Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -105

The Cardinals have won four of their last five games and are only 1.5 games back in the wild card.  Every game is a must-win for this team moving forward, and I trust them in this spot.  The Pirates are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall and haven't offered much resistance to contenders.

We'll fade Jameson Taillon here.  He is 7-7 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 23 starts, including 3-5 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Taillon is also 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in four career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 8-2 in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 0-4 in Taillon's last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cleveland Browns -1.5

The Cleveland Browns are clearly improved this season despite their 0-2 start.  They were competitive against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Ravens.  They were only outgained by four total yards in those two games combined, so statistically they hung right with them.

The problem with the Browns thus far has been turnovers and special teams mistakes.  They committed five turnovers against the Ravens, yet still had numbers chances to cover the spread as 8-point dogs in a 14-point loss.  They only lost by 3 to the Steelers, and the difference in that game was a punt block that was returned for a TD by the Steelers.

Now the Browns will be motivated for a rare victory here against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts are 0-2 and haven't even been competitive despite playing weaker competition.  They were outgained by 148 yards in their 9-46 loss to the Rams.  Then they were outgained by a depleted Cardinals team by 123 yards last week in a game they did not deserve to go to overtime against.  That games was a bigger blowout than the final score. The Rams and Cardinals aren't as good as the Steelers and Ravens, which is a key points here.

The Browns have the better defense, and it's not really even close.  They are giving up just 313 yards per game and 5.3 per play thus far, while the Colts are allowing 381 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  The Browns are averaging 311 yards per game and 5.3 per play on offense, so they have moved the ball fine.  The Colts are only averaging 245 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  So the Browns are basically dead even in yards per game and yards per play on the season, while the Colts are getting outgained by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.

Indianapolis is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.  Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 51-24 (68%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

Jack Jones is riding a MASSIVE 754-647 Football Run long-term! That includes a 78-50 Run on the gridiron over his last 128 releases dating back to last season, and a 23-11 Run over the last two weeks in football!  He is also on a 32-21 NFL Run!

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15* Bengals/Packers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +9

The Cincinnati Bengals are just the type of 'buy low' team that I like to back.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start.  They haven't score a touchdown yet, one of only two teams (49ers) to accomplish that feat through two weeks.  And the 49ers covered against the Rams on Thursday and scored 39 points.

The Bengals are in a good spot to correct their mistakes.  They are coming off a mini-bye week after playing last Thursday, which was the perfect time to fire their offensive coordinator.  It gives them extra time to get used to Bill Lazor's offense as he steps into the position after being the QB coach.  And this was a banged up team that has had extra time to get healthy as well.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday game, and we saw both the Pats and Chiefs cover in this situation last week.

The Bengals just have too much talent on offense to be held in check for much longer.   They have AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Tyler Boyd and a three-headed monster at RB led by talented rookie Joe Mixon, who should see an increased role with Lazor calling the shots.  Playing two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Ravens and Texans has certainly been a big reason for their offensive struggles.  I strongly believe the Bengals will live up to their potential on this side of the ball this week.

The Packers have been one of the biggest public teams for years.  Bettors are just going to back them blindly because they are at home.  But remember, this is a Packers team that started 4-6 last year and needed a big run just to make the playoffs.  Aaron Rodgers is making a habit of working magic late in seasons, but it's also been a trend that this team gets off to slow starts and is a money burner early in the year.

That's going to be the case again in 2017 simply because the Packers have huge injury concerns right now that they can't just overcome and win games by margins.  Their best defensive player in DT Mike Daniels left the Atlanta game last week and is questionable.  LB Nick Perry and LB Ahmad Brooks are both questionable.  And that's just on defense.

The problems are much bigger on offense.  The Packers played without their two starting tackles along the offensive line last week and both are questionable to return this week.  Both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were knocked out of the game last week due to injury and are questionable to play.  This is simply a mash unit right now that isn't capable of covering a 9-point spread against a hungry Bengals team coming off a mini-bye week.

Plays against home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-5 (86.8%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +13.5

Yes, I'm fading the Patriots again this week.  I had the Chiefs in Week 1 against them which was an easy winner. But I lost with the Saints last week.  However, there were a few takeaways from that Saints game that has me quick to fade the Patriots again.

