Brandon Lee – Sports Handicapper

40* NCAAB VEGAS ODDSMAKERS MISTAKE (Davidson -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Davidson laying a small number at home. Dayton is a good team and have been playing well, but I think that has the Flyers getting a little too much respect on the road against the Wildcats. Davidson is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and are tied for 1st with VCU on top the Atlantic 10.

Wildcats did fail to cover at home last time out against St Joe's, winning by just 8 as a 11.5-point favorite, but have yet to fail to cover back-to-back games in conference play. It's also worth pointing out that Dayton is a team that has been overvalued quite a bit this season. The Flyers are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games. They are also 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the Wildcats -3.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes riding that massive wave of momentum to a hoem win over the Terps. Iowa has won each of their last 2 games on a 3-pointer at the buzzer and have won 4 straight overall. They are 13-2 on their home floor and the last time they hosted a ranked team they cruised to a 74-59 win as  a 5.5-point dog against Michigan. 

Maryland has been better than expected, but are just 3-4 in their last 7 with the only win during this stretch on the road coming against a Nebraska team that is really struggling. The Terps are also a very young team with multiple freshmen playing big roles. I just think the grind of a college season is really starting to take it's toll on these guys and I just don't see them having the energy in their second road game in a 4 day stretch. Give me Iowa -2! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Penn St -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Nittany Lions laying a short number at home against the Cornhuskers. I believe we are getting a great price on Penn State due to the fact that Nebraska comes into this won off back-to-back wins. I'm not buying into the victories for the Cornhuskers, both were at home and they shot 50% from the field and only beat Minnesota by 1. In their 9-point win over Northwestern they only managed 59 points and shot 32.8% from the field. 

That was the 8th time in the last 9 games for the Cornhuskers where they shot 42% or worse. Trying to take that offense on the road and win is a monumental task. Note they shot 49% from the field back in a mere 6-point win over Penn State. That was back prior to losing Isaac Copeland to a season ending injury. I just don't see Nebraska scoring enough to keep this close. Give me the Nittany Lions -3! 

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Iowa State -9)

I'll take my chances with the Cyclones winning by double-digits at home against the Bears. If you just look at the line without doing any research, you might be tempted to take the big number with Baylor. However, the Bears are likely to be short-handed. We know for sure that Tristan Clark won't play and there's a good chance both Makai Mason and King McClure won't be in action. 

Those are Baylor's top 3 scorers, who combine average 40.1 points. That's 55.8% of the 71.8 ppg that the Bears average. In their last game without those 3, they managed just 61 points on 35% shooting in a 25-point loss at Texas Tech. Baylor is just 1-3 in their last 4. 

Iowa State lost on the road to Bears back in early January, so that should eliminate any looking past Baylor in this one. The Cyclones also are just 1-game back in the loss column for the top spot in the Big 12, so there's more than enough motivation in play. I just think as long as they show up with the right mentality, this thing is going to turn into a blowout. Give me the Cyclones -9! 

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