Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack’s Free Pick Wednesday: Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 237 

The Houston Rockets have gone small ball since trading away Clint Capela.  They have scored 123, 120 and 135 points in their first three games back from the break and are playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA. 

While the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, the Grizzlies are 6th.  Look for them to push the tempo even more now that they need to play small ball considering they are without two of their best big men in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, who are probably their two best defenders as well. 

The Grizzlies have allowed 129, 124 and 117 points in their first three games back from the break.  This is not a good defensive team as it is, and the Rockets should hang a big number on them.  But the Grizzlies should also be able to score enough to push this number OVER the total. 

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Houston) - after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games against an opponent that is off two straight losses by 10 points or more are 57-26 (68.7%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Bradley -3.5 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the MVC when healthy.  And they just recently got fully healthy with their two best players returning from injury.  The Braves are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Valparaiso. 

Bradley should make easy work of one of the worst teams in the conference in Illinois State tonight.  The Redbirds are just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS in MVC play this season.  That includes their 63-75 loss as 8-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting this season. 

Bradley owns Illinois State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with those four wins coming by an average of 11.8 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying tonight when they are clearly the superior team. 

The Braves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  The Redbirds are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Illinois State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Take Bradley Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -2.5 

I love the value we are getting with Southern Illinois as only 2.5-point home favorites over Indiana State tonight.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Salukis after they have lost three of their last four coming in.  Two losses came on the road to Northern Iowa and Valpo and the other was a home loss to Bradley by 2 in overtime.  Those are three of the best teams in the conference. 

Southern Illinois has been a juggernaut at home this season.  The Salukis are 12-2 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten some of the best teams in the MVC at home this year in Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago.  And they want revenge from a 56-68 road loss at Indiana State in their first meeting this season.  They should have their revenge considering the Salukis are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home meetings with the Sycamores. 

Indiana State is yet another MVC team that has been great at home but terrible on the road.  The Sycamores are 3-8 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them off two straight wins over Northern Iowa at home and Evansville on the road by a combined 5 points. 

Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Salukis are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season, winning by 14.8 points per game on average.  The Sycamores are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Salukis are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -5 

Off two straight losses, the Penn State Nittany Lions come back highly motivated for a win tonight against Rutgers.  They also have revenge in mind after falling 61-72 at Rutgers on January 7th.  Expect a big effort from the Nittany Lions tonight because of it. 

Penn State is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game at home this year.  Five of their six Big Ten home wins have come by 6 points or more. 

Rutgers is 1-7 SU in true road games this season with its only win coming at Nebraska.  Six of those seven losses have come by 5 points or more.  I just think this is a generous price to back the Nittany Lions tonight as only 5-point home favorites with all things considered. 

Rutgers is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games off two straight games where it attempts 12 or fewer free throws.  Penn State is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Roll with Penn State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 

The Clippers had lost three straight for the first time all season before bouncing back with a 27-point win over Memphis.  They made many comments leading into that game that the time was now to get it together.  I look for them to stay focused at Phoenix tonight and take care of business. 

While we will ‘buy low’ on the Clippers after dropping three of four, we’ll ’sell high’ on the Suns after winning three of their last four.  Two of the wins came against the Bulls and Warriors, but they are coming off a shocking 20-point win at struggling Utah as 8.5-point dogs.  That result has them overvalued.  The Suns will be without Kelly Oubre Jr. tonight with a knee injury as well. 

The Clippers simply own the Suns.  Los Angeles is 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 meetings with the Suns, winning those 13 games by an average of 15.5 points per game.  All things considered, this is a very short number for the Clippers to be laying tonight. 

Plays against underdogs (Phoenix) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent that went under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a road favorite.  Phoenix is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games.  Take the Clippers Wednesday. 

20* Celtics/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -4.5 

The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping all three games since returning from the All-Star Break.  I know we’re going to get a max effort out of them tonight, so I’m willing to lay the short number at home against the Celtics. 

Boston is in one of the toughest spots in the NBA.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game since the All-Star Break. I have to believe they are out of gas, and playing in altitude in Utah makes it even tougher. 

The Jazz are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with the three wins all coming by 8 points or more.  The Celtics will be without their best player in Kemba Walker once again tonight, while the Jazz are fully healthy coming into this one. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - off three straight ATS wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Utah is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite.  The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.