Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Lakers/Nets OVER 227 

The Lakers play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  This should be a shootout tonight with the Brooklyn Nets, who are really clicking offensively right now.  So we’ll back the OVER 227 as Tuesday’s free pick in pro hoops Tuesday night. 

The Lakers have scored at least 108 points in nine consecutive games and are putting up 113.4 points per game on the season.  They have gone OVER the total in three straight thanks to giving up 354 total points in their last three games overall. 

Brooklyn has also gone OVER the total in three straight.  They are scoring 132.0 points pre game in their last three games while also giving up 123.0 points per game in their last three.  I expect both the Nets and Lakers to top 120 points tonight, though we don’t need nearly that much to get the OVER.  115 points apiece will do. 

Brooklyn is 13-3 OVER in its lsat 16 home games off three or more consecutive wins.  The Nets are 15-4 OVER in their last 19 home games vs. great offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game on the season.  The OVER is 4-1 in Lakers last five road games.  The OVER is 11-4 in Nets last 15 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks +5 

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back upset losses to the Suns and Kings, which followed up 12-3 run that has the Mavericks sitting in first place in their division right now.  They are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight. 

I think the Nuggets are in a big letdown spot tonight.  They have managed to win three straight at home over the Grizzlies, Thunder and Raptors despite playing without three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton.  Teams can play well in the short-term with injuries, but it catches up to them over the long haul due to depth issues.  I think it starts catching up for the Nuggets tonight, especially off their big win over the Raptors last time out as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Mavs. 

Dallas had Denver’s number last season, going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four meetings.  Their two losses came on the road by only 2 and 3 points, and they won their two home meetings with the Nuggets by 17 and 11 points.  And you have to consider that the Nuggets are in a lot worse shape right now than they were last year, while the Mavericks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA and almost 100% healthy. 

The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents, while the Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  Dallas is 29-11 ATS in its lsat 40 games following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri +3 

Xavier is getting too much respect for what it has done in the past, including a 29-6 season last year.  But they lost nearly everyone in G Trevon Bluiett, G J.P. Macura, F Kerem Kanter, F Kaiser Gates and F Sean O’Mara from last year’s team.  They also lost head coach Chris Mack to Louisville.  Their leading returning scorer averaged just 8.7 PPG and they are clearly rebuilding. 

That has been evident in Xavier’s 7-4 SU & 4-6 ATS start tot he season.  And they’ve only played one true road game this season, which was a 15-point loss at Cincinnati as 6.5-point dogs.  They also lost to SDSU and Auburn on a neutral, as well as Wisconsin at home.  Their seven wins have come against IUPUI, Evansville, Illinois, Miami Ohio, Oakland, Ohio and Eastern Kentucky with six of those wins coming at home. 

Missouri is an improved team this season with three returning starters and some nice talent for Cuonzo Martin.  The Tigers are 6-3 with two of their losses coming on the road to very good Iowa State and Kansas State teams.  They did lose at home to Temple 77-79, but Temple is arguably the best team in the AAC.  They beat UCF, another AAC title contender outright as underdogs.  They also upset Oregon State on a neutral.  They should not be home dogs to Xavier tonight. 

The Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The Musketeers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  My final factor favoring Missouri is that they have had 10 days off to prepare for Xavier, while the Musketeers only have two days to get ready for the Tigers after playing on Saturday.  Roll with Missouri Tuesday. 

20* NIU/UAB Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on UAB -1.5 

The UAB Blazers are a tremendous story.  To go from not having a football program at all for two years to going 8-5 in 2017 and then 10-3 and a Conference USA Championship this season is one of the most remarkable feats I’ve ever seen in college football.  These players love head coach Bill Clark, and they’ll be highly motivated to get another win to cap off this impressive season. 

I like their chances of winning this game against a Northern Illinois team that just isn’t very good.  Yes, the Huskies won the MAC, but that conference was way down this season and always struggles in bowl games.  And they had to erase a 29-10 deficit in the second half against Buffalo to win 30-29.  They’ve already reached the pinnacle. 

I’ll gladly fade NIU head coach Rod Carey, who just can’t seem to make anything work in bowl games.  Carey is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in his career in bowl games, and not only are his teams losing, they are getting crushed.  Carey’s teams are getting outscored by 25 points per game on average, and they losing by 18 points per game against the spread on average.  In none of those five games did they even stay within a touchdown of the spread! 

Yes, Northern Illinois has a good defense, but their offense is atrocious.  QB Marcus Childers only averages 5.4 yards per attempt with a 15-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He also rushes for just 2.8 yards per carry on his ridiculous 176 rushing attempts this season. The Huskies score just 20.7 points per game this season.  They are getting outgained by 22.8 yards per game on the year.   It’s just not an offense I’m willing to get behind, and I’ll gladly fade it. 

UAB does have a respectable offense that puts up 29.3 points and 400.1 yards per game.  They also have an elite defense that gives up just 17.3 points and 300.2 yards per game on the year.  They are outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game, which is the sign of a good team and one I want to put my money behind, especially laying less than a field goal here. 

Keep in mind UAB’s season stats got skewed a little too in the final game of the regular season.  They already had a trip to the C-USA Championship clinched, and they didn’t even show up in their 3-27 loss to Middle Tennessee in which they were outgained by 305 yards.  They rested their starters, and then came back the next week and won 27-25 at Middle Tennessee in the rematch.  So if you throw out that meaningless game, the Blazers have outgained the other 12 opponents by over 1600 yards on the season and by 134 yards per game. 

The Huskies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  Northern Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. C-USA opponents.  UAB is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games following a two-game road trip.  Again, the Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games.  And the MAC is 6-22 SU over the last five years in bowl games, and 1-10 SU the last two years.  Bet UAB Tuesday.