Brandon Lee – Sports Handicapper

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Fighting Irish as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Tar Heels. I was on the unfortunate end of a crushing last second loss by North Carolina this weekend at home against Virginia. Keep in mind they let one get away last weekend in an OT loss to Duke and went to Wake Forest on Tuesday and got annihilated 57-74. 

It's just not easy bouncing back from a loss like that, especially when they stack up on each other. It doesn't help that it's a lost season for UNC, whose only hope of making the NCAA Tournament is by winning the ACC Tournament. 

With another big game at Louisville on deck, I just have a hard time believing UNC is going to be mentally ready for this game just 1 day after the heartbreaking loss to Virginia. As for Notre Dame, they can't wait to get back on the court after getting embarrassed at Duke over the weekend. Irish also will have plenty of motivation here as they are still "on the bubble" and have revenge from an earlier loss to UNC way back in November. Give me Notre Dame -3.5! 

10* NCAAB FREE PICK (Xavier -1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Musketeers as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against the Red Storm. I really like the price here with Xavier, as I feel like they are going to have an edge here in several key areas. 

St. John's did just win in this exact same spot, defeating Providence at home 66-61 as a 5.5-point dog on Wednesday. I think that is playing into the value with the Musketeers. Xavier did win the earlier meeting 75-67 at home and let's not overlook the fact that that win over the Friars is the Red Storm's only other conference win against someone not name DePaul. 

Another huge factor here is St John's is down one of their best players in Mustapha Heron (recently lost for the season). Heron scored 11 points in that first meeting, one of only three Red Storm in double-figures. He's their No. 2 scorer for the season and one of their best 3-point threats. Only one other player on the team has more than 15 made 3-pointers (Figueroa). 

The one thing that St. John's does well is force turnovers and protecting the ball has been a problem for Xavier this season. Musketeers turned it over 19 times to the Red Storm's 7 in the first meeting and still won by 8.

When they don't force a turnover it's pretty easy to exploit St. John's 1/2 court defense. Xavier should also have huge edges here in free throws (both attempted and made), rebounding and 3-point shooting. If they take care of the ball just a little, they win by double-digits. Give me the Musketeers -1.5! 

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