Matt Fargo – Sports Betting Predictions & Picks

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. It has been a rough season for Northern Illinois as it is 0-9 including 0-5 in its first season in the Mountain West Conference. The move to the conference for the Huskies is questionable with the travel aspect of it and it has been in full force of late as they have gone to Wyoming, UNLV and San Jose St. in three of their last four games. Despite the record, the Huskies have shown signs of improvement, totaling at least 400 yards of offense in back-to-back games. Nevada is coming off a disappointing 31-3 loss to New Mexico and the Wolf Pack have struggled offensively, averaging just 20.8 ppg, making it difficult to trust them to win comfortably on the road where they are averaging only 16.8 ppg. Sitting at 3-6, this is a must win which we like to go against because it is typically overinflated. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 40-17 (70.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (216) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our SEC Game of the Month. The SEC is a wacky mess as everyone is just beating up on each other and signature wins have been evident with a follow up flat spot and we have that here. We were on Tennessee last Saturday and while it was against Kentucky, the Wildcats were ranked in the top ten and it was a huge rival so here comes the flat spot against one of the most disappointing teams in the country while laying points in that same situation. The Aggies have nothing to play for except pride and this is a big one as it is Operation Blackout. That environment should provide a major boost in a game where confidence and momentum will be important. Four of their five losses have been on the road with the lone home loss against Kentucky where they outgained the Wildcats. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 69-36 (65.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (210) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our AAC Game of the Year. Rice will be the unpopular play here as the Owls are 1-8 and has yet to defeat an FBS opponent and now they come in as a slight favorite which gives us the buy sign in a contrarian move. Rice is coming off a pair of road games with a bye in-between so they are back home for the first time in a month. The Owls average 270.2 rushing ypg, ranking fourth nationally, while Tulane allows 215.3 rushing ypg and that is a major weakness Rice can exploit. Quarterback Jacurri Brown adds another dimension with his running ability, giving Rice the potential to create explosive plays and sustain long drives. Tulane is also coming off a humiliating 60-10 loss to Tulsa, raising questions about its defensive confidence. Tulane looks done right now as this is a tough bounce back spot after that blowout loss. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 42 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 22-7 (75.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (174) Rice Owls

This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This is a big rivalry game called the “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” rivalry and we give the edge to the home team based on the number which is filled with value. Georgia Southern has covered six straight games but only two of those were on the road and they were both one possession wins laying less than a field goal and now the markets are over adjusting. Georgia St. is averaging an impressive 34.4 ppg and 431.7 total ypg, giving it the ability to put consistent pressure on the Georgia Southern defense and the Panthers are particularly potent on the ground, averaging 206.9 rushing ypg. On the other side, the Panthers are ranked No. 6 nationally in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 28.8 percent of their opportunities. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against teams averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 40-7 (85.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (146) Georgia St. Panthers