Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Rays/Red Sox UNDER 9.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 9.5 ticket between the Rays and Red Sox Sunday.  Temperatures will be around 50 with 15 MPH winds blowing in from center at Fenway Park this afternoon.  These are two tired teams after playing a double-header yesterday as well, so both could elect to rest some regulars.

Taj Bradley has been impressive for the Rays this season at 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in six starts with 42 K's in 30 innings.  He is also 1-1 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.812 WHIP in three road starts.  Tanner Houck has been unfortunate to have a 5.30 ERA in his 10 starts this season when you consider he has a 1.272 WHIP on the year.  His walks and homers allowed have been down as well.

The UNDER is 8-0 in Houck's last eight starts vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game on the season.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Rays last six road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -105

The Cincinnati Reds have quietly been an offensive juggernaut of late.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 12 games overall.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Brewers by a combined 3 runs.

The Reds have a big advantage on the mound today and should be bigger home favorites as a result.  Ben Lively is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings with 22 K's.  Those three starts came against the Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals to give them even more validity.

Adrian Houser is 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in five starts this season for the Brewers, including 0-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in three road starts.  Houser is 4-4 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Reds as well.

The Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 games following two consecutive wins by 2 runs or fewer.  Milwaukee is 1-7 in its last eight games vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15.  The Brewers are 5-11 in their last 16 road games.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* Cubs/Padres NL ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -102

The San Diego Padres will be without Bogaerts, Cruz and Odor today.  The Chicago Cubs have a big advantage on the mound over the Padres and should be favored on the road here in Game 3.  They will also be motivated to bounce back after getting shut out yesterday by Yu Darvish and company.

The Cubs should have much more success at the plate today against lefty Ryan Weathers, who is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in his last three.  Chicago is hitting .298 and scoring 5.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  They are 15-6 in their last 21 games against southpaws.

Marcus Stroman is quietly having a dominant season.  He is 5-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.565 WHIP in his last three.  Stroman owns the Padres, going 3-0 (4-0 money line) with a 2.19 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has never lost to them.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* Yankees/Dodgers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 9

You would be hard-pressed to find two hotter offenses than the Yankees and Dodgers right now.  Plus, light winds are expected to be blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  These teams just went OVER the total in their first two games this series with 12 and 9 combined runs.  It will be more of the same in Game 3 tonight.

The Yankees have scored at least 6 runs in 16 of their last 25 games overall.  The OVER is 18-7 in those 25 games.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  The OVER is 13-3 in those 16 games.

Domingo German has a 3.98 ERA in 10 starts this season and a 5.02 ERA in five road starts.  Bobby Miller has good numbers for the Dodgers, but it has come in just two starts.  This is a big step up in class for Miller, and I expect he and German to both get rocked.

The OVER is 13-3-1 in Dodgers last 17 interleague games.  The OVER is 10-1-1 in Dodgers last 12 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -129

The New York Mets will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Toronto Blue Jays.  With their big advantage on the mound today, I like their chances of taking Game 3.

Kodai Senga has been virtually untouchable at home this season.  He is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in five home starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and one homer in 30 innings.

Yusei Kikuchi has been one of the worst starters in baseball for several years running now.  He has a 4.47 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including a 5.23 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in six road starts.  Kikuchi has already allowed 15 homers in 56 1/3 innings this season.

The Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.  Plays against road underdogs (Toronto) - after scoring 3 runs or less in consecutive games against an opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less in consecutive games are 32-5 (86.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* Heat/Nuggets Game 2 No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

The Miami Heat shot 40.6% as a team and attempted only two free throws in Game 1.  Yet they still only lost by 11 points and had a chance to cover the 9-point spread late.  It's safe to say they have a ton of room for improvement.

Jimmy Butler was passive in Game 1 and getting his guys wide open looks all game that they would normally make.  Max Strus and Caleb Martin were particularly bad combining to shoot 1-of-17 for the game.  Butler will be more aggressive in getting to the rim in Game 2, and the shots will start falling.

The Heat have been a resilient team all season and I expect them to bounce back with a big effort in Game 2.  Miami is 27-15 ATS in its last 42 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a road loss.  Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday.