Sean Murphy Sports Picks & Daily Packages

My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Sacramento at 9:10 pm et on Sunday.

The knee-jerk reaction from a lot of bettors might be to take the contrarian route and back the winless Kings plus the points as they host the undefeated Grizzlies. We'll go the other way and ride the Memphis wave for a game as it looks to move to 3-0 on the season. The Grizzlies are locked-in defensively right now having held the Jazz and Warriors to just 35 and 34 made field goals on 75 and 83 attempts, respectively, through two games. While the Kings did play better offensively last time out than they did in their season-opener, they still connected on just 42-of-91 field goal attempts in an eight-point home loss to the Trail Blazers. My bigger problem with Sacramento is its defense, or lack thereof. The Kings have been matador-like at that end of the floor, allowing 43 and 46 made field goals and face a Grizzlies team that has connected on 40+ field goals in each of its first two contests. Take Memphis (8*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Sunday.

The 76ers are off to a 3-0 start and that's despite a lagging offense that has made good on 37, 42 and 40 field goals despite pushing the pace to the tune of 89, 92 and 98 attempts. Tonight's opponent, Detroit, can play some defense as it has limited its first two opponents to 40 and 39 made field goals and that's despite allowing Miami to hoist up a whopping 102 field goal attempts last time out. The Pistons took a little time to get going offensively, not really waking up until the fourth quarter of their season-opener against Boston but we saw some carry-over from that comeback on Friday as they knocked down 47-of-89 field goal attempts in their rout of the Heat. Philadelphia has held up well defensively but is giving up too many opportunities for my liking, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in two of its first three games. Take Detroit (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams have really pushed the pace through their first two games but have proven incredibly stingy defensively. I think we're in for a relatively low-scoring affair (by today's NBA standards) when they match up in Minnesota on Sunday. The Raptors have held their first two opponents to an incredibly low 27 and 30 made field goals. While they'll take a step up in class here, it's worth noting that the Timberwolves, despite hoisting up 98 field goal attempts in each of their first two games, haven't exactly gone off offensively, connecting on 46 and 42 of those attempts, respectively. It's a similar story for Toronto. It has gotten off 98 and 101 field goal attempts in its first two contests but made good on just 44 in each game. Minnesota checks in having limited its first two opponents to 81 and 84 field goal attempts including 39 and 37 makes. In a hard-fought game between two teams that want to stay undefeated, I think this one goes lower than most expect. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Utah at 5:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Lakers have come roaring out of the gate this season, going 2-0 thanks to consecutive strong offensive showings against the Warriors and Clippers. They connected on 46 field goals in both victories and now face a Jazz team that has played matador-like defense in the early going, yielding 44 made field goals in each of its first two contests. On the flip side, Utah has been stuck in the mud offensively, hoisting up 75 and 84 field goal attempts in splitting its first two games, making good on just 35 and 41, respectively. The Lakers have held up well defensively so far, allowing 38 and 41 made field goals and I think they can stretch their season-opening winning streak to three games with a comfortable victory here. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers couldn't have looked much better in posting back-to-back decisive home wins over the Bears and Cowboys - part of a current three-game winning streak. Bettors figure to be quick to back them in an underdog role this week and the books look like they'll take all the Green Bay money they can get with the line sitting at 3.5 (at the time of writing). The Packers are expected to have RB Josh Jacobs back but how effective he'll be or how much he'll play remains to be seen. If anything his presence may only take the ball out of the hands of the red hot Jordan Love, which isn't ideal. I like the Lions in this spot as they return home following their bye week which came on the heels of a 'get right' blowout win in Arizona (we won with Detroit in that game). Green Bay is still without its two best defenders in Edgerrin Cooper and Micah Parsons, among others. The Lions are actually as healthy as they've been all season. While the Packers have rolled into Detroit and stunned the Lions in the past, I don't think we'll see that on Sunday. Take Detroit (10*).

My selection is on Houston minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Regression came for the Giants last week as they dropped a 34-27 decision at home against the Saints. They're still 3-2-1 on the season but I think more regression is in order for John Harbaugh's squad. The Texans won't be all that popular of a bet this week as they're laying double-digits and returning home following an 'upset' win over the division rival Jaguars last week in London. The fact is, Houston has played its best football of the season over the last two weeks and I look for it to roll the short-handed Giants here. New York ultimately 'emptied the tank' in a fruitless comeback attempt last Sunday and I think it will have a tough time picking itself up off the mat against a Texans team that hasn't given up on the season despite a slow start. Take Houston (8*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers have rattled off consecutive wins both SU and ATS. I think they're ripe for the 'upset' on Sunday, however, as they host the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay couldn't make a 16-3 lead stand up in an overtime loss at home against the Steelers last week. That loss could ultimately be pinned on undrafted QB Jalon Daniels. Tampa Bay will have Baker Mayfield back under center this week. At 1-5 I don't think it would rush him back onto the field if he wasn't ready. The Bucs aren't a typical 1-5 team. They've faced a much tougher schedule than Carolina. They have a terrific offensive line, running game and defense. I look for them to win an ugly one on Sunday. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).

My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Pittsburgh at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

We missed the mark fading the Steelers last week as the Buccaneers wasted a 16-3 fourth quarter lead in an eventual overtime loss at home. I won't hesitate to go against the surging Steelers again here, however, as they head to France to take on the Saints. Pittsburgh is always going to draw plenty of attention from bettors and at 4-2 SU and ATS on the season, there's reason for those bettors to be confident entering this matchup. We'll go the other way and back the Saints for a second straight game after they rewarded us with a 34-27 win over the Giants last Sunday. That victory snapped their three-game SU and ATS losing streak and while they still have their work cut out for them at 2-4 on the season, I do think the needle is pointing up for this team. The schedule is manageable over the next few weeks with a bye followed by home games against the Browns and Panthers. A win here is imperative to get the season pointing in the right direction ahead of the bye. The fact that we're being spotted points is a bonus. Take New Orleans (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors figure to be all over the Vikings on Sunday as they come in 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, not to mention the fact that they just enjoyed a bye week. Meanwhile, the Colts have dropped the cash in consecutive games including an embarrassing home loss to the lowly Titans last Sunday. This Indianapolis team is certainly capable of better. Remember, it took the Chiefs to overtime at Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 2. All is certainly not lost after consecutive defeats but it's imperative the Colts turn it around here. I like their chances of taking this game down to the wire at the very least. Take Indianapolis (10*).