Brandon Lee – Sports Handicapper

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Miss St -4) 

*Analysis Coming* 

10* FREE NFL PICK (Texans -7) 

I’m sure this line is inflated a bit, but there’s just no way I’m risking my hard earned cash on this Jets team. We don’t even know if New York is going to show up for this game. A win here and the Jets will be flirting with not even having a pick in the Top 10.

Even if the Jets lay it all on the line in this game, there’s still a decent chance they lose by double-digits. Houston is the far superior team and I have to believe the Texans know just how important this game is. Nothing is a sure thing in the NFL and a loss this week and the pressure will really start to mount. I expect this team to be 100% locked in and that should be more than enough for them to cover this spread.

I’ve got major concerns for Jets’ rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. I get the feeling he might be one of those guys who has all the things scouts look for in the physical attributes of a quarterback, but not the smarts to be a top notch signal caller in the NFL. He’s thrown 15 interceptions with 8 of those coming in his last 4 starts. He’s also completing just 55.9% of his attempts and only putting up 6.72 yards/pass attempt. He’s not going to have leading rusher (Isaiah Crowell) or leading recover (Quincy Enunwa), as both are out for this game.

I just think with the talent the Texans have on the defensive side of the ball, most notably J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, it’s pretty much a guarantee that Darnold makes a costly mistake. I also don’t think he’s capable of leading this team back if things were to spiral out of control early.

Houston hasn’t disappointed in this spot of late, as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Jets on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Texans -7!

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50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns +3) 

I just think the injuries have become too much for Denver to overcome. On offense they playing a bunch of inexperienced receivers after trading away Demaryius Thomas and then losing Emmanuel Sanders to a season ending injury in their Week 13 win over the Bengals. Against the 49ers, Case Keenum completed 24 of 42 attempts for just 186 yards, which comes out to a dreadful 4.4 yards/attempt.

I think not having anyone to really respect in the passing game allowed the 49ers to really load up agains the run and not let Philip Lindsay beat them. San Francisco held Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Lindsay had 346 yards and 5 scores over the previous 3 games. Cleveland just held a pretty good Panthers rushing attack to 96 yards, so they can definitely keep Lindsay in check.

On the flip side of this, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Browns’ rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers in that 29-13 loss at Houston (outgained Texans 428-384), Cleveland could easily be riding a 4-game winning streak. I also think this is a completely different and much better team since they got rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.

Maybe the most important thing is the Browns are playing with a ton of confidence and if you look at the media coverage on this team, players actually think they got a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, whether it be as a Wild Card or somehow winning the AFC North. Regardless of how slim their chances really are, that’s the mentality you want to see from a team in this spot. I definitely don’t get that same vibe from the Broncos. It’s almost as if the loss the 49ers sucked the life out of this team.

It’s also worth pointing out that Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, 4-9 ATS last 13 vs a team with a losing record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring less than 15 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they didn’t cover the number. Give me the Browns +3!

40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.

I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.

Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.

The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.

While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.

As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.

They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!

40* NEW ORLEANS BOWL VEGAS ATS NO-BRAINER (Middle Tenn +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Middle Tennessee as they are a serious live dog in this one. 

I just think there’s an art to getting a team to play well in a bowl game and clearly Scott Satterfield had something figured out. I just think him leaving for Louisville really throws a wrench into things and takes some of the focus off the actual game.

You got a defensive line coach that has to handle a job he’s not exactly prepared for and get his team ready in less than two weeks. There’s got to be some players thinking about transferring and I’m sure they are all checking in daily to see who they will get to replace Satterfield.

As far as the value is concerned with the number. Appalachian State started out the year 8-2 ATS, but they were overpriced in their two big games to end the year. They were a 12-point favorite in a 11-point win against Troy and favored by 18 in a 11-point win over Lafayette in title game. I just think 7-points is a lot to ask them to lay without their head coach against a team as talented as Middle Tennessee.

Not only were 3 of the 5 losses for the Blue Raiders true road games against SEC opponents, but their other two losses came by a combined 5-points. I just feel like a lot of people look at their 8-5 record and think they aren’t that great of a team coming out of Conference USA.

One of the big reasons I like them in this game is senior quarterback Brent Stockstill, who came into this season already the all-time leading passer in Middle Tennessee history. He completed 71% of his attempts for more than 3,200 yards and posted a 28-8 TD-INT ratio. He’s the son of the head coach and I have to think the entire team is going to play their hearts out to make sure his final game is one to remember. Give me the Blue Raiders +7!

50* NEW MEXICO BOWL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (N Texas +8.5)

I like the value here with North Texas. I not only think they are good enough to cover more than a touchdown spread, I think they can win this game outright. This isn’t a knock on Utah State, as I was really high on that team coming into the year. I just think these are two evenly matched teams.

I also think North Texas might be the more motivated team in this one. The Mean Green, they have a chance here to do something no other team has done at North Texas in roughly 70 years, win 10 games in a single season. Not to mention the fact that they are still searching for that first bowl win under Littrell. Speaking of Littrell, he just turned down an offer to be the new head coach at Kansas State to stay with the program. I think that says a lot about how much he likes the team he has and you have to believe the players will want to show him he made the right decision to stick around.

As for Utah State, I think there’s a lot of factors working against them. They watched their head coach, Matt Wells, leave to take over the job at Texas Tech. He’s going to take with him several coaches, including both the Aggies offensive and defensive coordinator. While some of the assistants will stick around for the bowl, I just think it’s a lot of distractions to deal with. 

Keep in mind that Utah State couldn’t have ended the year on a much worse note. The Aggies only loss in Mountain West play was a costly one and it came in their very last game of the regular season. The Aggies were a perfect 7-0 in MWC play until they fell 33-24 at Boise State on Nov. 24. That knocked them out of the MWC title game, which is what this team had their hearts set on playing in. 

More times than not, teams who suffer a devastating loss to end their season, have a really hard time showing up in their bowl game. I think it will be that much harder without their head coach and the fact that they are playing in what’s viewed as a pretty meaningless bowl game against a team they are expected to have no problem beating. 

Another big thing here for me is the North Texas quarterback. Junior Mason Fine is one of the best kept secrets in the country. Fine completed 65% of his 457 attempts for 3,734 yards with 27 touchdowns to a mere 5 interceptions. He threw for 4,052 yards with a 31-15 TD-INT ratio as a sophomore.

While Fine is a big reason for their success, he’s got some playmakers working alongside him. Running back DeAndre Torrey has just 942 yards, but is averaging 5.9 yards/carry and has 14 rushing touchdowns. Rico Bussey Jr. has hauled in 68 passes for 1,017 yards and 12 scores. Jalen Guyton has 50 receptions for 702 yards and 5 scores and Jaelon Darden has caught 46 for 567 and 4 scores.

I think the fact that the Mountain West is viewed as a much stronger conference than C-USA and the fact that Utah State nearly won at Michigan State in non-conference play, is a big reason why this line is so high. I get Arkansas was one of the worst teams in the SEC, but North Texas whooped them 44-17 in Fayetteville. Give me the Mean Green +8.5!