Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We've seen the line move past a field goal in this one given all of the turmoil surrounding the Raiders and head coach Jon Gruden's abrupt departure last Monday night. I actually feel that Las Vegas is in better shape this week than it was last, when Gruden was still on the sidelines and all of that distraction swirling around. They at least have some closure when it comes to the situation now and going out and playing football, against a division-rival no less, should be a welcome reprieve. The Broncos took full advantage of a soft early season schedule to race out to a 3-0 start but it's been all downhill from there as they've dropped consecutive games by a combined 50-26 margin. I don't want any part of laying points with a banged-up Denver squad here, noting that it dropped both of last year's matchups with the Raiders, allowing a whopping 69 points in the process, and hasn't defeated Oakland/Las Vegas by more than a field goal since back in October of 2017. Take Las Vegas.

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My selection is on New England plus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This Patriots are in a terrific spot on Sunday as they return home to host the Cowboys who are coming off four straight wins, including a perfect 3-0 homestand. The last time we saw Dallas play on the road, it eked out a 20-17 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Cowboys have only managed to split two road games this season, with both of those games decided by a field goal or less. Another close game should be in order on Sunday. New England was in a clear letdown spot last week on the road against the lowly Texans. Credit the Pats and rookie QB Mac Jones for pulling out a victory even if they didn't manage to cover the lofty pointspread. Here, we find Dallas a long-term loser at 39-59 ATS when playing on the road off a home victory, outscored by 1.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pats are an impressive 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games as a home underdog, including a 1-0 ATS mark this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take New England (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland moneyline over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I think this play is more straight-forward than most are making it out to be. Yes, the Cardinals are the league's lone undefeated team but their wins have come against disappointing Tennessee and Minnesota squads, the lowly Jaguars, the Rams in a clear letdown spot off a win over the then-undefeated defending Super Bowl champion Bucs and the Niners who were giving rookie QB Trey Lance his first career start. Now the Cards roll into the Dawg Pound to face a Browns squad that's coming off a near-miss against the Chargers in Los Angeles last week. Cleveland is missing some key cogs, including RB Nick Chubb, but this one's more about the Browns defense. I look for them to harass Cards QB Kyler Murray all afternoon long and ultimately force a key second half turnover that turns the tide in this contest. Take Cleveland moneyline (6*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens keep finding ways to win and I don't expect the Chargers to be the ones to end their winning streak on Sunday afternoon. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its last game over the last three seasons. The Browns were set up on a tee for the Chargers last Sunday in Los Angeles yet they needed a fourth quarter rally to earn the win (and cover). We actually won with the Bolts in that contest. Meanwhile, the Ravens had no business winning against the Colts last Monday night but pulling out unlikely wins has been their M.O. this season and here they comfortably find themselves in the second game of a four-game homestand. QB Lamar Jackson is balling out right now and while the Chargers defense offers a considerable challenge, I think he'll be up for it after completing 37-of-43 passes for 437 yards on Monday night. While the talent is there, save for the Raiders and Washington Football Team, the Chargers haven't really been able to stop anyone this season. Take Baltimore (10*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

There's no reason for the Colts to be down on themselves following an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If anything, they should bring positive momentum from that game and now find themselves in a smash spot against the Texans, who may not win another game this season (that's not a stretch). Houston fell just short at home against the Patriots last week - who were in a clear flat spot off their matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Now the Texans go into Indianapolis without two key cogs on their offensive line in Justin Britt and Laremy Tunsil. The Colts offense has been quietly effective over the last two weeks, running fot 139 and 123 yards while QB Carson Wentz has come to life, completing 49-of-67 passes for 600 yards over that stretch. With one of the more underrated backfields in the entire NFL, the Colts have the ability to salt this game away should they build a considerable second half lead, as we expect. Take Indianapolis (10*).