Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -6.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers should roll the Rhode Island Rams today at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut.  They are the more talented, more experienced team and this is really a shorter number than it should be Sunday afternoon. 

The Mountaineers returned four players who averaged at least 8.7 points per game from last year’s team.  And I think they are being undervalued right now because they already have three losses on the season against a difficult schedule.  But they also have wins by 7 points or more against St. Joe’s, Valpo and Pitt, and they are playing a lot better since a slow start.  They’ve gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming as dogs to Florida on a neutral. 

Rhode Island is clearly a rebuilding team.  Dan Hurley bolted for greener pastures in the offseason, and it’s no surprise he left when he did because the Rams lost a ton of talent.  They only have one returning starter, and lose five players who combined to average 53.6 points per game last year.  That’s a lot of production gone.  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team that went 26-8. 

The early struggles during a 4-3 start for the Rams are not surprising.  Their four wins have come against Bryant, Harvard (by 2), Brown and Holy Cross with three of those at home.  They lost by 11 at Charleston as 2.5-point dogs, were upset at home by Stony Brook by 10 despite being 10.5-point favorites, and lost by 9 at Providence as 7-point dogs.  So they’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and yet at just 4-3. 

West Virginia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons.  The Mountaineers are once again a tremendous rebounding team, which is the one thing the Rams do well.  Rhode Island has terrible guard play as they are shooting just 39.9% from the field and 20.3% from 3-point range on the season.  That’s not going to cut it in today’s college basketball.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with West Virginia Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12 

The love for the Indiana Pacers is starting to get out of hand here Sunday.  They are 12-point favorites over the New York Knicks.  Well, the Pacers have only been favored by more than 8 points once all season.  That was as 11.5-point home favorites over the Hawks, and the Pacers failed to cover in an 8-point win. 

The reason the Pacers are getting so much love right now is because they have won six in a row coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bucks and 76ers as well.  If anything, that sets them up for a letdown spot here as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Knicks.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers today. 

Conversely, it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks.  They have gone just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they had a nice 126-124 (OT) road win over the Hornets last time out where they showed a ton of heart in coming back from a big deficit.  And the Knicks certainly want revenge from a 101-107 home loss to the Pacers in their first and only meeting this season.  I like them quite a bit here catching 12 points on the road in the rematch. 

Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same season loss, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  New York will put up more of a fight than this line suggests tonight.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals +10 

The Atlanta Falcons are just not in a good state of mind right now.  And with their poor mental state, they have no business laying 10 points this week, not even against a team that’s considered to be one of the worst in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.  Let’s dive a little deeper into Atlanta’s state of mind. 

This is a Falcons team that went to the Super Bowl two years ago and lost to the Patriots in excruciating fashion.  Then last year they earned their way back to the playoffs and even beat the Rams on the road before a tough loss to the Eagles.  So this is a team used to playing in big games the past two seasons. 

But here they sit at 4-9 on the season and with nothing to play for.  It has been a challenge for them to find reasons to be motivated every week, and they just haven’t been.  They got back to 4-4 on the season with back-to-back wins over the Giants and Redskins, but have completely fallen apart since. 

Indeed, the Falcons are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of those five losses came by double-digits, and the five losses have come by an average of 10.6 points per game.  That’s the sign of a team that has quit, and at the very least one that is just going through the motions.  How can they possibly be motivated to face this 3-10 Arizona team this week? 

The Falcons have an atrocious defense that is giving up 28.2 points and 387.1 yards per game on the season.  They have been even worse at home, giving up 28.7 points and 430.6 yards per game in their seven home games thus far.  They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season, and 3-10 ATS overall. 

The Cardinals have a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback in Josh Rosen, who is making strides every week.  They are exactly the type of team that even at 3-10 will show up every week.  They certainly showed up two weeks ago in their last road game, a shocking 20-17 upset win at Green Bay as 13.5-point underdogs.  That’s the same Packers team that just beat the Falcons 34-20 at home last week. 

I think the Cardinals are being undervalued off their 3-17 home loss to the Lions last week.  But that was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  The Lions only had one offensive touchdown and managed just 218 total yards against this very solid Arizona defense.  The Cardinals outgained them by 61 yards, yet lost by 14. 

