Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Astros/Cubs OVER 10

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the Astros and Cubs today.  There are expected to be 16 MPH winds blowing out to right-center inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field in Chicago.  These two terrible starting pitchers are in line to get rocked tonight.

J.P. France is 0-2 with a 7.08 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in four starts for the Astros this season.  He has already allowed 16 earned runs, 3 homers and 34 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.  The Cubs are scoring 6.2 runs per game at home this season.

Jordan Wicks is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in four starts for the Cubs.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 30 base runners in 17 innings while averaging just 4.2 innings per start.

Houston is 15-4 OVER in its last 19 games against a starting pitcher that averages fewer than 5 innings per start.  The Astros should finally get their bats going today after a slow start to the season offensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -151

The Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Los Angeles Angels.  The Orioles have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games behind one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Angels have scored 2 runs or fewer in four of their last five games, and they are 0-5 in their last five games overall while scoring a total of 9 runs or an average of 1.8 runs per game.

Grayson Rodriquez is one of the best young starters in baseball.  He is 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four starts this season.  One of those starts came against the Angels on March 30th as he held them to one earned run in 6 innings with 9 K's in a 13-4 victory.

Griffin Canning is 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts for the Angels this season, allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 19 innings.  One of those starts came against the Orioles opposite Rodriquez on March 30th where he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of that 13-4 defeat.  Canning fell to 0-3 with a 9.17 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles.

Baltimore is 14-4 in its last 18 meetings with the Angels, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  The Orioles are 19-4 (+13.4 Units) in their last 23 games as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Nationals OVER 9.5

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four starts while allowing 20 earned runs and 44 base runners in 22 1/3 innings.

Corbin is 0-4 with a 10.71 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 25 earned runs, 6 homers and 50 base runners in 21 innings.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on April 16th in his last start.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this OVER 9.5 on their own.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season with one of the best lineups in baseball.  But the Nationals should contribute as well as they have scored 5 and 6 runs in their last two games.

The Dodgers are 54-31 OVER in their last 85 road games.  James Paxton is 10-1 OVER in his 11 career starts as a road favorite of -175 or more.  Washington is 50-31 OVER in its last 81 games off two or more consecutive unders.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Washington tonight that will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130)

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four starts while allowing 20 earned runs and 44 base runners in 22 1/3 innings.

Corbin is 0-4 with a 10.71 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 25 earned runs, 6 homers and 50 base runners in 21 innings.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on April 16th in his last start.  The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last six games against Corbin with all five wins coming by 4 runs or more.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound today that will have them winning this game by multiple runs.  James Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 16 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Dallas ML -122

The Dallas Mavericks shot 2-of-18 from 3 in the 1H and scored only 8 points total in the 2Q in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers.  They still only lost by 12.  That was as bad as it could have gone for the Mavericks as Daniel Gafford picked up two early fouls and changed their game plan.  Game 2 will go much differently tonight.

I believe the Mavericks are the better team and that will show in Game 2 tonight.  The Mavericks went 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games to close out the regular season in which they were trying to win games and healthy.  They are fully healthy now and trying to win games.

The Clippers shot 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season.  This is clearly a great matchup for them, but it didn't play out that way in Game 1 as Damian Lillard scored 35 first half points and it was just too much for them to overcome.

Lillard won't be as hot again, and the Bucks won't out shoot the Pacers like they did in Game 1.  The Pacers shot just 39.6% from the field and 8-of-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will have some major positive shooting regression in their favor in Game 2.

The Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again in Game 2.  They can play one good game without him, but to continue to play great games without him is unsustainable.  He's one of the best players in the NBA for a reason with all he can do on both ends of the court.

Indiana is 26-11 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in Tuesday road games this season.  Indiana is 28-14 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pacers are 20-6 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.