Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Spurs/Jazz UNDER 218.5

I like taking the UNDER in the 2nd game of these double-header situations in the NBA this season.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and the Spurs and Jazz are very familiar with each other having just played in Utah on Monday.

Now they face off again in Salt Lake City tonight in the 2nd game of this double-header.  The Jazz won 110-99 for just 209 combined points in the first meeting, and we have a total of 218.5 for the rematch.  Both teams shot well too with the Jazz making 50% and the Spurs 46.7% in that first meeting, so they it's going to be hard seeing them top 218.5 points tonight.

Utah isn't nearly as potent offensively without its top two guards in Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.  The Jazz have been held to 110 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  They have been held to 112 or fewer in seven of their last eight as well.  The Spurs have been held to 112 or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games and prefer to slow the pace down as it is.

Utah ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency this season while San Antonio ranks 12th.  The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Utah.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five home games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Jazz last nine games as favorites.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

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15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +113

The Toronto Blue Jays were on a 7-2 run before losing each of the first two games of this series to the Oakland A's.  It's safe to say they will come back highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3, and I like their chances due to their advantage on the mound tonight.

Robbie Ray is one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA in four starts this season, including 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two road starts.  He'll be opposed by Chris Bassitt, who is 2-2 with a 3.93 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three home starts.  Bassitt has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts against them.

Toronto is 14-4 in its last 18 games when playing with double-revenge, two straight losses against an opponent.  The Blue Jays are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings even after losing the first two games of this series.  They get back to their dominance of the A's tonight.  Take the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -159

The Los Angeles Dodgers were swept by the Cubs in their double-header yesterday.  It's safe to say they will come back highly motivated for a victory today to avoid the series sweep.  And we are getting them at a discount as -159 favorites given their huge advantage on the mound.

Walker Buehler is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 1-0 with a 3.16 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in five starts this season.  Buehler has posted a 2.13 ERA and 0.631 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.  He'll be opposed by Adbert Alzolay, who is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in four starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA in two home starts.

The Dodgers are 48-17 in their last 65 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 46-18 in its last 64 games as a road favorite.  The Dodgers are 57-26 in their last 83 games following a loss.  The Cubs are 1-7 in their last eight during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Yankees OVER 9

I cashed in the OVER 8.5 between the Yankees and Astros last night and I'm back on the OVER 9 today.  These are two of the most potent offenses in the American League playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball in Yankee Stadium.  Oddsmakers haven't set the total high enough again today.

Jordan Montgomery is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA in five starts this season and 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA in his last three starts, which have come against three suspect lineups in Baltimore, Cleveland and Tampa Bay.  Montgomery is 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA in three career starts against Houston and this is his stiffest challenge of 2021 to date tonight.

Luis Garcia has solid numbers at 0-2 with a 3.21 ERA in three starts.  But this will be his toughest test of the season, and he is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his two road starts this season.  Don't expect him to last very long here as the Yankees get into the Astros' bullpen early.  Garcia is only averaging 4.7 innings per start this season.

The Astros and Yankees have combined for 9 or more runs in eight of their last 13 meetings.  The OVER is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -13.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are determined to get the top seed in the Eastern Conference as they sit 1.5 games ahead of the Nets for 1st place.  They are playing like it as they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by an average of 22.2 points per game.

Now they should make easy work of the Houston Rockets, who are just 5-39 SU & 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games overall.  That includes two straight blowout home losses to the Warriors by 26 and the Knicks by 25 coming in.

The Rockets just can't even be competitive right now because they are missing so many key players like Gordon, Wall, House, Wilson and Brown.  Christian Wood will try to play through a knee injury, while DJ Augustin is questionable tonight.

Houston is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after trailing in its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  Philadelphia is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.  The Rockets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Philadelphia won't take Houston lightly tonight due to its current standing in the Eastern Conference.  Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are highly motivated for a victory as they sit in 10th place in the West and currently in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They lead the Pelicans by 2 games for that final playoff spot.

Now the Spurs want revenge from a 99-110 loss at Utah on Monday in what was a terrible spot for them.  The Spurs were coming off three straight losses by 5 points or less, were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  They had nothing left to give and still made that game competitive.

Now the Spurs come back as 6.5-point dogs in the rematch and had yesterday off to finally rest.  They should be able to put their best foot forward tonight, and that will be good enough to hang with and possibly beat a Utah Jazz team that just isn't as good without both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.  The Jazz have been held to 112 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall.  That's a big reason they are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.

San Antonio is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  San Antonio is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +5

The Washington Wizards are surging right now as they try and make the playoffs.  They have gone 13-3 SU in their last 16 games overall with two of those losses coming by a combined 4 points.  Now they are catching 5 points from the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

This is an awful spot for the Bucks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days, and their 8th game in 13 days.  And they are coming off two straight wins over the Brooklyn Nets, so this is a huge letdown spot for them as well.  Not to mention they won't have anything left in the tank for the Wizards, who play at a break-neck pace and will test those tired legs.

Washington is 10-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Wizards are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bucks OVER 240.5

The Washington Wizards are an OVER bettors' dream.  They play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA averaging 106.3 possessions per game.  And they have been putting up huge point totals during their 13-3 SU run in their last 16 games.

Indeed, the Wizards have scored 116 or more points in 13 consecutive games now.  They are coming off a 154-141 victory over the Indiana Pacers in regulation.  And now they take on a Milwaukee Bucks team that also likes to get up and down.  The Bucks rank 3rd in pace this season at 104.1 possessions per game and 6th in offensive efficiency.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in this series including the 255 and 244 points the Wizards and Bucks combined for in their two meetings this season.  They have combined for 239 or more points in all seven of those meetings and 244 or more six times.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -11

The Portland Trail Blazers are starting to finally live up to their potential.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall with all four of those victories coming by double-digits and by an average of 17.8 points per game.  

The four wins came against Indiana, Memphis, Brooklyn and Boston so it's not like they are beating up against a soft schedule.  Their only loss came on the road at Atlanta in a very tough situation as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days.

But now the Blazers are rested having yesterday off.  The same cannot be said for the Cavaliers, who are in an awful spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns last night.  They are already missing several key players and they could rest some more starters after all five starters played at least 33 minutes last night.

The Cavaliers are now 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall with those 10 losses coming by an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Cavaliers are 1-12 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games this season.  Portland beat Cleveland 129-110 at home in their lone meeting earlier this season.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.