Rosen should get some help this week from running back David Johnson, who should have plenty of success against this Atlanta defense.  The Falcons rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 131.2 rushing yards per game, and they are even worse ranking 29th in yards per carry (5.0) allowed.  Opposing quarterbacks are also completing 71.3% of their passes inside the Georgia Dome this season.  Rosen is in line for one of his best games of the season. 

Plays on road teams (Arizona) - after failing to cover three of their last four games coming in, in December games are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven against NFC opponents.  The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Redskins +7 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are just 4-9 this season.  They can’t be laying a touchdown to the Washington Redskins, or any team for that matter.  Not after what I saw last week against the Titans.  They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and he rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-9 win by Tennessee. 

I can say with confidence that the Jaguars have quit.  This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year with big expectations coming into the season.  Now, at 4-9 and with nothing to play for, they have simply packed it in.  I don’t see them showing up this week at all, and even if they did they aren’t good enough to cover this 7-point spread. 

Unlike the Jaguars, the Redskins still have a lot to play for.  The Vikings are currently the 6th and final wild card team in the playoffs if the season were to end today at 6-6-1.  Well, the Redskins are 6-7, so they are only a half-game back in the wild card.  As ugly as it’s been of late for the Redskins, they can still look to the standings and realize they have a legit chance of making the playoffs.  And I fully expect them to show up these final three weeks. 

I also think the Redskins are being undervalued this week off their 40-16 loss to the Giants last week.  Well, Mark Sanchez is maybe the worst backup QB in the NFL, and he simply gift-wrapped the Giants several points.  The Redskins trailed that game 40-0 before giving way to Josh Johnson. 

Sure, the Giants probably didn’t try too hard after being up 40-0, but either way I was impressed with what I saw from Johnson.  He outscored the Giants 16-0 the rest of the way after he entered the game.  Johnson finished 11-of-16 passing for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also leading the team with 45 rushing yards and a score on only seven carries.  He averaged 12.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 rushing yards per attempt.  Those are elite numbers. 

Well, Johnson will get the start this week as Jay Gruden was impressed enough with what he saw to give him the nod.  And I think the Redskins as a team realize they had no chance of winning games with Sanchez at the held, so the fact that Johnson is starting has re-energized them.  They played hard for him to close out that Giants game, and they’ll play hard for him again this week against a Jaguars team that has quit.  I’ll gladly take the points on the more motivated team here. 

The Redskins get some good news in the injury department this week, too.  Their top playmaker in Jamison Crowder is back healthy and had 87 receiving yards and a score last week.  Josh Doctson had 84 receiving yards last week and should be available this week.  Both starting tackles along the offensive line in Trent Williams and Morgan Moses are both healthy and probable.  That will certainly help Johnson having his two starting tackles protecting him. 

Look for the Redskins to run wild on the Jaguars behind Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson.  The Jaguars did not want to tackle Henry last week, and they certainly don’t want to try and tackle Peterson, either.  This is a Jaguars defense that has really fallen off this season, especially down the stretch.  They have allowed 24 or more points in four of their last six games overall. 

It’s also a Jaguars offense that has really struggled and one that is going through a quarterback controversy with Blake Bortles getting benched in favor of Cody Kessler.  Kessler has led the Jaguars to an average of just 7.5 points per game in his two starts over the past two weeks.  The Jaguars have yet to decide who will be under center, but it won’t matter.  This offense is simply not good enough to be laying 7 points to anyone, especially not against a Redskins defense that has been respectable this season in allowing 22.8 points per game.  The Jaguars average just 16.3 points per game on the season. 

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The Redskins are coming back to win by 6.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Jacksonville is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after being outrushed by 100 or more yards in its previous game.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Jaguars are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on on San Francisco 49ers +7 

I won with the 49ers in their upset win over the Broncos last week, and I’m back on them again this week.  I got an early +7 at -130 on them when the line was +6 mostly everywhere.  I thought it was worth it to pay the extra juice for the +7 at that point.  But now the line has dropped all the way down to Seattle -3.5 in most places, and I still recommend a play on the 49ers at +3 or better.  Obviously bet more if you got +6 or better early, and bet less if you got +3 or +3.5 late. 

This has been the biggest line move in the NFL this week, and it’s warranted.  The 49ers never should have been close to a TD underdog to the Seahawks.  In fact, I think they win this game outright.  The Seahawks are working on a short week after their huge win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football.  They will be less prepared and less rested than the 49ers will be. 

