Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday.

I'm high on both of these teams entering this nationally-televised matchup on Thursday night. While we're dealing with a fairly high total at first glance, I believe it will prove too low. The T'Wolves have now given up over 100 points in each of their last 18 road games. They're giving up just shy of 115 points per game away from home this season. Golden State is coming off its second highest-scoring performance of the season, putting up 130 points in a rout of the Mavs two nights ago. Klay Thompson appears to be getting more comfortable with each passing game (he had actually sat the previous two games before Tuesday's blowout win). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 64-29 the last 93 times the Warriors played at home seeking revenge for a 20+ point loss, as is the case here after they suffered a 119-99 setback in Minnesota less than two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Warriors elected to rest a number of their starters in that game at the tail-end of a four-game road trip. The T'Wolves are playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now, having scored 108 points or more in nine straight games. They're just one game removed from a 136-point outburst against Brooklyn. There's little reason for them to shy away from the challenge at hand here as the T'Wolves have scored 108, 111, 126, 110 and 119 points in five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2021. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 in Minnesota's last 33 games when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 235.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*).

Thursday CBB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Weber State and Northern Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday.

This game has track meet written all over it as these two high-powered offenses come in scorching hot. I see this as a 'first to 90 points wins' type of game and have no problem playing the 'over' despite the relatively high posted total. Weber State has put up 80+ points in four of its last six games, with the 'over' cashing in all six of those contests. In fact, it enters this game off consecutive 90+ point efforts - both victories. As for Northern Colorado, it righted the ship with consecutive road wins after dropping an embarrassing home loss against Sacramento State, scoring exactly 87 points in each of its last two games. Scoring opportunities abound for the Bears here at home, where they hoist up 27 three-point attempts and get to the free throw line an average of 19 times per game. They've had no ability (or interest) in slowing opponents' pace here at home, allowing them to get off 62 field goal attempts per game on average. Take the over.

CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and UCLA at 9 pm et on Thursday.

Cal is coming off a dreadful performance against Arizona in which it was ripped for 96 points. That could be considered an outlier, however, as the Bears had only allowed more than 65 points once in five previous Pac-12 contests this season. UCLA came up with a stunning 16-point upset win over Arizona two nights ago which obviously sets it up in a bit of a letdown spot here. The Bruins are locked in defensively right now, allowing 65, 58, 65 and 59 points over their last four contests. Since the start of 2020, they've held Cal to 40, 56, 57 and 52 points with the latter coming in a 60-52 victory earlier this month. With both teams adept at taking care of the basketball, I look for much of this one to be played in the half-court, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two squads this season. Take the under (10*).

CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 5 pm et on Thursday.

I don't believe for a second that Nebraska's defense can contain Wisconsin's offense in this game. The Badgers, more often known for their patient, methodical offense have shifted into another gear this season. They check in averaging well north of 70 points per game and come into this game in a foul mood after dropping an 86-74 decision against Michigan State last time out. This is an ideal bounce-back spot as the Cornhuskers don't play a lick of defense, allowing 87, 79, 93, 81, 92 and 78 points over their last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip along the way. Desperate for a victory off six consecutive losses, I'm confident we'll see Nebraska throw everything it has at the Badgers defense in this one. We've certainly seen cracks in that Badger defense as they've given up a very un-Wisconsin-like 43.9% shooting on the season. The Huskers should find their opportunities, noting that they rank 21st in the nation in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Last year's two meetings between these two teams were low-scoring. Different story here. Take the over (10*).

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

This may look like a high posted total at first glance, but the Lightning are on an 'over' tear right now while the Devils aren't stopping anyone - quite simply a mess at the back-end. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Devils coming off consecutive games scoring two goals or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 7.3 goals. The 'over' is 6-1 in the Bolts last seven games with the winning side scoring at least five goals in five of those seven contests. Tampa Bay should have little trouble taking advantage of a Devils squad that has allowed 4.0 goals per game on the road this season and has been lit up for 16 goals over its last four games alone. The first matchup between these two teams this season totalled eight goals in a 5-3 Devils victory here in Tampa. Expect another high-scoring affair on Thursday. Take the over.

My selection is on Carolina over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

We're being asked to lay a steep price with the Hurricanes in this one but I believe the price should be considerably higher. The Senators are fresh off a 5-0 shutout win over the Sabres two nights ago. That victory had more to do with Buffalo's short-comings than anything else. Here, we'll note that the Sens are 0-9 in their last nine home games following a win by two goals or more against a division opponent, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals. The Hurricanes posted a 4-3 overtime win over the Golden Knights two nights ago. They've won four of their last five games, scoring at least four goals in all five contests. Note that the Canes are an incredible 14-2 in their last 16 games following a one-goal victory on home ice. Keep in mind, while the Sens are just 6-10 on home ice, the Canes are 14-6 on the road, allowing just 2.4 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average. Somewhat surprisingly, this is a revenge spot for the Canes after they dominated the first meeting between these two teams this season (they outshot the Sens 49-20) but ended up dropping a 3-2 decision. Take Carolina (5*).