Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on the Athletics over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams enter this series riding losing streaks with the Athletics off back-to-back losses to the Angels and the Giants coming off a three-game sweep against the Marlins. I'm far more confident in the A's ability to bounce back here. A's starter Aaron Civale dodged the Angels and a lineup that has owned him to face a Giants lineup that he has tamed, holding them to 12 hits in 71 collective at-bats (.169) to go along with a .501 OPS. Civale has understandably struggled at home this season as Sacramento and Las Vegas have been what you would call a hitter's paradise. He owns an ERA just north of three on the road. Robbie Ray has had some good fortune for the Giants recently as they've won each of his last five starts even though he hasn't been all that consistent. Ray has shown his age so far this season, posting a 4.96 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. Current A's hitters haven't seen a lot of Ray, but what they have seen, they've liked, going 8-for-28 (.286) with a .998 OPS. Three of the six A's hitters that have faced Ray have homered off of him. Take the Athletics (10*).

My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 4:05 pm et on Tuesday.

Peter Lambert is by no means a household name but he's pitched well for the Astros this season and particularly of late, logging a 3.92 FIP and 1.11 WHIP on the campaign and having given up just six earned runs in 23 2/3 innings of work over his last four outings. It's not as if the Blue Jays are tearing the cover off the ball right now. They rank 27th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Shane Bieber will make his return after starting the year on the I.L. for Toronto. He'll be tasked with taming an Astros lineup that ranks in the top half of the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Bieber was good but not great in seven outings for the Jays last season. He certainly draws a tough matchup here noting that current Astros hitters have gone 21-for-55 (.382) witih a .959 OPS against him. While the Blue Jays do hold the bullpen advantage in this game, I don't think it's significant enough to warrant the price given the edge Houston appears to have in the starting pitching matchup (and at the plate in terms of current form). Of note, few teams have been better than the Astros at closing out games this season as they've converted 22 saves while blowing only four. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over Baltimore at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday.

The Angels fell flat in a 6-1 loss to the Orioles to open this series last night. We'll call for them to bounce back on Tuesday and end Baltimore's three-game winning streak. The O's will hand the ball to Shane Baz. He had a good outing wasted in a 3-0 loss in Seattle last time out. Baz is just 4-7 on the season and 14-19 going back to the start of last year. He owns a 3.81 FIP and 1.36 WHIP on the campaign. Soon to be 24-year old rookie right-hander Ryan Johnson will counter for the Angels. He figures to be happy to be pitching at home after making his first two starts in Chicago against the Cubs and Sacramento against the Athletics. Johnson figures to have a short leash in this game but I do think he'll get some run support, unlike what we saw in his first two starts (two runs combined). The O's bullpen didn't have to be good in last night's lopsided affair but it's worth noting that it has logged a 5.39 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season. While the Halos 'pen has certainly struggled as well, Los Angeles isn't the team laying considerable chalk in this one. Take Los Angeles (8*).