Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

It's not often we can back the Astros at such a generous price at home but that's the case on Friday as they come off a series sweep at the hands of the Guardians and face a Rangers team that is fresh off a blowout victory in Anaheim. The Rangers do figure to put together some runs against Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. but I'm not convinced they can shut down this red hot Houston offense. The Astros rank top-three in the majors in weighted on base average and fourth in isolated power over the last week. Remember, they're just one series removed from sweeping the reeling Dodgers in Los Angeles last weekend. While McCullers Jr. hasn't been sharp, neither has Rangers starter Jack Leiter. In fact, Texas has lost each of his last six starts and 11 of his 15 outings this season. Behind Leiter is a Rangers bullpen that hasn't had a day off in the last week and logged a 4.21 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over that stretch, converting just one save and blowing three along the way. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has converted 16 saves while blowing only two at home this season. Houston has the advantage of having been idle yesterday and has to be licking its chops ahead of this matchup with the weary Rangers. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

While the Angels will undoubtedly be looking to shake off last night's beatdown at the hands of the Rangers, I think they're going to be in tough against the Diamondbacks on Friday. Arizona is coming off a loss of its own, 4-3 last night in San Diego. It did manage to split that four-game series, however, and I look for it to continue to build on its recent success on Friday. Ryne Nelson takes the ball for the D'Backs. He quietly put together a solid 2024 campaign going 10-6 with a 3.74 FIP and he's picked up right where he left off and perhaps been even better this season, going 5-2 with a 3.38 FIP and 0.98 WHIP. He draws an Angels lineup that ranks 20th in weighted on base average and 18th in isolated power over the last week. Tyler Anderson will counter for Los Angeles. The D'Backs check in ranked top-10 in wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season and ninth in ISO. Anderson is a long-term loser at 12-21 going back to the start of last season and owns a 4.84 FIP and 1.38 WHIP this year. While the two bullpens in this matchup can generally be considered a wash this season, that hasn't been the case lately. Arizona's 'pen checks in sporting a sparkling 0.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last week. They've also converted 17 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Angels have converted just nine saves while also blowing nine at home. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Padres have been alternating wins and losses all week and I look for them to continue that trend on Friday as they come off last night's 4-3 victory over Arizona. Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia. Were it not for him missing an extended stretch due to injury we might be talking about him in the N.L. Cy Young Award conversation. He's been that good, logging a sub-3.00 FIP and a WHIP just north of 1.00. He'll face a Padres offense that has been lukewarm at best lately, ranking 18th in weighted on base average and 23rd in isolated power over the last week. The Phillies will look to build off their last game - a blowout win in San Francisco - against Padres starter Ryan Bergert. He's been solid as a starter for San Diego in his rookie campaign but isn't really a candidate to work deep into the ball game and behind him is an overworked Padres bullpen that has logged 31 2/3 innings over the last week. The Phillies have climbed to seventh in the majors in wOBA over the last week while sitting a middling 15th in ISO. Look for Philadelphia to scratch out enough offense to secure its second straight victory on Friday. Take Philadelphia (8*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

We'll call for plenty of offense in the opener of this interleague series on Friday. Kodai Senga makes his return to the mound after recovering from a hamstring injury and faces a steadily improving Royals offense that ranks second in the majors in weighted on base average and first in isolated power over the last week. Also of note, the New York bullpen has posted an ERA north of five to go along with a 1.50 WHIP over the last week. For their part, the Mets, while struggling to find consistency in the win column, have performed reasonably well at the plate lately, ranking top-10 in wOBA and 13th in ISO over the same stretch. They'll be up against Michael Wacha, who has been effective at times this season but certainly hasn't been at his best lately, allowing nine earned runs in just nine innings of work over his last two outings. Take the over.

West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Friday.

We've seen a scoring explosion in the CFL over the last couple of weeks but I look for a lower-scoring affair as the Stampeders and Roughriders meet for the first time this season on Friday. Calgary scored 37 points in a stunning 'upset' win over the previously undefeated Blue Bombers at home last week. Keep in mind, the Stamps are just one game removed from being held to 12 points against the Redblacks. Also of note, the Stamps have been getting the job done on the ground rather than through the air. They've completed fewer than 20 passes in all four games this season and that should make them a little easier for the Roughriders defense to gameplan for. Saskatchewan checks in off its bye week after a dominant 37-18 home win over B.C. on June 28th. The Riders offense, like the Stamps, has been better than expected this season but I do wonder whether they can keep it up. At a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS this season you have to figure a letdown is coming from Saskatchewan at some point and it will face some resistance from a Calgary defense that has allowed 20 points or less in three straight games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Friday.

The Storm were stunned 93-83 in the front half of this home-and-home set on Wednesday. Seattle led that game comfortably by eight points entering the fourth quarter before an epic collapse. Perhaps the letdown was to be expected as the Storm had an eye on returning home from what would have been a successful 3-1 road trip. Instead they'll head back to the Pacific Northwest off a 2-2 trip that did including an 'upset' win over the Liberty in New York. Connecticut had lost 10 games in a row prior to Wednesday's victory. That included a 16-point loss in Seattle back on June 27th. Of note, the Sun dropped that game by a sizeable margin despite shooting well above average, 48% from the field in that contest. With this being the start of a four-game homestand that will take the Storm through the All-Star break, we'll look for them to deliver a decisive revenge-fuelled victory on Friday. Take Seattle (8*).