Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: San Diego Padres -131

The San Diego Padres had won five consecutive games prior to losing to Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes yesterday.  Look for them to start a new winning streak tonight as they have the advantage on the mound this time around.

Yu Darvish is 4-1 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.661 WHIP in three home starts.  Darvish is also 2-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in seven career starts against Milwaukee.

Aaron Ashby will be making a spot start for the Brewers today.  He has been poor on the road, going 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA in 37 2/3 innings pitched away from home in his career.  Ashby is 0-1 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.655 WHIP in two road starts this season alone.  He has walked 13 batters in 13 2/3 innings as a starter this season with control clearly being an issue for him.

The Padres are 11-2 following a loss this season.  The Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  San Diego is 12-2 in its last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Padres Wednesday.

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15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +152

The Boston Red Sox are playing up to their potential finally.  They have won six straight while scoring at least 5 runs in all six victories.  That includes their 16-3 victory over the White Sox yesterday as +150 underdogs.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against Chicago tonight.

Rich Hill has held his own this season at 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in seven starts.  Hill has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in four starts away from home.  He won't have to face CF Luis Robert, who is out due to COVID.  He should give the Red Sox a chance to win here.

Lucas Giolito has posted great numbers this year at 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in six starts.  But he has done it against a very soft schedule with four of those starts coming against the Royals, Guardians, Cubs and Tigers.  Giolito has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP in four career starts against them.  Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 7.5

The Orioles and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in six of their last seven meetings with the OVER going 6-1 in those seven games.  The OVER is 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 5-1 in Orioles last six games overall and they have scored 6 runs or more in five of those six games.

So the Orioles are going through their best stretch of offense of the season against two of the best pitching staffs in the league in the Rays and Yankees.  They should be able to contribute to the OVER, which is key when we already have one of the best offenses in the league in the Yankees scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  

Tyler Wells is 0-3 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in four starts this season.  JP Sears will be making his first career start for the Yankees tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least 4 runs in all nine victories.  They have opened this series by crushing the Nationals 10-1 in Game 1 and 9-4 in Game 2.  It should be more of the same Wednesday with their big advantage on the mound.

Julio Urias is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 3-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Urias has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 (4-0 money line) with a 3.05 ERA in four career starts against them.

Erick Fedde is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in four home starts.  The Nationals are just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall with all nine losses coming by 3 runs or more.

The Dodgers are 36-7 in their last 43 games vs. bad teams that win 38% or fewer of their games on the season and beating these teams by 3.3 runs per game.  Washington is 8-24 in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -1.5

I'm 4-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3 and the Celtics in Game 4.  I am going to fade the Zig Zag theory here tonight and get back on the Celtics for a couple of different reasons, not the least of which is the obvious fact that the Celtics are the better team based on what we've seen so far.

The Celtics are two poor quarters away from sweeping the Heat in this series.  They have been dominant when Robert Williams has played, and he is expected to play tonight.  In fact, the Celtics could be at full strength tonight if Marcus Smart (questionable) plays.

The Heat are really banged up.  Jimmy Butler is going to play but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4, making just 3-of-14 shots without getting to the FT line once.  He can't be as aggressive as he normally is with the bum knee that forced him to sit the entire 2nd half of Game 3.  Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are all nursing injuries and questionable.  There's rumors the Heat could have some COVID issues as well.

The Celtics are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  They take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 5 tonight.  Bet with the Celtics Wednesday.