Brandon Lee – Sports Handicapper

Wednesday's MLB Free Pick: San Diego Padres -119

I'll take my chances with the Padres as a slim -119 home favorite against the Brewers in Wednesday's series finale. This is just too good a price to pass up with San Diego at home given the big advantage they have on the mound. 

Padres will send out Yu Darvish, who has a solid 3.91 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 8 starts. SD has won 6 of those 8 starts, including a perfect 3-0 record at home, where Darvish has a sensational 1.37 ERA and 0.661 WHIP. Not to mention, Darvish owns a 2.13 ERA and 0.921 WHIP over 7 career starts vs the Brewers. 

Milwaukee will counter with Aaron Ashby, who after a couple of decent starts, was rocked for 6 runs on 6 hits and 4 BBs in just 4 innings in his last start at Atlanta. Ashby has had major control problems. He's walked 13 guys in 13 2/3 innings, totaling at least 4 free passes in each of his 3 starts. Give me the Padres -119! 

Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10)

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MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Rangers. This is a sneaky good pitching matchup. Texas' will send out Glenn Otto, who has a 2.81 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 3 road starts. Last time out, he gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings at Houston. 

Reid Detmers will get the start for Los Angeles. He's coming off a subpar outing at Texas, but that was to be expected in his first start following his no hitter against the Rays were he threw 108 pitches (88 was his previous high). Detmers has had a full 7 days off since his last start and owns a 1.96 ERA and 0.565 WHIP over 4 home starts this season. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)