Matt Fargo – Sports Betting Predictions & Picks

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Saturday Free Play. You could call this a letdown spot for Iowa which is coming off a last second win against Michigan but based on this opponent, there is zero chance for that letdown. The Hawkeyes are doing it again being on pace for another high finish in the Big Ten Conference and surpassing their win total as this team has won eight or more games in nine of the last ten years, the only exception being the COVID year when they played only eight games total. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is the reason as being the longest tenured coach in FBS, he continues to be consistent with his teams and that comes down to defense. They are tied for No. 7 in Defensive EPA/Play and while this is a test, we’ve seen them succeed in this spot before. Ohio St. is coming off a blowout win over Illinois but allowed 462 yards in the process and their numbers are skewed by allowing three points against Kent. St. and Ball St., the two worst teams in the MAC. The offense is one of the best but struggled in its only test at Texas and this environment in its second true road game is just as big of a test. Live dog. Play (186) Iowa Hawkeyes

Fargo is now 14-5-2 in the NFL to start the season! College Football is 20-15 YTD following another winning week. That adds up to 33-20-2 in Football YTD! Football is back in action on Saturday with SEVEN Winners.

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Main Attraction. Florida took care of business for us last week as it rolled over Mississippi which was in a letdown spot after the Rebels were coming off the LSU Win but now the Gators find themselves in a similar spot. They have looked great thus far and it has been a huge turnaround from their 4-8 record from last season as they have outgained opponents by over 180 ypg and outscoring them by over 30 ppg but now they head into a brutal spot with the spotlight on them and the line being inflated because of it. Missouri opened the season 3-0 but suffered its first loss last week at resurgent Mississippi St. as the defense got torched for 499 total yards. The Tigers had a very unimpressive win over Troy prior to that as they were outgained 323-230 as big favorites but now they are in a role they flourish in as they are 6-0 ATS under head coach Eli Drinkwitz as home underdogs of six or less. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (196) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Big 10 Game of the Year. USC got blitzed at home against Oregon despite Ducks quarterback Dante Moore getting knocked out which evidently fired them up. The Trojans need to rebound as this is a statement game after that bad look situation and the fact they have to travel to Penn St. next week and we all know how they struggle in the Eastern Time Zone. The season is far from over but a loss here and they could be cooked. This is a number they can easily cover following a loss. Washington was expected to make some noise in the Big Ten Conference but it has been far from impressive. The Huskies opened with the Apple Cup and played a closer than expected game and the other FBS games resulted in a two-point win over Utah St., which got its first win just last week, and a three-point loss to Minnesota at home and this marks their first road game. This looks like a team not into playing. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games and playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (182) USC Trojans

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Cincinnati won for us last week at home against Kansas St. as an underdog as the Bearcats were geeked up for that one following their big comeback against Miami Ohio and that home game being at night in a massive revenge spot and it resulted in another come-from-behind win. Now comes the letdown following two exciting wins by five points each to improve to 4-0 after opening with a pair of blowout wins over Boston College and Western Carolina. Cincinnati now makes the west coast trip for its first true road game of the season. Arizona is 3-1 with the loss coming at BYU just 11 points no thanks to a pick six so it was a quality loss but the Wildcats are already behind the eight ball in the Big 12 Conference, sitting at 0-1 so now they have to take care of business at home. Arizona is 0-4 ATS so there is value in a buy low spot in what is a great situation at home. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992. 10* (180) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Central Michigan got slaughtered last weekend against Miami 52-3 as it failed to cover the 41.5 points but that was a pay day only and now the real season starts. The Chippewas have a chance to contend after a 7-6 season including 5-3 in the MAC despite being -17 in turnovers and now they open the slate as a short favorite against one of the notoriously worst teams in the conference. They are back home where they have allowed 10 ppg in two games and are in position to keep that defense going. Akron had won four and five games respectively the last two seasons and looked like it may be on the rise but it has opened 1-3 and is already dealing with some significant injuries. Akron has averaged just 8.8 yards per reception this season 4th-worst among FBS Offenses so they have not been able to create explosive plays, while defensively they apply no pressure as they are averaging only one sack per 62.5 pass attempts, worst in the country. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 5.8 or more yppl, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (164) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We played Marshall in its season opener and it forgot to get off the bus as it was outgained 487-447 but has since won three straight games, albeit unimpressively as they came by a combined nine points but wins are wins. We are back on the Thundering Herd here in their Sun Belt Conference opener and this team was picked to contend in the East Division with four other teams including this week’s opponent. Despite the average results, the offense is playing well with the exception of the Penn St. game as quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is leading the team efficiently with excellent numbers. James Madison is 4-0 both straight up and ATS and the latter is helping up with this number which is overinflated. The Dukes are part of that contending group as this is a really good team but to be favored by this many points is a bit much. They have hardly faced an offense with a pulse and now that changes. Here, we play on road teams allowing 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 280 to 330 ypg. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (147) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our MAC Game of the Month. Massachusetts has been a major surprise this season as it is 4-0 with those four wins already half of their wins since 2019 when they went a combined 8-68. The Minutemen are on everyone’s radar now and with that comes inflating lines and that is the case here. Two of the four wins were against FCS teams, another against Sacramento St., arguably the worst FBS team in the country and in its first year up from the FCS and Rutgers. The emergence of quarterback Pop Watson is making the rounds and now everyone is lining up at the betting window. Eastern Michigan is no powerhouse but we don’t need the win and it comes in 2-3 with the wins coming against the already mentioned Sacramento St. and an FCS team with a one possession loss against San Jose St. teams and the other against two Wisconsin and Michigan St. This is the buy low/sell high spot. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (129) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Syracuse is off to a disappointing 1-2 start and it is even more disappointing considering both of those losses were winnable and coming off a bye week is a big edge to regroup. The Orange lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. They then lost to Pittsburgh as they were outgained by only 21 yards but simply failed to execute while untimely turnovers again. Now they take a step down in class as Connecticut comes in 2-2 but this is a team that has a bad matchup with its horrible defense. The loss of head coach Jim Mora is showing but we knew that coming in as the roster got gutted with only one starter having come back. Here, we play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in three straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 8.0 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (113) Syracuse Orange