Brooke Bennett Sports Picks & Daily Packages

Arkansas State/Coastal Carolina: BENNETT EDGE ON over 52½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to two ugly Week 11 scoreboards by taking the over between a pair of defenses that both rank 100th or worse in SP+.

Statistical Edges:

• SP+ Defense: Arkansas State ranks 103rd nationally with a 31.3 defensive rating, and Coastal Carolina sits 100th at 31.

Neither unit profiles as capable of producing the stops this number requires.

• Scoring Environment: Arkansas State games are averaging 53.8 combined points this season (27.44 scored, 26.33 allowed), already clearing this line.

Over their last five that figure climbs to 58 combined (29.4 scored, 28.6 allowed).

• Game Tape: When Arkansas State's defense faces a functional offense, the scoreboard spins.

They lost 56-49 to South Alabama on October 8 and beat Georgia State 38-32 on October 24.

Both results cleared this total comfortably.

• Offense vs.

Defense Mismatch: Arkansas State's 83rd-ranked SP+ offense (24.7 rating) draws Coastal's 100th-ranked defense, the softer side of either cross-matchup on the board.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by recency bias.

Coastal Carolina just lost 21-8 to Old Dominion and Arkansas State dropped a 19-17 game to UL Monroe, so the two most recent box scores both read as unders, and those are the games bettors can recall without effort.

My framework discounts one week of scoring variance against the full-season baseline, and that baseline says Arkansas State's games have averaged nearly 54 combined points across nine games while both defenses grade out in the bottom third of the country.

The price is paying for last Saturday's memory, not for what these two defenses have allowed all year.

EDGE ON: Over 52.5 (-115)

I like the Over

Syracuse/NC State: BENNETT EDGE ON over 54

Our Edge: We are exploiting a recency-driven mispricing by taking the over, as the market has anchored this total to two low-scoring November results while both season-long scoring baselines and the SP+ defensive profiles point north of 54.

Statistical Edges:
• Combined Scoring Baseline: Syracuse's nine games this season have averaged 54.8 combined points (29.33 scored, 25.44 allowed).

NC State's have averaged 56.4 (28.89 scored, 27.56 allowed).

Both baselines clear this number on their own.
• SP+ Defense: NC State's defense ranks 99th nationally at a 30.8 rating, and Syracuse's ranks 81st at 27.7.

Neither unit profiles as capable of the sustained stops an under at 54 requires.
• SP+ Offense vs.

Defense Mismatch: NC State's offense ranks 60th (28.3 rating) and draws Syracuse's 81st-ranked defense.

That is the best unit on the field matched against a bottom-half defense, which is exactly where scoring skews upward.
• Prior Output: Syracuse posted 31 at North Carolina on October 24 and 30 against SMU on October 31, back-to-back games that produced 61 and 57 combined points.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by an availability heuristic.

The two most recallable results here are NC State's 41-3 home loss to Duke and Syracuse's 13-point output in an 18-13 loss to Clemson last week.

The ease of recalling those images crowds out the base rate.

Our framework discounts the last-five scoring dip (25 and 21.4 points per game for Syracuse and NC State respectively) as short-term variance against the nine-game baselines, and it weighs the actual matchup: Clemson's defense is not walking through the door on Saturday.

A 99th-ranked SP+ defense is.

When the schedule-adjusted inputs say both teams allow points at pace and the price is set to last week's tape, that gap is the value.

EDGE ON: Over 54 (-108)

I like the Over

James Madison/Connecticut: BENNETT EDGE ON under 57½

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to James Madison's 54-point outburst at Southern Miss, a recency artifact that obscures a Dukes defense allowing 19.3 points per game across a full season of work.

Statistical Edges:

• Points Against: James Madison has held opponents to 19.3 points per game through 10 games this season, the quiet backbone of an 8-2 record that the market keeps crediting to the offense alone.

• SP+ Defense: The Dukes rank No. 30 nationally in SP+ defense at a 19.9 rating, part of a No. 26 overall profile (13.8).

