Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

CBB False Favorite Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Indiana State at 7 pm et on Friday.

I like the way this one sets up for Valpo as it comes in battle-tested off three straight games decided by three points or less. The fact it went 1-2 in those three contests should help keep its motivation level high for this one as it hosts Indiana State. Valpo is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series but dropped a double-digit decision against the Sycamores the last time they matched up last February. Here we find the Crusaders 11-3 when having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of nearly two points in that situation. They're also an incredible 70-36 ATS when coming off a road loss, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.8 points. Indiana State has certainly been rolling along but might have a tough time keeping the positive momentum building here having not played in the last nine days. Take Valparaiso (10*).

NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Friday.

This is a spot we've gone back to time and time again as the Clippers look to rebound off an ugly loss against these same Grizzlies last night. Note that Los Angeles is 27-10 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of around nine points. Better still, the Clips are 19-9 ATS off an outright upset loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a wide 14.1-point margin on average. Los Angeles needs to right the ship in this game as the road trip will only get tougher with stops in Milwaukee and Boston up next. Memphis was highly-motivated to show up and show out in last night's game off consecutive losses but may not be able to reach that same level of intensity here. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

We missed the mark with the Avalanche two nights ago as they got blown out by the Wild, on home ice no less. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them here, however, as they face a familiar foe in the Coyotes. Note that Colorado has gone 7-3 against Arizona over the last three seasons and breezed past the 'Yotes in last year's playoffs, capped off by consecutive 7-1 victories to close out the series. Colorado is 12-5 when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, averaging just shy of four goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are a miserable 3-15 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Take Colorado (10*).