Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This one doesn't scream pitcher's duel with Matt Harvey taking on Jameson Taillon but I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in the Bronx nonetheless.

Harvey has quietly turned things around, tossing 18 1/3 shutout innings over his last three starts. He hasn't issued a walk in his last two outings and hasn't given up a home runs since back on June 25th against Toronto - six starts ago. He's always had the Yankees number, most recently allowing just three earned runs on six hits over 12 innings against them since 2019, including one start this season resulting in a 4-2 Orioles victory.

Jameson Taillon has posted a 3.26 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 11 home starts this season and enters this start in fine form having given up just one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 18 innings (you would have to go back four starts to find the last time he gave up a home run).

We saw a slugfest in this same matchup last night with the Yankees bats finally waking up to score 13 runs. Keep in mind, they had scored four runs or less in 11 straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been a weaker offensive team both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season.

While both bullpens have been somewhat unreliable there's reason for optimism here noting that the O's relief corps has converted 13 saves while blowing only six on the road and the Yankees 'pen has posted 12 saves compared to only three blown against A.L. East opponents. Take the under (6*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants fell to the lowly D'Backs last night but I believe Kevin Gausman is the right guy to have on the hill to get back in the win column on Wednesday.

Gausman has actually struggled over his last few outings. Arizona would appear to be the perfect opponent to get back on track against, however, noting that the D'Backs haven't been able to figure the right-hander out since getting to him in his first career start against them back in 2018. In five starts against the Snakes since, Gausman has allowed a grand total of six earned runs on 19 hits over 32 innings of work. The Giants have won each of his last four starts against Arizona by a combined 28-9 margin.

Note that Gausman's recent struggles have come at home. On the road he checks in with a sparkling 1.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with the Giants having won eight of his 12 starts. Behind Gausman is a San Francisco bullpen that has posted a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road this season. The Giants 'pen has converted 15 saves while blowing only seven against division opponents.

Zac Gallen will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's coming off a fine outing against the Dodgers but now pitches on just four days' rest. The last time did that was on July 2nd, when he faced these same Giants and lasted only two innings in an 11-4 home loss. Arizona has won just once in Gallen's six home starts this season. The Giants will be seeing Gallen for the sixth time since the start of last season and have certainly had his number, scoring 11 earned runs in just 9 2/3 innings in their last three looks at him.

Even if the Giants somehow don't get to Gallen they should be able to tee off on a bad D'Backs bullpen that owns a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only nine saves converted and 10 blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (7*).

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles over Houston at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We're being asked to lay a lot of chalk with the Dodgers in Max Scherzer's team debut on Wednesday night but I believe the price is warranted.

Scherzer will of course be happy to pitch for a team that should give him more consistent run support. Despite Mad Max posting a stellar 2.76 and 0.89 WHIP in 19 starts this season, the Nationals only managed to win 11 of those games. While the Dodgers were shut out in last night's loss that's certainly not the norm as they had plated 21 runs over their two previous games and average five runs per game at home this season.

The Los Angeles bullpen has posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 18 saves converted and nine blown at home this season - again a more positive situation than what Scherzer was used to in Washington.

Jake Odorizzi will counter for Houston. He's labored through his last few starts, allowing 10 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 13 1/3 innings. Interestingly, he's topped out at four strikeouts or less in five of his last six starts.

The Astros bullpen checks in sporting a 4.21 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with only 13 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season. Take Los Angeles.

Sean settled for a 1-1 MLB split last night but bounces back in a BIG way with THREE afternoon winners on Wednesday! Plus he tests his INCREDIBLE 35-14 (+$1.8K) soccer run with TWO Champions League qualifying best bets! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series with last night's setback coming in truly disappointing fashion as they actually outhit the Mariners but committed a couple of critical errors in the field to drop a 4-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back and salvage the series-finale on getaway day.

Seattle will hand the ball to rookie Logan Gilbert. The Mariners have incredibly won each of Gilbert's last 11 outings but he has shown signs of tiring lately, allowing 15 hits and nine earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work over his last three outings. After facing lefty Yusei Kikuchi last night, the Rays will welcome the opportunity to take on the right-handed Gilbert on Wednesday, noting that they average 5.5 runs per game (0.5 runs per game above their season average) against righties this season.

I've talked thorughout this series about the advantage the Rays should have in the later innings with the Mariners bullpen entering last night's action sporting a 4.90 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 14 saves converted but 12 blown on the road this season. By contrast, Tampa's 'pen has recorded a collective 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown at home this season.

Josh Fleming gets the nod for the Rays in a starting role. He's been terrific at home this season, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts. Perhaps we'll finally see Tampa's offense wake up here, noting that it has produced a whopping 17 runs in Fleming's last two outings. Take Tampa Bay (6*).

My selection is on Cincinnati over Minnesota at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Twins rallied for a 7-5 victory in last night's series-opener but I like the Reds to bounce back in Wednesday's rematch.

Charlie Barnes will take the ball for Minnesota. He'll be making just his second big league start after pitching well in a road outing against the Tigers in July. While he allowed just one earned run in that contest he lasted only 4 2/3 innings and struck out just one.

The less said about both bullpens the better. I will point out, however, that the Twins bullpen is more likely to get stretched here with Barnes not a likely candidate to work deep into the game.

Luis Castillo has quietly turned things around for the Reds and is once again the anchor of their starting rotation. He has posted a 1.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over his last three starts. While he did labor a bit through his most recent outing against the Cubs, that start came on four days' rest. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here noting that he has allowed only one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts on full rest. Take Cincinnati (5*).

My selection is on Dinamo Zagreb over Legia Warsaw at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

I like Dinamo Zagreb to gain the upper hand in the first leg of this Champions League qualifier as it boasts incredible firepower up front (the fact that Swiss striker Mario Gavranovic is likely an option off the bench speaks to their depth).

For Legia Warsaw it will simply be looking to keep within arm's length in this one and perhaps to seal an away goal before hosting the second leg in this matchup next week. Note that it lost one of its top scoring threats in Bartosz Kaputska to a knee injury in the last round of qualifying.

Warsaw has a varied mix of youth and experience, I'm just not sure it's the right combination to keep pace with a side like Dinamo Zagreb in this high stakes match. The Croatian champions are favored for a reason in this one. Take Dinamo Zagreb (9*).

My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Benfica and Spartak Moscow at 1 pm et on Wednesday.

This match has all the makings of a low-scoring encounter as these two squads do battle in the first leg of their Champions League qualifier.

Spartak Moscow already has two league matches under its belt in Russia, managing just a single goal - that coming from the penalty spot. There's little reason to expect a sudden offensive outburst from Rui Vitoria's squad here as it hosts favored Benfica.

The Portuguese side is still getting its legs under it following four preseason league matches. Benfica won't have all hands on deck for this one with newly-acquired Ukrainian standout Roman Yaremchuk not yet acclimated.

Here, we can expect Benfica to be content should it find an away goal ahead of hosting the second leg of this matchup next week. I simply feel that two goals from either squad will be a bridge too far on Wednesday. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*).