Kyle Hunter – Sports Handicapper

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd starts here against the Kansas City Royals. He shut them out last time against them, but this lineup has crushed him in his career overall. The Royals have a whopping .402 weighted on base average in 190 plate appearances against Boyd.

Boyd's numbers this year are far worse across the board than last year. He has given up a lot more hard hit batted balls. He is giving up home runs in bunches. That doesn't bode well for him here with the weather forecast of temperatures in the 80's and wind blowing out 15-20 mph. The ball will carry well in KC on Saturday.

Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals, and he hasn't pitched above Single A until this month. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his FIP is 7.03 so he has been very fortunate.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Free Pick* The Duke Blue Devils have played two games, while this is Virginia's first game of the season. That is worth quite a bit in my opinion. 

Virginia has a whole new look on offense this year without Bryce Perkins. Everything ran through him, and this Cavs offense is likely to be down quite a bit this year. They don't get to play a cupcake in their first game. They go up against a pretty solid Duke defense.

Duke has a great pass rush, and the Blue Devils should get in the backfield a lot in this game. If you just look at the final score of 26-6 from Boston College-Duke last weekend it is misleading. Duke had five turnovers in that game, and the box score outside of that looked pretty even.

David Cutcliffe's teams have been great as an underdog, and I think they have a chance of winning outright here. 

Take Duke and the points and put a little on the moneyline as well.

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*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. 

Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. 

TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary.

Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here.

In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern.

Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. 

Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. 

The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. 

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. 

Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. 

The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down.

Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Kentucky Wildcats are really strong in the trenches. They return a ton of depth and talent on both the offensive and defensive lines. Justin Rogers was a rare 5 star recruit on the defensive front for Kentucky too. He'll be a great addition to the defensive front. I'm most impressed by the depth in the trenches for Kentucky. They have the least turnover and best depth in the trenches of any team in the SEC East.

Auburn lost Brown and Davidson on the defensive line, and those are big hits. The Tigers still have good players on defense, but it will be hard to not dip at least some. On the other side of the ball, Auburn has 5 new offensive linemen, and this is a clear weakness for the Tigers. Kentucky should be able to take advantage of this. Auburn has good WR's, but the Kentucky secondary is loaded this season.

The Kentucky Wildcats will run the ball and look to shorten the clock. That makes a lot of their games lower scoring and tight games. Grabbing more than a touchdown with the much more experienced team that is stronger in the trenches is something I like to do whenever I can.

Auburn has dealt with a lot more COVID problems than Kentucky, and the Tigers have missed a lot of practices.

Take Kentucky plus the points here. I'll also put a small sprinkle on the moneyline. 

*4 Star Play Under* Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor.

Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%.

The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). 

With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. 

Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year.

South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury.

Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game. 

*3 Star Play on Liberty* The Liberty Flames found their quarterback. Malik Willis transferred over from Auburn, and Willis showed how special he can be in this offense in game one. 

Hugh Freeze wanted a dual threat quarterback, and he has one now. Willis is a great athlete. He ran a 4.6 40 in high school. He ran for a whopping 168 yards on just 21 carries against a good Western Kentucky defensive front last weekend. That was Willis' first game in this system, and it looks like this is a perfect fit for the spread attack. Liberty rolled up 487 yards against Western Kentucky, and they only punted twice in the game.

Florida International has a glaring weakness on their defense. They can't stop the run. FIU's defensive front will struggle against running attacks all year. FIU hasn't played a game yet, and now they go to take on a very complicated scheme that had 354 yards rushing last week.

FIU lost James Morgan from a year ago, and there are plenty of questions about this team coming into the season. Their special teams are also down a lot after losing their star kicker to Miami. 

Liberty is laying a reasonable number here at home against a foe that will play their first game on Saturday. FIU has missed a bunch of practices due to COVID as well. I think Liberty runs all over them here.

Take Liberty.