Joey Tron

I am laying the points with the Dream here at home against the Valkyires. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right? That’s what Atlanta has to be thinking with a 2-1 series lead after winning back-to-back, before losing Game 1. Since that loss, Atlanta has scored Golden State 176-136, and have outscored them by 36 the entire series thus far. Atlanta has found great success around the perimeter against GSV hitting 40% from 3PT and 49% from the field in Game 3, and have done a great job at not playing sloppy, and averaging just 12 TO per game thus far. Golden State has not found their groove on offense and in fact, they’ve shot sub 40% from the field in all 3 games in the WNBA Finals and have been dreadful at the FT line, averaging a horrid 72%. The Valkyries thrive with low scoring games however the Dream have now shown in back-to-back games they can break that and play at their own pace. ATL is 16-8 ATS at home, following a home game and GSV is 10-13 ATS on the road, when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Lay it with the GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES here. –Joey Tron

I am laying the points with Louisiana here on the road against Southern Miss. The Ragin Cajuns rebounded nicely off a brutal 1pt loss to LA Tech and are a strong 4-1 in their L5 games. Southern Miss has lost every game since their season opener and the glaring issue has been the inconsistency week in and week out - the bigger issue is they won’t make it right against the Cajuns, especially with JMU losing to App State. Louisiana has the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt in terms of efficiency and have a strong secondary sitting Top 50 nationally in PYPG. Their offense is 26/27 on red zone trips with 20 TD’s sitting 5th nationally here and are up against a defense that is allowing 0.13 EPA/Rush while the Cajuns are amassing over 200 RYPG. Revenge is on the mind for Louisiana as they have not forgotten last years 22-10 loss at home to this Southern Miss team. UL is 8-2 ATS on the road, following a home win and USM is 2-9 ATS off a loss against a Conference foes. Lay the points with the LOUISIANA RAJIN CAJUNS here. –Joey Tron

I am taking the points with Wisconsin here at home against USC. This one of the biggest home games of Luke Fickell’s career at Wisconsin and I look for him to come up huge for us. USC has rebounded with b2b wins since falling to Oregon and enter this off their bye week, while Wisconsin is off a 10 pt road loss to UCLA, halting their 4 game winning streak. The Badgers are better than their record indicates, (Losses to UCLA/ND) and will give this Trojans offense plenty of issues moving the ball down field here. Wisconsin sits 16th in total yards allowed and will no doubt pressure Maiava into ugly situations and force a turnover or two. Not only that, but Wisconsin sits Top 12 in Adj EPA/Play and 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Trojan defense has been all over the place with 120 points allowed to Big Ten foes in just 4 games and will be in for more trouble at the line of scrimmage with Abu Sama III back to active duty for the Badgers. The USC defense sits 93rd in defensive efficiency and are conceding an alarming 0.21 EPA/Play which is one of the HIGHEST among Power 4 schools. WISC is 18-10 ATS as a home dog and USC is 10-17 (1-5 L6) ATS on the road, against Conference foes. Take the points with the WISCONSIN BADGERS here. –Joey Tron

I am taking the UNDER here between Tennessee and South Carolina. The Gamecocks are riding high into this one after taking down Florida last week and have another big challenge on deck. Outside of losing to Texas, the Vols have been flawless since allowing less than 14 PPG and have been winning games because of success on defense. Tennessee has a tough line of scrimmage that prevents teams from getting explosive plays and has done an excellent job at getting teams off the field, at 30% on 3rd down! The South Carolina defense has done much better at containing the line of scrimmage sitting 24th in RYPG and a +3 Turnover margin last game against one of the strongest offenses in the SEC. Expect plenty of big hits and sacks as Josh Heupel has not forgotten the beating from a few seasons ago. TENN is 40-27 to the under on the road following a game where they allowed 14 or less points and SCAR is 23-17 to the under at home, when the line is +3 to -3. Play the UNDER here between TENNESSEE/SOUTH CAROLINA. –Joey Tron

I am taking the points with the Syracuse Orange here on the road against UNC. This should be a much closer game than Cuse is getting credit for and will be sneaky here. Cuse comes into this off back to back losses, however lets not discredit them by any means. They are racking up yards at a crazy rate sitting 28th in YPG and are decent on 3rd downs, converting at a 42% rate. The UNC defense has struggled to get teams off the field and in fact, their wins against FBS foes come by an average of just 4.3 points, showing that their games are way closer than they are expected to be. The Orange will be without Malachi Nelson however their ground game has been strong and will test this UNC line of scrimmage who likely has their eyes on their date with Miami next week. SYR is 7-3 ATS on the road following 3 or more consecutive overs and UNC is 1-6 ATS at home, following a win. Take the points with the SYRACUSE ORANGE here. –Joey Tron