Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll fade the Lakers off their big home win over the Suns two nights ago. That marked Los Angeles' second straight victory but it remains just 1-2-1 ATS over its last four contests. The Lakers have had a tough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up 84, 78 and 70 field goal attempts over their last three games and now go up against a Thunder defense that can certainly hang and figures to be in a foul mood after allowing the Clippers to connect on 42-of-90 field goal attempts, without Paul George no less, in a lopsided affair last night. Of course, perhaps a letdown was to be expected from the Thunder after they notched a 101-100 victory over the same Clips two nights earlier. This will be Oklahoma City's third straight game in Los Angeles and it has looked reasonably comfortable - even in last night's loss it still made good on 41-of-93 FG attempts, the fifth time in the last six games it managed to get off at least 93 FG attempts. It remains to be seen whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to play on Friday as he recovers from an abdominal injury. We'll treat it as a bonus if he can go but will make this play assuming he'll be sidelined. The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss. They haven't dropped consecutive games since enduring a five-game skid from February 23rd to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a woeful 4-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home win over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.0 points on average in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday.

The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*).

Friday NBA Free play. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

We missed with the Suns two nights ago as they dropped a double-digit decision against the Lakers in Los Angeles. Phoenix is certainly down-trodden right now having lost five of its last six games SU and all six of those contests ATS. While you might assume it would be the Suns offense struggling with Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton sidelined, its defense has actually been the biggest culprit. Phoenix enters this game having knocked down 40 or more field goals in an incredible 15 straight and 18 of its last 19 games. I do like the fact that the Suns were at least able to limit the Lakers pace on Wednesday, holding them to just 70 field goal attempts. You would have to go back 12 games to find the last time Phoenix allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 88 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Kings are in a bit of a funk offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in three of their last five games - not exactly what you want to see from a team laying a considerable number of points against what should be a desperate opponent. Sacramento has also suffered some considerable regression defensively, yielding 41, 46 and 49 made field goals over its last three contests. The Kings did take the most recent meeting between these two teams on March 11th but they haven't won consecutive matchups in this series since January and February 2020. Take Phoenix.

Sean is RED HOT off a 3-0 SWEEP last night! He extends his INCREDIBLE 43-17 CBB totals run and 11-3 NCAA Tournament record with his 10* Sweet 16 Total of the Year on Friday night plus more action from the NBA where he shoots for his FOURTH STRAIGHT o/u winner; hop on board!

My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The last time these two teams met in January in San Antonio we saw a closing total of 240 points. That game failed to reach that number but did surpass the total we're working with in Friday's rematch. Of course, injuries are playing a big role in the adjustment of this total. San Antonio has been flooring a makeshift roster on any given night due to injury (tanking) management. Meanwhile, the Wizards are without two of their best offensive threats in Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal. With that being said, I think we see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Wiz offense here. They've actually knocked down 41, 42 and 44 field goals over their last three games with the latter performance coming without Kuzma and Beal. They only managed to reach 104 points in a loss to the Nuggets last time out as Denver led most of the way and was able to limit the pace (Washington got off only 84 field goal attempts). While we haven't seen it lately, I do think Washington would prefer to go up-tempo and will undoubtedly be afforded that opportunity against a hapless Spurs defense that has yielded 95 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in five of its last seven games. On the flip side, San Antonio is coming off consecutive dismal offensive showings, scoring just 84 and 94 points in blowout losses in New Orleans and Milwaukee. Note that the Spurs are expected to have a number of key offensive contributors back in the lineup on Friday, including Keldon Johnson. San Antonio has hoisted up 93 or more FG attempts in three of its last four contests while the Wizards have allowed 48, 48, 43 and 42 made field goals over their last four games. Finally, I'll point out that while the Spurs enter on a three-game 'under' streak, they've yet to see four straight contests stay 'under' the total this season with the 'over' going 3-0 on the previous three occasions where they followed three 'unders' in a row. Take the over (8*).

Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*).