Joe Duffy – Sports Betting Advice & Picks

Good to Houston -16 at -110 or better. Pass at -16.5.

Utah is without Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic. Those three absences take away frontcourt scoring, rim protection and defensive rebounding in a matchup where Houston can run its offense through Alperen Sengun. He had 19 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists against Golden State on Wednesday. If Utah sends help, Sengun can find cutters or move the ball to Kevin Durant. If the Jazz defend him straight up, their remaining bigs have to handle him in the post and finish possessions on the glass. At the other end, Utah has to generate enough half-court offense without Markkanen to stay inside a large number. Houston is also short on reserve size with Steven Adams and Clint Capela out, and Marcus Smart's suspension costs the Rockets a perimeter defender. Those absences matter most when Houston goes to its bench and are a reason to hold the line at -16.

Houston has scored 118.5 points per 100 possessions and allowed 109.3, while Utah has scored 103.8 and allowed 115.4. That is a 20.8-point net-rating gap per 100 possessions before accounting for schedule and tonight's rotations. The early Luck Ratings temper the case for laying a big number. Houston is at +1.2 and Utah is at -2.6, so the 9-3 and 1-11 records likely exaggerate the gap in underlying performance. The stronger evidence is how Utah's available frontcourt matches up with Sengun and how few proven scoring options the Jazz have around it. The current board offers Houston -15.5 after listing -17.5 in its opening column. Getting two points back on a double-digit favorite is meaningful here, especially given the risk of a late Utah cover against Houston's reserves.

Good to Arkansas-Pine Bluff +15.5 at -110 or better.

California Baptist opened -10 worldwide, and the current board offers Pine Bluff +16.5 at -110. KenPom makes California Baptist a six-point favorite, while EvanMiya projects the Lancers by 12.2. That gives us a two-model fair range of California Baptist -6 to -12, with more than four points of cushion against the higher projection. Pine Bluff also fits a league-wide system backing double-digit underdogs against opponents with a modest season scoring margin that drew at least 15 fouls in their previous game, with additional situational filters. The system is 1,711-1,360-23 ATS (55.7%, +6.4% ROI).

Pine Bluff's first three games came against Arkansas, Baylor and UCLA. The Golden Lions scored only 37 at UCLA, but that schedule matters when judging what their offense can do against California Baptist. The Lancers just gave up 81 at home to Chicago State and are still looking for their first win under Kyle Getter. Macaleab Rich and Jalen Tatum are both averaging double figures for Pine Bluff, giving the Golden Lions two scoring options against a defense that has yet to show it can separate from this level of opponent. The 6.5-point move asks California Baptist to win by 17 after the worldwide opener asked it to win by 11.

Good to Louisiana-Monroe +30.5 at -110 or better.

Arizona State opened -27.5 worldwide and is now -31.5 on the current sportsbook board. KenPom projects Arizona State by 22 and EvanMiya by 25.1, putting the two-model fair range at Arizona State -22 to -25. The current number gives us 6.4 points even against the projection that is more favorable to Arizona State. Louisiana-Monroe also fits a league-wide system backing underdogs of 11 or more that blocked at least six shots in their previous game and face an opponent with 15 or fewer wins. Those teams have gone 810-601-15 ATS (57.4%, +9.6% ROI). A separate 673-485-15 ATS system supports Arizona State, which keeps this at a Major. The four-point move from the worldwide opener and the agreement between the two projections carry the decision.

Louisiana-Monroe took TCU to double overtime on the road. Dayjaun Anderson had 20 points and 13 rebounds, and Lance Carr added 13 points and 14 boards. Their work on the glass matters against an Arizona State team that just outrebounded Hofstra 49-25. If the Warhawks can hold their own on the defensive glass, they can limit the second-chance possessions Arizona State used to extend that lead. The two extra periods at TCU add a fatigue consideration, so the extra points above the opener matter here.

Good to Illinois +10 at -110 or better. Pass at +9.5.

Illinois opened +9.5 worldwide, and the extra half-point buys protectio against a 10-point UCLA win. The Illini qualify for a historical system backing rested road teams that held their previous opponent below 19 points and now face a team coming off a game with fewer than 23 first downs. With the system's other filters applied, those teams have gone 1,306-1,082-41 ATS (54.7%, +4.4% ROI).

UCLA has injuries along the offensive line and at receiver, and the Luck Factor favors Illinois modestly at +0.8 versus UCLA's +1.7. One independent projection makes UCLA an 8.7-point favorite, while another makes it 14.7. UCLA's ground game is the biggest matchup concern for Illinois, so getting the full 10 matters.

Good to Florida State +3.5 at -110 or better. Pass at +3.

Florida State fits a revenge system that backs underdogs of six points or fewer that lost to the same opponent as a favorite in the first seven games of the previous season. Those teams have gone 269-163-14 ATS (62.3%, +18.9% ROI). A broader system backing road underdogs against winning home favorites laying fewer than five points is 1,097-910-46 ATS (54.7%, +4.3% ROI). The revenge angle carries the most weight. Florida State opened +3.5 worldwide and is still available at that number, which cashes if Pittsburgh wins by a field goal.

Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Heintschel is out, and Holden Geriner is questionable. The Panthers are also missing receivers Tyreek Robinson and Rodney Dunbar. Florida State gets linebackers Caleb LaVallee and Blake Nichelson and defensive back K.J. Kirkland back, giving the Seminoles more options against an offense with uncertainty at quarterback. The Luck Ratings lean slightly toward Florida State at -0.7 versus Pittsburgh's -0.3. Pittsburgh's defense allows 19.8 points per game, and Florida State is still missing receiver Duce Robinson and several defensive backs. Independent projections also disagree, with one making Pittsburgh a 0.6-point favorite and another making it a 7.2-point favorite. Those differences keep the play at 3*.