That unit travels, and it sets the ceiling on Connecticut's half of this total.

• Recent Totals: JMU's last home game against Troy settled at 45 combined points, a 24-21 loss on October 29.

Their October 11 trip to Georgia Southern closed at 51 in a 27-24 win.

Two of their last five games finished a touchdown or more below this number.

• 2025 Baseline: Connecticut averaged 33.6 points for and 26 against across eight games last season.

Our framework regresses that scoring figure against a meaningful step up in defensive quality on the other sideline.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by the availability heuristic.

James Madison hung 54 on Southern Miss on November 6, the single most recallable result on either schedule, and the ease of recalling a 77-point combined game crowds out the base rate.

Bayesian updating says one offensive outlier should barely move the posterior when the season-long inputs read 19.3 points allowed and a top-30 SP+ defense.

The number is priced off the highlight, not the baseline, and that gap is the bet.

EDGE ON: Under 57.5 (-112)

I like the Under

East Carolina/Charlotte: BENNETT EDGE ON over 45½

BENNETT EDGE ON Over 45.5 -105

Our Edge: We are exploiting a total anchored to East Carolina's recent low-scoring tape, a narrative that collapses the moment the Pirates line up against the worst defense either team has seen all season.

Statistical Edges:

• SP+ Defense: Charlotte ranks 138th nationally with a 42 defensive rating.

The 49ers are allowing 38.33 points per game across nine games this season, and that number has gotten worse, 40.2 allowed over the last five.

• Game Totals: Four of Charlotte's last five games cleared this number comfortably: 69 combined against Tulane, 69 at Temple, 60 at North Texas, 67 against Memphis.

The lone miss was a 35-point game at UAB.

• Scoring Floor: Charlotte is not a shutout risk.

The 49ers are averaging 19.8 points per game over their last five, including 31 on Tulane and 38 at Temple.

Pair that with East Carolina's 23.56 points per game and the raw cross-match projects a total north of 52.

• Matchup Reset: East Carolina's 106th-ranked SP+ offense (21.4 rating) looks sluggish on paper, but it hung 34 at Memphis in October.

Against the 138th-ranked unit in the country, my framework updates that scoring baseline sharply upward.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by recency bias.

East Carolina's last two finals, 20-17 over South Florida and 17-9 over Temple, are the most available data points, and the total is priced as if that tape travels.

It does not.

Those scores came against functional defenses.

Charlotte's games are averaging roughly 58 combined points this season (19.67 scored, 38.33 allowed), and the opponent-quality adjustment the market is skipping is exactly where the value sits.

We are paying -105 for a number the home team's own schedule has cleared four times in five tries.

EDGE ON: Over 45.5 (-105)

I like the Over

Jets/Blackhawks: TOP BENNETT EDGE ON over 6

Our Edge: The market is anchored to Chicago's low-scoring identity, and that anchor is suppressing a total that both of these defenses are built to clear.

Statistical Edges:

• Goals Against Average: Chicago has allowed 4.2 goals per game over its last 10 this season and 5 per game over its last five, a stretch that includes a 9-2 loss in Carolina on Nov 7.

• Expected Goals Share: The Blackhawks sit at a 0.42 xG% through 19 games, dropping to 0.40 at even strength.

Blackhawks goaltender Spencer Knight is defending behind a unit that concedes the run of play nearly every night.

• Special Teams xG%: Winnipeg's power play owns a 0.93 xG% with 13.54 expected goals for across 20 games.

Chicago's penalty kill registers a 0.12 xG%.

That is a one-way mismatch with man-advantage goals attached.

• Goals For Average: The Jets are scoring 5.4 goals per game across their last five, capped by an 8-3 win in Dallas on Nov 12.

They are also allowing 3.9 per game over their last 10, with top-four defenseman Dylan DeMelo on injured reserve and Jets goalie Stuart Skinner expected in net.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by anchoring.

