Matt Fargo – Sports Betting Predictions & Picks

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CFB Late Main Attraction. This is one of the biggest buy low/sell high spots of the college football season. Texas was ranked No. 1 in the country three weeks ago but lost to Oklahoma and Florida by identical 27-24 scores and now everyone is out on the Longhorns but this is the spot to jump on them amid quarterback controversy. Arch Manning has been very average this season as he has completed only 64 percent of his passes while throwing 11 touchdowns and five interceptions while his 59.3 QBR is No. 61 in the country out of 142 qualifiers. Mississippi opened the season 3-0 including wins over Louisville and LSU but then got rolled by Florida. The Rebels have since won two blowout games and are once again in the graces of the public and we sell high in this situation where the line is affected. Here, we play on home teams in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 31-9 (77.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (394) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Late Powerhouse. UTSA has made its comeback as it is coming off a pair of 7-6 seasons but has started 6-1 with the only loss coming against Texas. The Roadrunners have been a very fortunate team however as they are No. 2 in the Luck Ratings, trailing only Kentucky as four of the wins have been by one possession, three in their last three games and those include both road wins against Rice and Texas St. by seven points combined. This line stuck at 2.5 for a while but moved up to 3 on Thursday morning and it is not a big mover considering 93 percent of the money and tickets are on the Roadrunners. Tulane is coming off a huge win over Memphis which got it back in the American race as the Green Wave are 1-1 with the only loss coming at Army by a field goal and we love the home momentum. Here, we play on home teams off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 47-21 (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (370) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Baylor is coming off a loss against TCU last week 17-6 which was an awful performance as it was coming off a bye and riding a four-game winning streak. Now, the Bears hit the road as favorites and they will be popular based on rolling over Arizona St. in their only other road game but the Sun Devils are not a good team. DJ Lagway was the big transfer coming in but he has done nothing as he is completing only 50 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions so he has been a huge bust. Many consider Kansas not a very good team either as their only wins have come against Middle Tennessee and Long Island of the FCS. The Jayhawks are coming off two losses as the defense was blitzed in both but both were on the road. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 47-21 (69.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (366) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the UCF KNIGHTS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. This is the letdown of all letdowns as BYU is coming off one of its biggest program wins in defeating Notre Dame last Saturday night at home. That has been a common theme as the Cougars are not only 6-0 straight up but 6-0 against the spread and coming off a monumental win, this is the play against spot. The game against the Irish could have gone either way and it finished in a clock controversy but a win is a win and now comes the emotional letdown and a trip across the country as a reward. UCF has lost two straight games, both on the road against Big 12 up and comers Houston and Oklahoma St. so a return home is needed. From our good friend Marc Lawrence, he makes note that teams coming off a win over Notre Dame as underdogs and covered by more than two touchdowns are 2-18 ATS since 1982. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 76-40 (65.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (352) UCF Knights

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. Colorado St. has lost four straight games, all by double digits, as its defense has been tossed around, allowing a whopping 55.5 ppg but those were all against potent offenses and now they face a team that is ranked No. 101 in Adjusted EPA. The Rams have their own potent offense as they are averaging 35.7 ppg. Now they will get quarterback Hauss Hejny back as he missed the last three games with a hamstring injury and he brings in a 10:1 TD:INT Ratio. San Diego St. is coming off an upset win over Fresno St., its second upset win in the last three games but this team is still shorthanded due to the mumps outbreak. San Diego St. has been bad on the road as the Aztecs are 3-0 straight up and against the number, losing by an average of 31.7 ppg. Here, we play on home teams averaging 34 or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 28 to 34 ppg. This situation is 27-6 (81.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (410) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. San Jose St. comes in 4-3 but it has been a fortunate 4-3 as one win was against Cal Poly of the FCS and two of the Spartans conference wins were against Hawaii and UTEP, two of the three lowest rated MWC teams by Sagarin and they were actually outgained in both of those. San Jose St. benefitted from 11 sacks against UTEP and its atrocious offensive line. They have a good passing game but will be facing the No. 7 ranked passing defense and they have trouble running the ball. Nevada is just 2-4 but comes in favored by a significant amount and that is telling. The Wolf Pack are No. 130 in the Luck Ratings so nothing has gone their way as they have an overtime loss against Air Force and most recently, losing at North Dakota St., arguably the best team in the conference. Here, we play against teams averaging between 100 to140 rushing ypg and after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 140 to 190 rushing ypg. This situation is 38-24 (61.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (386) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. Eastern Michigan opened up 3-0 in the MAC but suffered its first conference loss last week against Toledo but that was a horrible spot with the Rockets which were coming off a 15-point loss as 18.5-point favorites to Buffalo. Now the Eagles need to regroup on the road and are catching their biggest number of the season against a team not named Wisconsin or Michigan St. They do own a pair of road wins against UMass and Akron and while that might not be saying much, the line change reflects that. Ohio has won four straight games including three in the MAC, all against similar opposition so we still do not know what this team is really made of. Their other two wins were against Jacksonville St. in overtime and Stonehill of the FCS. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after scoring 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) since 2022. 10* (349) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Early Dominator. We played against Florida Atlantic last week as it lost to Army by 32 points. It would be considered a good thing that the Owls are playing their next game against a similar style offense but that should not be the case here as they allowed 479 yards rushing on 60 carries (8.0 ypc) so they are at a big disadvantage here. Looking back, they played Navy six weeks ago and got shredded on the ground there too, allowing 246 yards on just 36 carries (6.8 ypc) so Rice will have success on the ground. These Owls have lost six straight games and the season is on the line as far as a bowl game goes and they know the gameplan here. They are coming off a great rushing performance against Tulsa but the result was not in their favor which has been the case all season as they are No. 125 in Luck Rating. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 35 or more ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (332) Rice Owls