Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Nationals dropped the opener of their three-game series against the White Sox but bounced back by taking the final two games. Washington hasn't had a day off since September 7th and will be right back at it on Thursday as it opens a four-game set against the Braves. Atlanta checks in off another losing series, this one at the hands of the Phillies. Yesterday's defeat came in heart-breaking fashion as the Braves rallied from three runs down to tie the game but ultimately fell in extra innings. I'm confident we'll see left-hander Max Fried guide them out of their slump on Thursday. Fried had his start pushed back due to a blister. A couple of extra days off probably isn't the worst thing at this time of year. While Fried owns an ERA well north of four in 15 career starts against the Nationals, that doesn't tell the whole story. Current Washington hitters have gone a combined 11-for-64 (.172) off of Fried with a grand total of just two extra-base hits. Washington will hand the ball to Jake Irvin. Like a lot of rookie starters, he has labored down the stretch, allowing a whopping 13 walks and nine earned runs over his last four outings. He's never faced any of the current Braves hitters before but I'm willing to bet on Atlanta's loaded lineup inflicting plenty of damage. Atlanta checks in averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs on the road this season. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it does enter this series sporting a collective 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 10 blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Giants were in a smash spot on the road against the tanking Cardinals last Sunday in Arizona but got off to a miserable start and needed a furious second half rally to secure a 31-28 victory. Now they stay on the road on a short week to face one of the league's best teams in the 49ers. I don't expect this one to end well for the G-Men. New York is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line, not to mention the fact that RB Saquon Barkley is nursing an ankle injury and questionable to suit up on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Niners turned in a sloppy (at times) performance against the Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday but should get a chance to control proceedings from the opening kickoff in their home opener. There are few matchups where New York has any sort of advantage in this game, keeping in mind these two teams last squared off in 2020 with San Francisco winning by a 36-9 score in New Jersey. Here, we'll note that San Francisco is 12-3 ATS against NFC opponents going back to last season and a red hot 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.5 points in the latter situation. Take San Francisco.

TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We saw a predictably high-scoring affair on Thursday Night Football last week as the Vikings and Eagles lit up the scoreboard in Philadelphia. I expect a much different story to play out this week as the Giants and 49ers do battle on a short week in Santa Clara. New York got off to a sluggish start in Arizona last Sunday but ultimately got it together in the second half in a massive come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals. The Giants will face a much more difficult test here, however, as the 49ers enter sporting a perfect 2-0 record off back-to-back road wins to open the campaign. I don't anticipate Giants QB Daniel Jones having much time to operate behind a banged-up offensive line. The 49ers boast one of the league's fiercest pass rushes and I'm certain we'll see Brian Daboll's employ a gameplan centered around Jones getting the football out quick, not to mention a healthy dose of the Giants ground game. The effectiveness of that New York backfield is in question with RB Saquon Barkley questionable to play after getting hurt on Sunday. For the 49ers, I look for them to go a little more conservative here as they play on a short week following consecutive road games. This is a game where they should be able to control proceedings from the jump and there should come a point where they can essentially take the air out of the football. While QB Brock Purdy has been efficient through the first two games (and throughout the early stages of his career) he does have a tendency to distribute the football close to the line of scrimmage rather than looking for big plays down field. I expect to see a number of long, clock-eating drives from the 49ers in particular in this one, which of course serves us well with the 'under'. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 131-90 with the Giants coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 total points. Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This total has been climbing since opening, and for good reason. Coastal Carolina cruised to a 41-24 victory in this matchup last year but I'm anticipating a more competitive affair this time around and that should lend itself to a high-scoring contest. Georgia State actually brought in former Coastal Carolina defensive coordinator Chad Staggs to turn things around on that side of the football. The jury is still out as to whether that will be the case, however. The Panthers have performed well against a pair of bad offenses in Connecticut and Charlotte over the last two games but keep in mind, they gave up 35 points including four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch against FCS squad Rhode Island in their season-opener. This is a Georgia State defense that has lost a ton of key parts from last year's squad - keeping in mind, last year's defense wasn't very good to begin with. It's a similar story with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers lost two of their best defenders from a year ago in Jerrod Clark and Josaiah Stewart and again, that was a defense that wasn't very good. Offensively, both teams are loaded and led by experienced quarterbacks in Darren Grainger and Grayson McCall. Not household names by any means but two of the better leaders in the country. While many teams are already dealing with injuries to key players at the skill positions on offense, that's not the case with the Panthers and Chanticleers as they both enter with clean injury reports. In last year's meeting between these teams, Coastal Carolina held onto the football for more than 40 minutes. Yet that contest still produced 65 total points. Take the over (10*).