Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Hawks managed to wrap up a two-game sweep of the Wizards at home last night although it took a big fourth quarter rally to do so. Atlanta certainly didn't bring its 'A' game, perhaps a product of already having taken care of Washington on two previous occasions this season. The Hawks enter this game having shot better than 50% from the field in five of their last six games and they should absolutely go off against a Magic squad that is simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando has been bullied lately, allowing three of its last four opponents to shoot 48.5% or better while giving up 51 or more rebounds in three straight contests entering tonight's game. Last time out the Magic actually held the Bucks to 42.6% shooting but still lost by 12 points (they did manage to cover the spread). The Magic simply can't match the Hawks depth, as we saw in the most recent meeting, when Atlanta cruised to a 16-point win on April 20th. Take Atlanta (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat have inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in each of their last 10 games but I believe that streak will be put in jeopardy as they host the defensive-minded 76ers on Thursday night. The first two meetings in this series this season were both high-scoring games but those came back in the second week of January. The 76ers are in excellent defensive form right now, having allowed just 104.6 points per game on 44% shooting over their last five contests. Note that they've posted a 13-22 o/u record away from home this season. The Heat enter this game having shot better than 50% in each of their last three games and a blazing 57.3% and 59.3% in sweeping consecutive games in Boston in their last two contests. That's certainly not a sustainable trend, noting that the Heat average 107.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting this season. In the long-term picture, the 'under' has gone 97-59 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

We missed with the 'under' in this matchup last night as the Avs poured it on early and cruised to a 6-0 victory, eclipsing the total by a half-goal. I'll go back to the well here, however, as I do expect the Kings to show some pride off an embarrassing loss and playing their regular season finale. Note that the Kings have allowed just 2.1 goals per game after losing their last game by three goals or more this season. Of course, the Avs are locked in defensively right now, having allowed two goals or less in four consecutive games, with three of those coming against the Kings. There's still reason for them to go all out here as they look to secure top spot in the West Division and draw an easier first round matchup against St. Louis (instead of Minnesota). With that being said, they will continue to be cautious with Nathan MacKinnon as he is expected to miss this game due to an undisclosed injury. Note that the 'under' is 20-8 with the Kings playing on the road revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. Despite last night's 'over' result, the 'under' remains 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series here in Colorado and nine of the last 13 matchups overall. Take the under (10*).

N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday.

This has been a low-scoring series in recent years with four of the last six meetings staying 'under' the total and I look for that trend to continue in Thursday's series-opener in Pittsburgh. Neither team is tearing the cover off the ball in the early going this season. The Giants check in having scored a grand total of seven runs over their last three games and now head to Pittsburgh following an off-day on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Pirates have been held to two runs or less in eight of their last 10 games. Anthony DeSclafani will take the ball for the Giants. He's been a pleasant surprise so far this season, leaning on a terrific ground ball rate (56.0%) and excellent control (6.1% walk rate) to post a 2.40 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He already has a complete game shutout to his credit this season as well. DeSclafani has struggled against the Pirates in the past (during his days with the division-rival Reds) but that was largely due to his inability to keep the ball in the park - something he seems to have figured out this season, having posted a 2.5% home run percentage through 41 1/3 innings. Wil Crowe will get the start for the Pirates. He has seemingly gotten stronger with each start, most recently allowing just two earned runs on four hits over six innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 8th. Crowe has done a nice job of keeping hitters off balance, recording a 34.1% hard-hit ball percentage while also posting a very respectable 43.2% ground ball percentage. Both teams possess good but not great bullpens, but I think that's only of minimal concern given the below-average offenses. Take the under (10*).

A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays as they try to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Yankees on Thursday night. Tampa Bay has run into a couple of hot pitchers over the last two nights, unable to get anything going against Jordan Montgomery and Gerrit Cole. Here, it will benefit from facing what I would consider the weak link in the Yankees rotation in Jameson Taillon. The Yanks are just 2-4 with Taillon on the hill this season and he's posted an ugly 10.56 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two road starts - both losses. We did see Taillon work into the seventh inning in his most recent start, but that was at home against the light-hitting Nationals and New York still lost the game 11-4 (we won with the underdog Nats in that game). Crafty veteran Rich Hill will take the ball for the Rays tonight. After a rough start to the season he has righted the ship over his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs on five hits over 15 innings of work. Hill has already guided the Rays to a victory against the Yankees this season, 10-5 back on April 9th. Hill's 4.66 home ERA is slightly misleading as he's recorded a stellar 0.98 WHIP here at Tropicana Field. Despite losing the first two games in this series, Tampa Bay is still 12-9 at home against New York over the last three seasons, and 5-3 overall against the Yankees here in 2021. I'll grab the insurance run with the Rays here as the very reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (10*).

Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Thursday.

This game has slugfest written all over it as the Reds and Rockies open a four-game set in Colorado on Thursday night. Luis Castillo takes the ball for the Reds. He has made it through six innings just once this season which leaves Cincinnati in a tough spot with one of baseball's worst bullpens. Castillo has never had success against the Rockies, allowing 10 earned runs on 17 hits in 10 2/3 innings in two career starts against them. He limps into this start after getting chased after just four innings against the Indians last time out. Chi Chi Gonzalez will counter for Colorado. Like Castillo, he hasn't been able to work deep into ball games this season, failing to make it through six frames even once in five starts. He did get off to a fine start to the campaign but has now allowed 14 earned runs on 20 hits over his last three outings, spanning just 13 2/3 innings of work. Like Cincinnati, Colorado also has a terrible bullpen, entering yesterday's action with a collective ERA well north of five. Take the over (8*).

Off a couple of tough nights, Sean is eager to get back at the books and has SEVEN 10* NBA, MLB and NHL winners, keyed by THREE big tickets, ready to go on Thursday! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

We won by fading the Canucks last time out as they suffered a 5-0 wipeout at the hands of the Jets in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. Here, I'll switch gears and back Vancouver with an insurance goal as it continues its somewhat tedious stretch to the finish line on Thursday night in Calgary. Since dropping the first three meetings in lopsided fashion this season, the Canucks have answered back going 2-1 in their last three matchups with the Flames, with the lone defeat coming by a single goal. Here, we find the Canucks having gone 18-12 following a shutout loss under the guidance of head coach Travis Green, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Calgary, meanwhile, checks in just 7-16 when coming off a win by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. The Flames are also a miserable 3-10 after scoring four goals or more in their previous game this season, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Neither team has much to play for at this point and I believe we're getting a reasonable price to back the Canucks with an extra goal in our back pocket. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*).

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Canucks 5-0 loss in Winnipeg two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as Vancouver continues to play out the string against another non-playoff opponent in Calgary. Note that the Canucks have posted a 12-3 o/u record after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seaosns, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 14-3 with the Flames playing at home revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons. That situation has led to an average total of 7.8 goals. Vancouver checks in giving up 3.6 goals per game on the road this season while Calgary has quietly averaged 3.1 goals per game on home ice and should be confident after scoring six goals in Sunday's victory over Ottawa. Take the over (8*).

Off a couple of tough nights, Sean is eager to get back at the books and has SEVEN 10* NBA, MLB and NHL winners, keyed by THREE big tickets, ready to go on Thursday! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!