Kyle Hunter – Sports Picks & Daily Packages

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs defense is underrated, especially against the pass. SMU is 2nd in the nation in pass success rate allowed. They are 11th in yards per pass attempt allowed. SMU is 16th in havoc rate caused- so the pass rush is helping out the secondary a lot as well. Cal's passing attack has been a mess. The Cal offensive line is 121st in the nation in havoc rate allowed.

Cal has no running game. They are 135th in offensive line yards. They are 129th in YPC this season. SMU has been vulnerable against the run, but I don't think Cal can do it here.

The SMU offense is pass heavy, and the strength of the Cal defense is the secondary. Cal is 25th in pass play success rate allowed and 53rd in PPA/pass allowed. SMU is just 118th in offensive line yards and 114th in PPA/rush.

This total has been up quite a bit.

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears haven't allowed more than 19 points in a game all season. They are 2nd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. That is a big help here since Kansas is all about the run game. Kansas can't trust Marshall to throw it around too much so they are leaning on their offensive line. Baylor's defensive front is the best defensive line Kansas has faced this year.

Kansas has gotten much better on defense of late. The Jayhawks are 23rd in rushing play success rate allowed and 12th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Lagway and the Baylor offense have been poor overall this year. Baylor is 119th in red zone offense. The Bears are 127th in offensive success rate.

Kansas is 79th in points per scoring opportunity and Baylor is 5th in points per scoring opportunity allowed.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans offense had one huge game that is skewing the stats from the rest of the season. Troy torched the hapless Southern Miss defense, but for much of the season Troy has been poor on offense.

Another huge key here is the health of Troy star quarterback Goose Crowder. Crowder was injured last game and backup Tucker Kilcrease had to finish the game. Crowder is said to be "day to day" now. With Troy playing a lowly ULM team, I think Crowder will either be out for this game or at the very least be limited.

Kilcrease is a huge drop off from Crowder. Troy's offense sputtered for a very long time last season when Crowder was out with an injury.

ULM couldn't score at all on LA Tech last week. They only scored 17 against a terrible Florida Atlantic defense. The Warhawks have slowed down their pace a lot in recent weeks as well.

Troy's defense is above average for Sun Belt standards. The offense is much more predictable if Crowder plays with a hurt shoulder or if Kilcrease is under center.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* I have always been a fan of Danny Gonzales. Gonzales is the DC of the Arizona Wildcats. He runs unique 3-3-5 looks from his Rocky Long history, and those innovative defenses are awfully tough to prepare for.

Iowa State piled up the points on West Virginia, but when they have played real defenses they have struggled to move the football. Iowa State scored only 17 on Utah and only 10 at BYU. They scored just 14 against Iowa.

Arizona is 20th nationally in defensive success rate allowed. The Wildcats are 4th in red zone defense too.

Iowa State's defense is sixth in the nation at preventing explosives.

These two teams are 99th and 119th in the nation in pace of play. I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under.

*I would play this as low as 48.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers offense has been horrible this season. Clemson is 126th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Tigers are 129th in PPA/pass. Virginia Tech's defense is 100th in PPA/pass allowed. The Hokies have been burned by good passing attacks. Clemson hasn't been able to throw it on anyone so far this season.

Clemson will want to run the ball. The Hokies defense is first in offensive line yards allowed. They are 8th best nationally in rush success rate allowed.

Virginia Tech's offense should find it difficult against Clemson's defense. Clemson is 13th in PPA/pass allowed. Clemson is also 10th in points per scoring opportunity allowed, so they have been very good in red zone defense.

I think both offenses will move the ball some, but it is likely they'll struggle to get into the end zone. This total has bumped up a little bit. I like the value toward the low side.

Take the under.

*I would play this as low as 48. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play on Ball State* Ball State has been a bit better than I expected this year. Their offense has been able to score a decent amount with Luster at quarterback.

Sacramento State is the worst team in the country. The Hornets haven't been competitive at all. They have been playing worse and worse. They were absolutely embarrassed by a mediocre Ohio team at home last weekend. Now, Sacramento State travels a long way to Muncie on Saturday. Are they excited about this one? It would be very surprising.

Sacramento State hasn't been able to score except for in garbage time. The Hornets are averaging just 4.65 yards per play.

Ball State rarely gets a chance to show off and win by margin. Here is their chance.

Take Ball State.

*I would play this as high as -15 but no higher. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona State defense has been exposed multiple times this year. Texas Tech was struggling along offensively until last week when they absolutely torched this Arizona State defense for big play after big play. Arizona State gave up a ridiculous 55 points to Baylor also. Baylor's offense was a mess against TCU, and they have been relatively weak for the season.

Kansas State is third in rushing play success rate. The Wildcats are 8th in PPA/rush. Arizona State is 103rd in PPA/rush allowed, and they are 92nd in rushing explosiveness allowed. Kansas State has scored 26 points or more in all but one game. They have scored 31 or more in 4 of their 6 games. This Wildcats offense is rolling along pretty nicely.

Arizona State switched to Mikey Keene at quarterback last game, and he looked good against a quality Texas Tech defense. I think he can be an upgrade. Kansas State is 137th in rushing explosiveness allowed this year. The Wildcats defense is only mediocre.

Take the over here.

*I would play this one as high as 58.5 points. Thanks and good luck*

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos are 13th in yards per play allowed. They are top ten in the nation in explosiveness allowed. North Dakota State is 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

New Mexico struggled badly on offense for a long period at Hawaii last week. If they aren't able to run the ball, the Lobos can stall out with their inability to throw the ball deep.

North Dakota State is all about the run as well. Their quarterback play has been poor this season.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play. There should be very few possessions in this game. A lot of running the football and moving clock.

I don't think there will be many explosives here. This projects as a rock fight type of game.

Take the under.

*I would play this for 4 stars down to 42.5 and 3 stars down to 40.5*