Brian Bitler Sports Picks & Predictions

Houston at Colorado — Friday night in Boulder

Houston is the better team on paper (7-2, ranked), but Colorado +9.5 looks like the better bet. It’s a Friday night at Folsom Field, where the altitude and crowd can make games closer than the records suggest. The Buffs have already shown they can hang around at home, and they still have bowl hopes on the line.

The line has moved in Colorado’s favor (from around -10.5 to -9.5), and Houston’s defense isn’t dominant enough to justify laying nearly double digits on the road. Houston should win, but Colorado covering feels like where I want to be on Friday Night with the world on the other side.

Play on Colorado plus the points rotation #124

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Maryland plus the points at home against Virginia tonight is worth a nice play. Virginia is undefeated and ranked, so they’re the rightful favorite, but this is their first real road test of the year and the number sits in that 5–6 range where home dogs often hang around. Maryland is playing in front of their own crowd at the XFINITY Center, and early numbers show them rebounding well enough to keep possessions competitive.

A couple of the projections I’ve seen have this as a Virginia win in the high 70s to low 70s, which puts the cover right on the edge. You’re not asking the Terrapins to pull the upset, just stay within a possession or two in a hostile environment for the Cavaliers.

Play on Maryland plus the points rotation #870

Both teams are 3-0, but the Blue Demons have been the more consistent scoring outfit early, averaging right around 80 points with solid rebounding. This is a local Chicago-area matchup at Welsh-Ryan, and while Northwestern gets the home court, the market has DePaul as the favorite for a reason.

A couple of the projections I’ve seen have this as a one-possession game in the high 60s or low 70s, which means covering a point-and-a-half isn’t a tall ask if DePaul plays to its early form. They’ve won nine of their last 10 non-conference games heading into this one. At a number this small, I’m comfortable taking DePaul to get it done.

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Pelicans plus the points at home against the Grizzlies tonight is a spot I love.

Memphis is the better record and the favorite on the road, but the number has already come down from the open (was closer to -5). The Grizzlies have been solid on the road, yet New Orleans is at the Smoothie King Center in a division game, and these Southwest matchups have been tight lately. One of the recent meetings between them went to the wire with the Pelicans winning by a point.

Zion and the core should be available enough to keep this competitive, even with some of the supporting guys questionable. numberFire actually has New Orleans favored straight up, which tells you the market might be a little soft on the home dog.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points rotation #566

Georgia at North Carolina tonight is a great underdog spot.

UNC is the home favorite at the Dean Dome (around -4 or -4.5), and both teams are 3-0, but the number has already come in a bit from the open. Early-season non-conference games like this can be closer than the name brands suggest, and Georgia has been scoring efficiently (around 83 a game) while getting contributions from guys like Blue Cain.

A couple of the sharper projections I’ve seen have this as a one-possession type game or even a tight UNC win in the low 80s. Georgia’s an SEC team that can score and isn’t walking into a full-strength Carolina squad that has already peaked.

Play on the Georgia Bulldogs plus the points rotation #855

Florida State plus the points tonight at Pitt is my best play.

Pitt’s the home favorite with a nasty run defense, and FSU’s banged up. But the number’s only 3.5, and the Noles just showed real life under Rick Stockstill—winning at BC and ending a long road skid. They’re playing with urgency for a bowl, and Ashton Daniels gives them enough dual-threat juice to hang around even if the ground game struggles.

Play on FSU plus the points rotation #119