Bettors see Chicago's 42 goals in 19 games and price this as a game Winnipeg must carry alone, which holds the number at 6 instead of letting it drift higher.

Our framework reads totals as the sum of defensive failures, and both failure paths are live here.

Chicago cannot defend at even strength or on the kill, and Winnipeg's blue line without DeMelo leaks enough to hand a struggling offense its scoring window.

When one side is surrendering five a night and the other is conceding nearly four behind a thinned top four, the two-sided goal environment supports seven.

The anchor is paying us to take it.

EDGE ON: Over 6 (-120)

I like the Over

BENNETT EDGE ON Colorado State -8½ -110

Our Edge: We are exploiting an availability heuristic in this number: the market is still pricing Loyola-Chicago off the program's mid-major brand, while Colorado State's efficiency profile points to a comfortable multi-possession home win.

Statistical Edges:

• Adjusted Offense: Colorado State carries a 112.96 adjusted offensive rating per BartTorvik.

This early in the season those ratings lean on prior-year inputs, so treat the figure as a projection, but it is a projection that forecasts the Rams scoring well above a point per possession against an opponent with no verified efficiency counter.

• Barthag Power Rating: Colorado State sits at 0.7470, a mark that projects the Rams to beat a median Division I opponent roughly three times out of four on a neutral floor.

Layer home court on top of that baseline and the implied margin clears this spread.

• Adjusted Tempo: at 68.97 possessions, Colorado State controls the terms of the game.

A deliberate pace paired with that offensive rating means the Rams dictate possession quality rather than trading rushed shots, which is the formula that grinds an overmatched visitor down by double digits.

• Injury Report: zero reported injuries for Colorado State.

The full rotation is available, so nothing in the efficiency profile above gets discounted for missing pieces.

Psychological Edges: This line is a textbook availability heuristic trade.

Loyola-Chicago's national brand, built on memorable tournament runs, is easy to recall, and that ease of recall is standing in for actual quality in the market's pricing.

The Ramblers enter this matchup without an established efficiency baseline this season, which means the market is filling the blank with reputation instead of production.

Our framework discounts the name and weights the measurable gap: a healthy home favorite with a 112.96 offense against an opponent priced on memory.

When the story is the only thing holding a line down, we take the side the numbers support.

EDGE ON: COLORADO STATE -8.5 (-110)

I like Colorado State

TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Central Florida -3½ +100

Our Edge: We are exploiting a home-road split the market has flattened into a single record.

Arizona State's 3-2 run over its last five is built entirely on home wins, and the even-money price on Central Florida minus 3.5 is anchored to that surface narrative.

Statistical Edges:

• Road Scoring Margin: Arizona State is 0-2 in its last two road games, outscored 80-45, losing 53-25 at Texas Tech on October 17 and 27-20 at BYU on October 31.

• SP+ Overall: Arizona State ranks 65th nationally at a 1.9 rating, with an offense ranked 77th (25.7).

A 65th-ranked team asking for less than a field goal of respect on the road is a thin premium.

• Season Point Differential: Arizona State averages 28.44 points scored against 27.33 allowed across nine games, a margin of roughly one point per game for a 5-4 team.

That is a coin-flip profile, not a road team worth a near pick'em number.

• Last-Five Splits: Over the last five, the Sun Devils' scoring averages slipped to 24.6 for and 23.8 against, and all three wins came at home: Colorado 20-10, Kansas State 28-17, Hawai'i 30-12.

Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by the availability heuristic.

The most recallable Arizona State data point is last week's 20-10 home win over Colorado, and the ease of recalling that result crowds out the base rate.

This team's most recent road tape is a 28-point loss at Texas Tech and a one-score loss at BYU.

My framework discounts the home-built three-win sample against the full-season baseline, where a one-point scoring margin and a 77th-ranked SP+ offense do not justify laying this short a number away from home.

Central Florida at home, minus 3.5 at plus money, is the side where the quantitative floor clears the implied price.

EDGE ON: CENTRAL FLORIDA -3.5 (+100)

I like Central Florida