Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 9:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Rockets put together a terrific regular season and have earned home-court advantage in this opening round series, but they couldn’t have drawn a more challenging opponent than the battle-tested Warriors. Golden State enters with a clear edge in postseason experience and will be locked in from the opening tip in Game 1, especially after dropping a rare home game to Houston just two weeks ago.

That loss came in a bit of a letdown spot for the Warriors, who were riding high after five straight wins (4-0-1 ATS), including a statement victory over Denver just 48 hours earlier. Houston was seeking revenge in that matchup after falling at home to the Warriors in the prior meeting. Now the roles are reversed, and Golden State gets the motivational edge as the underdog in the series opener.

While Houston has been strong at home overall (29-12 SU), their record against the spread tells a different story—just 20-21 ATS on their home floor. Golden State, meanwhile, has been one of the NBA’s most reliable road bets this season, posting a 24-16-1 ATS mark away from home to go along with a solid 24-17 SU record.

This matchup sets up well for a veteran Warriors squad that thrives in high-stakes environments. Look for Golden State to set the tone and keep this one tight—or even steal Game 1 outright.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Warriors 111, Rockets 108.

My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

This is exactly the kind of game the Yankees envisioned Max Fried stepping up in when they signed him in the offseason. After a crushing bullpen meltdown on Saturday—surrendering a four-run lead in the ninth inning and ultimately losing in extras—New York needs a stopper, and Fried fits the bill. The lefty has been in a groove lately, working into the seventh inning in each of his last two starts while staying under the 100-pitch mark in both outings. On the season, he boasts a strong 2.65 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, and he’s been particularly effective against this Rays lineup, having allowed just two hits (both singles from Yandy Díaz) in 18 career at-bats.

Tampa Bay counters with Ryan Pepiot, who has had a rough go of it early this season. His 5.75 FIP and 1.59 WHIP through four starts tell the story, and he's been hurt by poor command and a tendency to allow too much hard contact—yielding over 10 hits and 2.5 home runs per nine innings. That’s not a recipe for success against a Yankees offense that ranks fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching.

With a major edge on the mound and the motivation to bounce back from Saturday’s collapse, I expect the Yankees to take the series finale on Sunday afternoon.

Take New York. Projected score: Yankees 5, Rays 3.

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Toronto at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I expect a much tighter, more disciplined contest as these provincial rivals open their first-round playoff series. The postseason tends to bring out a more structured, physical style of hockey, and that should be the case here with both teams likely to ramp things up defensively.

Ottawa lit up the scoreboard with a seven-goal performance in its regular season finale against Carolina, but don't expect that kind of offensive output on the road, especially against a motivated Toronto squad. The Senators have averaged just 2.5 goals per game away from home this season and now face a Maple Leafs team that has allowed only 2.5 goals per contest at home—a trend that figures to continue with playoff stakes on the line.

Toronto has scored exactly four goals in three straight games but hasn't done so in four consecutive contests all season. That makes regression likely against a Senators team that, despite their recent ‘over’ run, has actually allowed a modest 3.0 goals per game on the road this season.

With the stakes elevated, defenses focused, and both teams likely to lean on a more playoff-friendly style of hockey, we’ll anticipate a lower-scoring affair in Game 1.

Take the under. Projected score: Maple Leafs 3, Senators 2.

Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Arizona over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

This will mark the seventh meeting already this season between the Diamondbacks and Cubs, with Chicago holding a 4-2 advantage, but I look for Arizona to respond and avoid the series sweep on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley.

The D'Backs hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, who is better than his surface-level numbers might indicate. One disastrous start in the Bronx against the Yankees skews his early season line, but he’s bounced back nicely, allowing just six hits and three earned runs over his last 12 innings of work. Kelly has shown the ability to settle in quickly and should be in a solid spot against a Cubs lineup he’s had success against in the past.

Jameson Taillon will toe the rubber for the Cubs. While he enjoyed a bit of a resurgence last year, he appears to have regressed to the mean early in 2025. He enters this contest with a 5.05 FIP and 1.25 WHIP across four starts, and he faces an Arizona offense that’s capable of applying pressure early and often.

Perhaps the biggest edge in this matchup comes in the bullpens. Arizona enters this game ranked No. 1 in the majors in bullpen xFIP, while the Cubs sit way down at 28th. If this game comes down to late-inning execution, the D'Backs should hold a clear advantage.

With the better starter in current form and a massive edge in the ‘pen, I’ll back Arizona to avoid the sweep on Sunday.

Take Arizona. Projected score: Diamondbacks 6, Cubs 4.