Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

My selection is on Yale plus the points over Butler at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I simply feel these two teams are mirror images of one another with the potential for the case to be made for Yale to be the slightly superior team at both ends of the floor, yet here we are catching more than a handful of points with the visiting Bulldogs. Yale does come off a win but non-cover against Stony Brook last time out but there's not much to complain about as it had previously a perfect six-for-six covering in line games this season. Butler comes off consecutive games shooting better than 50% from the field but should be held in check by a Yale defense that has allowed an average of just 19 made field goals on 55 attempts this season. By contrast, Butler has yielded seven more made field goals on only four additional attempts per game this season. While I realize Butler has faced the tougher schedule, I'm not convinced the lofty pointspread is warranted here. Additionally, Butler has made good on just shy of 74% of its free throw attempts this season, not a sustainable percentage in my opinion, while also sending its opponents to the line only 11 times per contest, also unsustainable. Take Yale (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup on Tuesday night in Ottawa. The Kings head out on the road after a disappointing 1-3 homestand that started with a 3-2 loss to these same Senators a little over a week ago. That was a successful revenge trip to Los Angeles after the Sens had dropped both meetings with the Kings last season, including a 2-0 defeat here in Ottawa. I believe they'll find the going a little tougher this time around as the Kings look to get this eastern road swing off to a positive start. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles is 24-18 after losing two of its previous three games over the last two seasons and 15-11 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the same stretch. Better still, the Kings are 22-12 after giving up three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons and have given up just 2.7 goals per contest after allowing four or more goals in their previous game over the same stretch (40-game sample size), outscoring the opposition by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sens are a woeful 3-14 in their last 17 home games after scoring three goals or more in consecutive contests, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Dallas over Toronto at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday.

The Maple Leafs finally lost a game on Saturday as they fell by a 3-2 score in Tampa. Meanwhile, the Stars check in off a disappointing 6-5 home loss against the Wild on Sunday - a game that saw them stage a furious rally but ultimately come away with just a single point. There was no shame in that shootout defeat, however, and Dallas remains a solid 7-5 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.3 goals. The Leafs were bound to come back to Earth following an extended winning run and I don't like the spot for them here as they come off a two-day layoff following Saturday's defeat, not to mention the fact that they'll be taking the ice for only the second time in the last six days. The 'rest vs. rust' discussion comes into play (especially at this early stage of the season) and given how well Toronto had been playing, I believe it could hit a bit of a lull here. This should be a game the Stars have had circled after dropping a 3-2 decision in Toronto back in October. Dallas didn't play particularly well in that contest but was still right there in the end, which should provide some confident that it can gain an ounce of revenge here at home. Take Dallas (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams have met three times since the start of last season, including a 3-2 Senators victory in Los Angeles just over a week ago. Of those three games, only one came all that close to going 'over' the total and that was thanks only to an empty-net goal from the Kings in a 4-2 win last season. The lone matchup between them here in Ottawa since the start of last season resulted in a 2-0 Los Angeles victory. The Sens did explode for five goals in their most recent contest but that came against the lowly Sharks. In fact, the only other occasion where Ottawa scored more than three goals over its last eight games came against another of the league's worst teams in the Ducks. Los Angeles will undoubtedly be looking to tighten things up here off a 1-3 homestand. Noting that the 'under' is 25-13 with an average total of just 5.5 goals scored when the Sens play at home after their previous contest totalled seven or more goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Switzerland +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Tuesday.

I'll take a flyer on Switzerland grabbing a half-goal against Portugal here as I believe there's a considerably better than 50/50 chance that this one is all-level (or the Swiss leading) after 90 minutes. Portugal has impressed in the tournament so far but it's not as if it has been blowing the doors off the opposition. Switzerland has been down this road before, giving tougher opponents all they can handle in previous tournament. In other words, I don't believe the stage is too big for the Swiss here. They were in a pressure-packed situation against Serbia last Friday and came through with flying colours. I believe both sides will ultimately prove difficult to break down in this one, with a 1-1 result after 90 minutes a quite likely outcome. The status of Swiss keeper Yann Sommer will obviously be important to keep an eye on leading up to the match. If he's able to man the goal, I would consider sprinkling a little on the Swiss three-way moneyline as well here. Take Switzerland +0.5 goals (8*).

Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Morocco +1 goal over Spain at 10 am et on Tuesday.

I think a lot of casual bettors saw all they needed from Spain in its boot-stomping 7-0 rout of Costa Rica two weeks ago. Since then, the Spaniards have managed a draw against Germany and a defeat at the hands of Japan to ultimately finish second in their group, leading to a date with upstart Morocco in the knockout stage on Tuesday. This is likely the matchup that Spain actually wanted - that was evident in its late game activity when trailing against Japan last time out. I do think this could be a 'be careful what you wish for' situation, however, as Morocco can give it trouble in my opinion. Here, we'll note that Morocco in now undefeated in its last nine matches across all competitions. It has successfully put the opposition on its back foot more often than not, striking first in six of its last eight contests. So again, its short-term success in this tournament hasn't been a fluke by any means. Of course, facing Spain is no easy task as it has scored first in five consecutive matches. With that being said, this is a side that has only managed to come away victorious in five of its last 10 contests overall with three of those victories coming by more than a single goal. I believe there's a good chance we see these two sides all square through 90 minutes, similar to what we saw from Japan and Croatia yesterday. But rather than play the 'draw' we'll give due respect to Morocco and catch a little insurance in the process. Take Morocco +1 goal (8*).