New England jumped out to a 30-13 halftime lead. But they only scored 6 points in the 2nd half.  And a lot of that had to do with the injuries suffered on offense throughout the game  The Patriots came into the game without both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

Then Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett all got hurt.  Hogan is probable to play this week, while Gronk and Dorsett are both questionable.  I know the Patriots find ways to score no matter what, but they are seriously limited right now on offense.  So asking them to beat the Texans by two touchdowns here is asking too much.

I like what I saw from the Texans last week.  They led the NFL in total defense last year and have a dominant unit again.  They held the Bengals to just 3 field goals.

Offensively, the switch to Deshaun Watson at QB is huge for this team I think.  His athletic ability helps mask some of the issues on the offensive line.  That was evident with his 49-yard TD run that basically won the game for the Texans.  He didn't turn the ball over, and they rushed for 168 yards as a team.  I'd like to see Watson use his legs more because he's a serious weapon.

The Texans should have WR Bruce Ellington and TE Ryan Griffin back this week from concussions.  CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Will Fuller and TE Stephen Andersen all returned to practice this week after missing last week.  So Watson will have more weapons to work with and should find plenty of success against this soft Patriots defense.

The Patriots allowed 31 PPG in the preseason.  Now they are giving up 31 PPG and 483 YPG in the regular season through two games.  Their most important defensive player, LB Dont'a Hightower, missed last week with an injury and is questionable to return this week.

It's a huge advantage for the Texans getting that 3 extra days of rest after playing last Thursday.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday night game and getting that mini-bye, which has helped the Texans get heatlhy.  Both the Patriots and Chiefs covered last week in this same situation.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.  Take the Texans Sunday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6

The New Orleans Saints are 0-2 right now because of the difficult schedule they have faced.  They were 3-point road dogs at Minnesota and lost 19-29, and then they were 6.5-point home dogs against a hungry Patriots team and lost 36-20.  Sure, they could have been more competitive, but they are 0-2 just like they're supposed to be.  And they're being undervalued now because of it.

Carolina would be 0-2 against the same schedule.  Instead, the Panthers are 2-0 thanks to playing the 49ers and Bills.  They were 4.5-point favorites at San Francisco and 6.5-point home favorites over the Bills.  But since they're 2-0 they are being overvalued now.  This is clearly a great 'buy low, sell high' situation as we'll buy low on the Saints and sell high on the Panthers.

The Saints will be extremely motivated to avoid an 0-3 start, while the Panthers could fall flat after their 2-0 start.  And the Panthers have all kinds of issues right now that leaves me wondering how they can possibly be 6-point favorites here.  Their offense has been terrible, and they have some serious injury concerns right now.

Cam Newton was injured against the Bills and didn't look right.  He will play this week, but he won't be 100%.  They lost his favorite weapon in TE Greg Olsen to a broken foot, and now he's out for the next 6-8 weeks.  Plus, T Matt Kalil (neck) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) are both questionable this week with injuries.

This was a Carolina offense that was struggling even before all these injuries.  They are scoring just 16.0 points per game, averaging 271 yards per game, and just 4.4 yards per play.  Now I don't know what they are going to be able to do with Olsen out and a hobbled Newton and Benjamin.  Their only healthy weapon is Christian McCaffrey, and they're limiting his touches this season to try and keep him healthy and fresh.

Taking a look at this head-to-head series, this is a rivalry that always goes down to the wire.  In fact, all four meetings over the last three seasons have been decided by 5 points or less, including three by exactly a field goal.  And that's where I think this line should be, Carolina -3, not Carolina -6.  And three points of value in the NFL is huge.

The Saints have been moving the ball fine, but they've had to settle for too many field goals.  The Panthers have faced two awful passing teams in Buffalo and San Francisco, making their defense look better than it is.  The Panthers have a good front seven, but their secondary is their weakness as it has been since they lost Josh Norman.  Drew Brees is just the guy to exploit that weakness this week.  New Orleans has averaged 30.3 points per game in its last four meetings with Carolina.

Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.