That win over the Vikings basically locked the Seahawks into the No. 5 seed in the NFC.  They now have a 99% chance of making the playoffs.  They can’t win the division, either, as the Rams clinched that already with their two head-to-head wins over the Seahawks.  So Seattle is just stuck in no-man’s land here just playing out the string and anticipating their trip to the playoffs.  The hard work is done.  And they certainly could be looking ahead to their huge showdown with the Chiefs next week.

The Seahawks are overvalued after winning four straight games coming in and going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  But many of those were misleading wins, or wins they had no business getting.  In fact, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last six games overall.  That’s not the sign of a good team.  The only game they won the yardage battle was their 27-24 comeback win over the Packers at home in which they only outgained Green Bay by 19 yards. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers are grossly undervalued due to their 3-10 record.  They are much better than that as they have now outgained their opponents by 296 yards on the season, and by an average of 23 yards per game.  And they are playing their best football of the season coming in.  The 49ers have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 426 yards and by an average of 85.2 yards per game. 

Nick Mullens has more passing yards (746) than any other quarterback in the NFL over the last two weeks, so he is really starting to grasp Kyle Shanahan’s offense.  George Kittle had 210 receiving yards last week and ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards (1,103) by a tight end this season.  And Mullens is getting help with some players who are returning from injury.  RB Matt Breida should be back this week, and WR Marquise Goodwin returned last week after missing two games. 

I love backing teams in division games in the 2nd meeting who just recently lost their first meeting.  The Seahawks just beat the 49ers 43-16 two weeks ago in Seattle.  Well, that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year.  The 49ers gained 452 yards and held the Seahawks to 331 yards, outgaining them by 121 yards for the game.  And the Seahawks got a 98-yard INT return TD in the final minutes that turned what would have been a 13-point game into a 27-point game.  That misleading final score also has the Seahawks overvalued, and you know the 49ers are going to want to exact some revenge here at home. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team that wins 25% or fewer of their games on the season playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 (69.1%) ATS since 1983.  Don’t be surprised if the 49ers win this game outright again this week.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Giants -2.5 

The New York Giants played the toughest schedule in the NFL over their first eight games of the season.  It’s no surprise they opened 1-7.  But the schedule has eased up, and they’ve been handling their business since.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and they are playing with a ton of confidence right now and showing up every week.  If not for a blown 19-3 lead against the Eagles, they would be on a five-game winning streak. 

The biggest reason for their great play is the improvement on offense. The Giants have averaged 31.4 points per game in their last five games.  They hung 40 points on the Redskins last week even without Odell Beckham Jr.  And Beckham feels a lot better this week and there’s a good chance he returns to the lineup.  And besides Beckham and Landon Collins, the Giants are a very healthy team right now.  Eli Manning knows that these could be his last games as a Giant, and he’s clearly motivated to make the most of it despite their record. 

I think the Titans come in overvalued off their win over the Jaguars last week.  I’ve watched many NFL games, and I haven’t seen many teams quit as blatantly obviously as the Jaguars did.  They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and as a result Henry had a career game with 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns.  Defenders simply got out of his way or half-ass attempted to tackle him.  I give the Titans zero credit for that win. 

The Titans have not been good on the road this season.  They are just 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in road games.  They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, averaging just 19.3 points per game on the season.  Their offense has been even worse on the road, scoring just 16.4 points per game an averaging only 306.9 yards per game.  I just don’t trust Marcus Mariota and this offense to score enough points here to win this game against the Giants. 

Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Titans are losing by a whopping 20.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Titans are 1-10 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. 

Plays on home favorites (NY Giants) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -2.5 

The Bills really should be in the midst of a four-game winning streak right now.  But since they’re not and actually failed to cover the closing line each of the last two weeks, I think they are undervalued now.  Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a misleading 17-3 win at Arizona last week, and they’ve overvalued. 

Two weeks ago, the Bills outgained the Dolphins by 240 yards and lost 17-21 as 3.5-point dogs.  Then last week, the Bills outgained the Jets by 120 yards and lost 23-27 as 4.5-point home favorites.  They led that Jets game 14-3 and never trailed until the final minute.  It’s two games they should have won but they didn’t, and they won their previous two games against the the Jets and Jaguars by a combined 34 points.  In fact, the Bills have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 680 yards, or by an average of 136 yards per game.  That’s the sign of an elite team. 

