Brandon Lee – Sports Handicapper

FREE PICK: Los Angeles Rams -9
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 265

You aren't going to make a profit long-term betting a lot of big road favorites, but I just can't help myself with the Rams as a mere 9-point favorite at the Giants on Sunday. I just don't know how New York can make a game of it with all the injuries they are dealing with. 

There's a good chance starting quarterback Daniel Jones will be cleared to play after leaving last week's game against the Cowboys with a concussion, but he's got a bunch of backups to work with. Giant will be without starting running back Saquon Barkley and one of their top wide outs in Kenny Golladay. They also don't figure to have emerging rookie wideout Kadarius Toney, who left their last game with an ankle injury. Wide outs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are also both questionable to play. Same goes for starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and left guard Ben Bredeson. 

How in the world are the Giants going to generate enough offense here to keep pace with Matthew Stafford and that potent Rams offense? Keep in mind New York's defense has regressed a ton from last year. They are giving up 27.8 ppg, 409 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

Giants are just 8-20 ATS last 28 off a road blowout loss by 21 or more points, while the Rams have covered 21 of their last 30 vs fellow NFC opponents. LA is also 17-5 ATS last 22 on the road vs bad defensive teams that are giving up 27 or more points/game. Give me Rams -9! 

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50* (NFL) - Seahawks/Steelers SNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +5)

I absolutely love the Seahawks as a 5-point rod dog against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Everyone is writing off Seattle after the injury to Russell Wilson. The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with betting this team, even against an uninspiring Steelers team. 

I'm not going to sit here and say that backup Geno Smith is anywhere close to as good as Wilson, but there's a lot to like about how well Smith played in relief of Wilson against the Rams last week. He should be even better with a full week of prep. 

You also got to factor in how tough it can be for a team like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown with how much they struggle to score on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 18.8 ppg. The only teams with a worse scoring offense are the Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Texans and Jaguars. It's also an offense that is without their top wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster and has a couple of other wide outs in Chase Claypool and James Washington listed as questionable. 

Pittsburgh's also got a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. Give me the Seahawks +5!

40* (NFL) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Broncos -3.5) 

I'll lay the 3.5 with Denver at home against the Raiders on Sunday. I just think this Las Vegas team is in a really bad place with what's transpired over the last week with watching their head coach Jon Gruden basically be forced into resigning.

It's just a bad situation for a team that came into this season with expectations of at least making the playoffs. We have seen the offense take a massive step back the last couple of weeks and now they have to try to figure out on the fly how to go forward without their play caller in Gruden. Say what you want about Gruden as a head coach, the guy is a good offensive play caller. 

Making matters even worse is the Raiders are going up against a pretty good Broncos defense. Now you can't get too carried away with the numbers given who Denver has played, but you also can't ignore the fact that they are 3rd in the NFL right now giving up just 292.4 ypg. They also rank in the Top 10 in the NFL vs both the run and the pass. 

I can assure you that the Broncos will not in the least bit feel bad about beating up on the Raiders when they are down. These two teams despise each other. 

I'm not wild about the Denver offense, but I would much rather have the Broncos offense than the Raiders defense. Denver should do more than enough to get the win and cover at home. Give me the Broncos -3.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (OVER 51.5) 

I see some value with the OVER 51.5 in Sunday's big AFC showdown between the Ravens and Chargers. These two teams have shown that they can light up the scoreboard. The Chargers have scored at least 28 points in each of their last 3 games and the Ravens just put up 31 last week against the Colts. 

The even bigger thing for me is how these two teams matchup. While Lamar Jackson has been throwing it all over his last two opponents (758 yards, including 442 last week against the Colts), Baltimore figures to be much more balanced in this game. The Chargers are the worst team in the league against the run. Not only are they giving up a league worst 157.6 ypg (12.4 ypg more than the next closest team), they are giving up a league worst 5.6 yards/carry. 

As for the Ravens offense, they have looked a little better here of late, giving up just 16.3 ppg over their last 3, it's come against the Lions, Broncos and Colts. It's also worth noting they were lucky to only give up 25 to Indy. The Colts had over 500 yards of offense with 390 thru the air. 

I just don't see them being able to contain Justin Herbert and this explosive Chargers offense. I think there's a really good chance that we could see both teams go for 30+ points and all we need is for something like 28-24 to cash a winning ticket. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

40* (NFL) - Big Money VEGAS INSIDER (Packers -4) 

I can't help myself here but to lay the 4-points on the road with the Packers. I know it's not wise to lay points on the road in division games, but I just don't see these two teams being anywhere close in terms of talent. 

