Brandon Lee – Sports Handicapper

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Giants +6.5)

I know New York hasn’t looked good in their first two games, but there is still a ton of talent on this roster. I fully expect the Giants to make some adjustments with their offensive line and make sure that Eli Manning gets some protection.

It’s also going to help that Odell Beckham Jr will be another week removed from his ankle injury. He was clearly not 100% last week against the Lion. He caught just 4 passes for 36 yards. Look for a much bigger game out of him. I also like what I’m hearing about New York making a move to Orleans Darkwa at running back. He’s impressed in limited action and any improvement with their ground attack will help the passing game get going.

This is also a hurting Eagles defense right now. They aren’t expected to have their top corner in Ronald Darby for 4-6 weeks to start the year. They could also be without starting defensive end Brandon Graham, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Philadelphia also has starting safety Rodney McLeod and backup Jaylen Watkins listed as questionable with hamstring injuries.

What you can’t forget with the Giants is that while the offense isn’t performing up to their potential, they still have one of the leagues top defenses. One that I think really matchups up well with an Eagles offense that struggles to run the ball. At the same time, Carson Wentz is a QB that likes to take chances and will turn the ball over.

Keep in mind the Eagles had just 13-points against a Chiefs defense missing one of it’s best players in Eric Berry up until the final seconds when they added a late TD. I’m not saying the Giants win outright, but given how desperate they are to avoid an 0-3 start and the defenses ability to keep them in the game, I would have to take the points in this one.

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Falcons -3) 

I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't expecting a lot out of the Falcons this season coming into the year, but I really like what I have seen in the first two weeks and like the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal on the road against a Lions team that has benefited from playing a couple teams with horrible offensive line play in the Cardinals and Giants. 

I just think Detroit's defense is getting way too much respect against this high-powered Atlanta offense and while the Lions will score, I don't see them scoring enough to keep this game close. Teams listed as a dog that have allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their first two games are 34-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Give me the Falcons -3! 

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucs -2.5) 

I don't think the public is quite on par with how good this Bucs team is and I just see too much value here with Tampa laying less than a field goal with Minnesota missing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum was terrible in place of Bradford last week against the Steelers, completing just 20 of 37 for 167 yards (4.5 yards/attempt). He's just good enough to get the job done here against a stingy Bucs defense. 

I also really like this Tampa Bay offense. The addition of DeSean Jackson really opens up the offense, as you have to worry about him going deep and at the same time you have one of the elite wide outs on the other side in Mike Evans. As long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa should have no problem securing a win here. Give me the Bucs -2.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) 

Seattle’s defense has the same feel as the one that routinely finished near the top of the league in defensive metrics. In Week 1 they kept Aaron Rogers and the Packers offense off the scoreboard until the final second of the 3rd quarter. Last week they allowed a mere 3 field goals and 248 yards to the 49ers, basically winning them the game.

While the defense has been playing lights out, the offense has been hard to watch. Seattle could only muster 225 yards against Green Bay in Week 1, a number that looks a lot worse after watching Matt Ryan and the Falcons pick apart the Packer defense in Week 2. Like we see with a lot of the teams struggling offensively early on in 2017, the offensive line is the main culprit for the struggles. Seattle has put very little resources into their offensive line and lost their starting left tackle before the season ever started.

They do seem to eventually figure it out up front, but I don’t see it happening this week against a stingy Titans defense that is very strong up front. Last year Tennessee was 2nd in the NFL agains the run, allowing just 88.3 ypg. They upgraded the secondary in the offseason and should post better numbers overall.

Another thing I like here is that Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota are two very similar quarterbacks. Both rely a lot on their mobility to extend plays. That’s not easy to prepare for, but it should be for these two teams, given they go against their own mobile quarterback in practice. I just don’t see either team reaching 20 points, unless we have a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns. I’ll take my chances on that not being the case.

UNDER is 9-1 in the Seahawks 10 road games under Pete Carroll, where they come in having scored 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average final score in these games was a mere 32.5 and half points, giving us a full 10-points of value here.

40* NFL UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK (Bengals +8)

The biggest issue I have with this spread is Green Bay’s injury situation on offense. Multiple members of the offensive line are banged up, as are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Those injuries clearly played a role in last week’s struggles against the Falcons and it remains to be seen how healthy and effective any of those injured players will be against the Bengals.

One thing that’s been lost in the shuffle of Cincinnati’s disastrous start to the season is that the Bengals have actually played solid defense the first two weeks. Considering how little support the offense has provided, the Bengals giving up just 33 points over two games is rather impressive. Geno Atkins already has three sacks on the season, and I would expect he and the team’s other pass-rushing threats will be able to create some problems against a banged up Green Bay offensive line. 

Obviously, the Bengals actually being able to locate the end zone will be important to the Bengals being able to beat the spread. But if Cincinnati can keep feeding A.J. Green the ball as much as possible, he’s bound to make something positive happen. I also don’t see the Packers having an easy time moving the ball either. This could end up being a low-scoring game that helps Cincinnati stay close and beat the spread.