understand why Im taking this position. 

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover

These teams are explosive offensive sides with Dallas averaging 33.2 ppg while Philadelphia is averaging 27.4 ppg. Also recent meetings between these sides have see the manifestation of high scoring affairs, with an average 60.2 ppg scored in the L/6 overall meetings with all 6 going over the total.DALLAS is 7-0 OVER \n home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 62.8 ppg scored. DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 63.2 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 OVER  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.4 ppg scored. Everything points to this being. aback and forth affair that eclipses the total. 

Play on the over