Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Northern Iowa +7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers have quietly gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming by 4 at Belmont and by 8 at Indiana State.  The Panthers should not be catching 7.5 points against the Drake Bulldogs tonight.  Drake has been overvalued all season at 17-6 SU but just 8-13-1 ATS.  

The Bulldogs were able to beat Belmont in their first game without their best player in Tucker DeVries (18.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG), but a lot of times teams rally in that first game without their best player.  They then come back down to reality in the coming games, which I think will be the case for the Bulldogs here.  Their next-leading scorer only averages just 10.5 PPG.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this in-state rivalry.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Drake is 0-8 ATS following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

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15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +10.5

The Florida State Seminoles were a disaster in non-conference play this season.  They have been undervalued since.  The Seminoles have gone 5-6 SU but 8-3 ATS in conference play this season.  They have actually done their best work on the road of late, winning outright 84-71 as 4.5-point dogs at Notre Dame and 71-64 as 7.5-point dogs at Pitt in their last two road games.

The Seminoles should not be double-digit underdogs to the NC State Wolfpack tonight.  This feels like a letdown spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame by 3 as 9.5-point home favorites and Wake Forest by 2 as 3-point road dogs.  They also only beat Miami by 2 in their previous home game.  They remain without Jack Clark (9.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Dusan Mahorcic (8.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG).

The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Wolfpack are 17-35-3 ATS in their last 55 home games.  NC State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 146

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Marquette beat Villanova 68-66 for just 134 combined points in their first meeting this season.  I expect another low scoring game that stays UNDER 146 combined points in the rematch as well.

Marquette could be without leading scorer Kam Jones (16.0 PPG), who is questionable after leaving the DePaul game early with a hip injury last time out.  Villanova is without G Jordan Longino (6.7 PPG).  These two injuries will also help us cash in this UNDER ticket.  

Villanova ranks 337th in adjusted tempo this season and always forces opponents to play in the half court.  Marquette will be forced to do the same, especially if they don't have Jones tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +10.5

Purdue is the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are going to be difficult for them to live up to.  Now they are double-digit favorites against Penn State tonight, and this number is a few notches too high.

I believe this is a letdown spot for the Boilermakers.  They already beat Penn State 76-63 on a neutral on January 8th.  They are coming off a big home win against Michigan State and have a big road game on deck at Indiana.  That makes this a sandwich spot, and I don't think we get their best effort as a result.

Penn State obviously wants revenge from that earlier defeat.  The Nittany Lions have been playing well going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games since that loss to Purdue.  All three wins came by double-digits, and one of the losses came by just 3 points at Wisconsin.

Purdue is 0-6 ATS following eight or more consecutive wins this season.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS following a home win by 10 points or more this season.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when revenging a same-season loss.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER 230.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the 76ers and Magic.  I love betting UNDERS in these situations.  They combined for 228 points in that first meeting on Monday and I expect an even lower scoring game in the rematch.

The 76ers rank 22nd in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency, making them a dead nuts UNDER team.  They will come back with an inspired effort defensively tonight after getting upset by the Magic in that first meeting.

13 of the last 16 meetings in this series have seen 230 or fewer combined points, making for a 13-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Plays on the UNDER where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game after allowing 115 points or more in two consecutive games are 74-34 (68.5%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -5

This is a rare opportunity to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies after going through their worst stretch of the season.  They finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 112-100 home win over the Pacers last time out.  All five losses came on the road, but the Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA at home.

Indeed, the Grizzlies are 21-3 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying against the Portland Trail Blazers, who are coming off a five-game home stand but are just 10-15 SU & 12-13 ATS on the road.

Memphis is 10-1 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  Portland is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a top teams that win between 60% and 70% of their games.  The Blazers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Grizzlies are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.