Kyle Hunter – Sports Handicapper

*3 Star Play Over* If you are looking for an over in Major League Baseball, you won't find a better umpire to have behind the home plate than Alfonso Marquez. Marquez is behind the dish for this game. 

The over went 25-8 in Marquez's games behind the plate in 2019. The over was 9-5 in his games last year. The over is 1-0 in his games this year. It isn't just that the games are going over though. Marquez has the lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the league in the last three seasons. 

Ian Anderson and Zach Eflin are both young pitchers with a lot of potential, but they face very good lineups here. I think both the Phillies and Braves are top eight offenses in the majors. The Braves haven't looked like it so far this year, but they will turn things around. 

Both Philly and Atlanta have very deep lineups. The guys at the bottom of the order are very capable of hurting you.

The Phillies bullpen is some better this year, but it is definitely still a relative weakness. The Braves bullpen is worse after they lost Greene and Melancon. 

The Braves offensive struggles out of the gate have this number set too low. Marquez being behind the plate is a nice bonus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mets start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has been dominant everywhere, but he has been especially amazing when pitching at home and in day games. How good has he been?

Degrom has an ERA of 1.94 in his last 40 starts at Citi Field. He has a WHIP of 0.889 or lower in each of his last three seasons at home. He has an ERA of 1.63 or lower in day games in all but three of his seasons in the majors. He has an ERA of 2.25 or lower in all but one year in the majors in day games.

He is at Citi Field here with cool conditions against a weak Marlins offense. I would expect a great showing from Degrom.

Trevor Rogers has very good stuff and he is a lefty with potential for the Marlins. The Mets have a lineup that should hit right handers better than lefties this year, as they did a year ago. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff. He gives up a lot of hard contact. He also puts a lot of baserunners on via the walk. 

The Giants had a very good offense at home last year, and I think they'll be solid again this year. Gonzalez is unlikely to be able to navigate through this lineup without trouble.

The Colorado Rockies have been a terrible offense away from home in recent seasons, and now their roster is much worse. I see no reason to expect this offense to be good away from Coors this year.

The Rockies also lack bullpen depth, and Gonzalez usually doesn't work deep into the game.

Logan Webb is a decent starter who should be able to slow down this Rockies lineup.

Take the Giants -1.5.