The Bills have been playing much better football ever since Josh Allen returned to the lineup.  Allen has actually rushed for 99 or more yards in three consecutive games, which is unheard of in today’s NFL.  And if his receivers quit dropping passes, he’d be putting up even better numbers through the air.  After his receivers let him down last week, I think they’ll be extra focused to make amends for their quarterback this week. 

Buffalo has an elite defense, which is my favorite thing about this team.  They actually rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 290.6 yards per game.  Not too many people saw that coming heading into the season.  There’s nothing fluky about it because they are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed.  They will shut down the Lions this week. 

Detroit is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  And really the Lions are fortunate to even have two wins during this stretch.  They have been outgained in six of their last seven games, and eight of their last 10 games overall.  That’s the sign of a bad team. 

Matthew Stafford looks lost ever since trading Golden Tate and having Marvin Jones go down to injury.  There just aren’t any playmakers left on this team.  The score showed Detroit winning 17-3 against Arizona last week, but they were outgained by the Cardinals and managed just 218 total yards.  The Lions managed only 96 passing yards on 23 attempts.  This offense has been dreadful, and it won’t get any easier against the Bills this week. 

Detroit is a dome team that certainly won’t enjoy the cold weather this late in the year in Buffalo.  The Lions don’t have anything to play for, and I trust this young Bills team with a rookie quarterback to keep showing up because they have showed up every week that Allen has been under center.  They’re the better team, and they’re only laying 2.5 points here at home.  Sign me up. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 6 points or less are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double-digit road win.  The Bills are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  Detroit is 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts -2.5 

I was on the Colts last week in their outright win over the Texans, and I’m right back on them this week as my strongest release of the entire 2018 NFL season.  They have made my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR label for this game against the Dallas Cowboys.  Every factor in this game favors the Colts, and thus getting them as only 2.5-point home favorites is an absolute gift from oddsmakers and the biggest line mistake of the season. 

It mostly comes down to the motivational mismatch in favor of the Colts.  They need this game like they need blood.  There are currently four teams in the AFC tied at 7-6 for the final wild card spot, and the Colts have an outside shot to win the division.  The Colts have put themselves in this position by going 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall, and they aren’t about to let up now that they are so close they can taste the postseason. 

The Cowboys are coming off their ’Super Bowl’, a gutsy 29-23 (OT) home win over the Philadelphia Eagles that all but locked up the division.  After that win, the Cowboys currently have a 99% chance of winning the division.  They would have to go 0-3 and have either the Redskins go 3-0 or the Eagles go 3-0 to not win the division.  Well, the Eagles are double-digit underdogs at the Rams this week and just lost Carson Wentz, and the Redskins are mess with all their injuries and are 7-point road dogs to the Jaguars.  In all reality, the Cowboys have already won the division.  They will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that win over the Eagles. 

The Colts have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents.  That’s the sign of a really good team and one I want to get my money behind.  Andrew Luck is back to being Andrew Luck, and the Colts have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  All of that young talent they’ve drafted over the past several seasons is finally starting to pay off.  They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 15.3 points per game. 

And I really like the matchup for the Colts’ defense.  Their strength is their run defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL in giving up just 102.9 rushing yards per game.  They also rank 5th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.8) allowed.  And they’ve been even better in recent weeks, holding their last five opponents to just 91.8 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  They should be able to limit Zeke Elliott, who was hobbled in that win over the Eagles and could have his workload limited after touching the ball 40 times last week.

One hidden advantage here is Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich, the former offensive coordinator in Philadelphia.  The Eagles clearly miss him as their offense has been atrocious this year and terrible on 3rd downs, whereas the Colts are one of the best 3rd down offenses in the NFL.  But Reich knows the personnel in the NFC East, and he’s actually gone 2-0 ATS against NFC East teams this season, beating the Redskins outright and covering in a last-second loss to the Eagles.  And he certainly knows Dallas’ personnel as well as it hasn’t changed much from last year.  He’ll come up with a game plan to beat their defense, while also helping his defensive coaches with the Cowboys’ offense.

I think the Cowboys are starting to be overvalued now this week after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  I just don’t think they show up at all this week.  The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record.  Plays on home favorites (Indianapolis) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Colts Sunday.