I could be dead wrong here, but I got a pretty good feeling that the Bears holding the Raiders to just 9 points and 252 total yards last week was more a result of the news surrounding Gruden than it was this Chicago defense. 

I also think with the Bears defense, they are much better suited to stop teams that want to run the ball. They just don't have that great of talent in the secondary and are tasked in this game with going up against one of the best QBs in the league in Aaron Rodgers. 

I know Green Bay isn't exactly blowing teams out, but I've really liked what I've seen out of Aaron Rodgers early on. He looks to be 100% locked in and when he's going well this team is tough to beat. 

You also have to factor in just how bad this Bears offense has been since Justin Fields became the starter. It's a bit comical how scared Chicago is of letting Fields throw the ball. How in the world is he going to do enough here to keep pace with Rodgers and that Packers offense? I don't see it. Give me Green Bay -4! 

40* (NFL) - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER (Panthers +1)

I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 1-point home dog against the Minnesota Vikings. I think we are seeing some value with Carolina, as I think they should be -2.5 at home. Big reason I think we are getting value with the Panthers is last week's horrific 2nd half against the Eagles. 

Carolina couldn't have looked any better in the 1st half of that game. If they just have a little bit of ball skills on that fumble they botched in the end zone, they probably win that game and cover. Instead it was just a safety and the offense fell apart in the 2nd half. 

I think losing that game and Sam Darnold kind of reverting back to his old ways with the Jets has really reversed how people view this team. They no longer see them as a legit playoff contender. 

I think that's a mistake and I think the Panthers respond in a big way. I really don't have a lot of concerns with the Carolina defense. They did their part once again, holding the Eagles to just 273 total yards and dominating the time of possession by more than 10 minutes. 

Offensively, Darnold isn't as bad as what he showed in the 2nd half of that game against the Eagles and let's not forget the Panthers offense was without their best player in Christian McCaffrey. He was close to returning for that game and as long as there are no setbacks in practice, he will be on the field Sunday. 

As for the Vikings, I just don't think there as good as what people think. Sure they have had a couple close games not go their way, but the fact of the matter is this team continues to find ways to lose games. They needed a last second field goal after blowing a 16-6 lead in the final 5 minutes against the winless Lions at home. That comes after a week where the offense couldn't do anything at home against the Browns. 

Vikings are just 3-7 ATS last 10 off a home win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a close win by 6 points or less. Panthers have covered 10 of their last 15 with a line of +3 to -3 and are 5-1 ATS last 3 years off a upset loss as a home favorite. Give me Carolina +1! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5) 

I don't care what the number is, I want to be on the OVER in Chiefs' games as much as possible. At least until that defense shows us any sort of inkling that they can stop the opposing team from moving the ball up and down the field. 

There's just not much to like with what you have seen from that KC defense. They don't have the size up front to keep teams from running the ball, they don't tackle great and they get zero pass rush. 

I don't care if you think Washington's offense is good or not. They are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. Just look at what the Eagles did against this KC defense a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs weren't able to force a single punt out of Philly and that same Eagles offense managed just 273 yards last week against the Panthers (punted 5 times and had a safety in just the 1st half). 

On the flip side of this, I still think Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is one of the best in the league. They have just had to press so much on offense against good teams because of how bad the defense has been, they haven't quite performed up to potential. Washington isn't good enough on defense to slow this offense down. They have given up 43 to the Bills, 30 to the Falcons and 33 to the Saints in their last 3 games. KC is going to score 30 and maybe even into the 40s. I think Washington also has a good shot here to put up close to 30 points. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR (Browns -2.5) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Cardinals. Arizona might be the only team left in the NFL with an undefeated record, but they are nowhere close to the best team in the league.

They should have lost to the Vikings at home in Week 2, caught the Rams in a massive letdown spot off their big win over Tom Brady and the Bucs and likely lose last week to the 49ers if San Francisco has Jimmy G at quarterback. 

I think if Arizona is simply 4-1 instead of 5-0, they wouldn't be getting near the respect they are getting in this game. I 

I was on the Browns in last week’s brutal loss at the Chargers where they dominated LA for over half of that game. If anything that loss makes me like Cleveland even more in this spot, as they are going to be highly motivated to rebound at home.

I also like the matchup. I think the biggest thing you got to look at with the Browns is whether or not the opposing team can stop the run. Arizona has struggled in that area of the game, Cardinals rank 28th against the run giving up 139.0 ypg and are giving up 5.4 yards/carry, which ranks 31st in the league. 

I also still think this Browns defense is one of the better units in the league and are well suited to slow down Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense. You also have to keep in mind that Murray is dealing with an arm injury. He did not look like his old self in last week's game against the 49ers and they need him to be great to even have a shot in this game. Give me Cleveland -2.5!