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Alex Smart – Sports Handicapper
Alex Smart Sports Handicapper has been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. His handicapping can be best referred to as the ‘The Smart Money Approach” as Smart leaves no stone unturned and has a large database of information and statistics. He also takes into consideration factors such as injuries, current and historical trends, and form as well as factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
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PICKS IN PROGRESS
RICH HILL (L) vs. JASON VARGAS (L)
Vargas is 2-6 with an 8.60 ERA in nine starts this season and has a 9.38 ERA in 11 career starts with the Mets and I'm betting he gets rocked again today. Meanwhile, the Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill (1-2, 4.99 ERA), who is scheduled to make his second start since coming off the disabled list last Tuesday, and with the ruststil on looks vulnerable vs the Mets batting order. Hill is 1-2 with an 8.00 ERA in six career games (four starts) against the Mets. I'm expecting some excessive runs today in a tiltI have pegged to eclipse the Total.
Over is 8-2-1 in Dodgers last 11 vs. National League East.
Mets have gone over 10 straight times by an average of 5.2 rag as a 140+ dog off a game as a dog in which they lost by 5+ runs.( The Dodgers scored 8 runs in a 8-3 win in yesterdays matchup)
LA DODGERS are 17-8 OVER in road games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) this season with a combined average of 10.8 rag scored.
MLB Home teams (NY METS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or worse) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 63-33 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the OVER
NICK PIVETTA (R) vs. JEFRY RODRIGUEZ (R)
The Nationals will send the inexperienced Jerry Rodriguez to the hill to make his second career Major League start. The kid like so many young pitchers that get the call-up to the majors have some good stuff, but putting it to proper use is a constant issue as was the case was for Rodrigues , as is evident by allowing five runs on four hits in five innings in his first start. I'm betting he will once again get schooled by a Phillies team that are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Meanwhile, Monday against the Cardinals, Pivetta looked rejuvenated after a couple down efforts and generated 11 of 21 strikeouts with his nasty curveball and struck out a career-high 13 in 7 1/3 innings. When the curve is working well he is hard to beat and gets my backing here tonight. Nationals are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Phillies have won the first two games of this series by a 17-5 count and are more than capable of completing the sweep with a win tonight in DC vs a struggling Nats team that has lost 7 of their L/9. Note: Philadelphia is 4-0 L/4 in games 3 of a series.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-9 against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.WASHINGTON is 9-15 against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
MLB team (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA 3.70 to 4.20)-NL, after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR are 57-102 L/21 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the money line
LUKE WEAVER (R) vs. JHOULYS CHACIN (R)
The Cardinals beat the Brewers yesterday, but the
Cardinals are just 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Today the Cardinals who have lost 8 of their L/11 overall will have their work out for them vs a hurler Chacin who has been very effective at home this season where he's posted a 2.31 ERA in six starts at Miller Park.Overall, the righty has made a team-leading 16 starts this season and is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA. He is holding opponents to a .231 BA average and a 1.24 WHIP while striking out 66 in 87 2/3 innings and must be respected here in his abilities to make his team very competitive in this spot.
CHACIN is 8-1 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record).CHACIN is also 10-3 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Meanwhile, WEAVER the Cards starter is 1-8 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) .
MLB Road teams (ST LOUIS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .165 or worse over their last 3 games, in June games are 18-48 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.
MLBRoad teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a one run loss are 24-60 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Brewers are 21-9 in their last 30 home games.
Play on Milwaukee to win on the money line
Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to in on the money line
CALEB SMITH (L) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)
German Marquez (5-7, 5.20) will start for the Rockies. He been consistently hit hard this season and is 0-2 with along with the bloated 5.23 ERA in two starts against the Marlins, including April 28 when he gave up three runs (one earned) in six innings in Colorado's 4-1 loss.The Rockies are 7-8 in starts by Marquez, who is 2-4 with a 7.45 ERA in eight starts at Coors Field this season and is fade material in his current lower tier form. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 5-1 in their starters Smiths last 6 starts.
Rockies are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.Rockies are 3-7 in Marquezs last 10 home starts.
COLORADO is 7-15 L/22 against the money line in home games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 6-2 against the money line after 7 or more consecutive road games this season.COLORADO is 9-20 against the money line in home games after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last couple of seasons.COLORADO is 4-15 against the money line after batting .333 or better over a 5 game span over the last couple of seasons.
Marlins are 16-7 in the last 23 meetings.
Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the money line
MATT BOYD (L) vs. ADAM PLUTKO (R)
The pitching matchup Sunday will be Detroit left-hander Matthew Boyd (4-5, 3.63 ERA) vs. Cleveland right-hander Adam Plutko (3-1, 5.04). Boyd will make his second start against the Indians this year. His first one was a good one. On April 10, the Tigers lost to Cleveland 2-1. Boyd worked seven innings, giving up one run and three hits . Meanwhile, Plutko's last start was a 5-1 loss to the White Sox on June 12 in which he pitched 4 2/3 innings, giving up five runs and eight hits with five strikeouts and three walks and is fade material in his current form according to my power rankings.
I know the Tigers have not been playing well recently vs the Tribe, but today Im betting they have an edge , and give us very good value on the money line.
Tigers are 4-0 in Boyds last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
CLEVELAND is 10-14 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.DETROIT is 17-11 against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.Tigers are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
MLB Favourites with a money line of -110 or higher (CLEVELAND) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL and were 38-67 L/5 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Detroit to win on the money line
Dallas is forming into top gear as was evident when they hammered the LA Sparks by a 100-72 count in their last trip to the hardwood. Meanwhile, the Storm look to be trending downward, after a loss to the young Vegas Aces last week and than had to play a top tier of defence to defeat lowly Indiana last time out. From my own perspective it just seems like Storm has lost its offensive flow, which is not a good omen for them facing a side that is starting to heat up offensively. With that said, lets lay some short lumber with the confident home side with momentum on their sides .
Storm are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.
Wings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Wings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.Wings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Wings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Wings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, on Sunday games are 8-31 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of 7 points a game.
WNBA team vs the money line (SEATTLE) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 44% or worse on the season, after a game where a team made 55% of their free throws or worse are 20-62 L/21 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors with the average loss coming by 7.2 pig.
WNBA Underdogs vs the money line (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are a long term bad bet , on a short line as they are just 142-358 for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin loss coming 5.2 peg.
Play on Dallas Wings to cover
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 18 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.
My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!
I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.