Doc’s Sports – Sports Handicapper

4-units Take #713 BC Lions over Montreal Alouettes (Saturday, July 5th, 7:00 p.m. CBSSN)

The BC Lions are catching 2.5 points in Montreal, but this number doesn’t reflect the current trajectory of either team. The return of Nathan Rourke at quarterback gives BC a clear edge—not just in talent, but in offensive identity. Rourke steps back into a system that’s already producing at a high level, ranking second in the CFL in both total yards (379 per game) and passing yards (282.5). The Lions have been especially efficient in the red zone, running a league-high 29 plays inside the 20. That kind of sustained offensive pressure is difficult to match, especially for a Montreal team that’s coming off its worst performance of the season.

The Alouettes dropped to 3–1 after a 35–17 loss in Hamilton, a game that exposed serious concerns at quarterback. With Davis Alexander sidelined for a second straight week, Montreal turns again to 37-year-old McLeod Bethel-Thompson. MBT looked overwhelmed against a mediocre Tiger-Cats secondary, finishing with a 59.3 QB rating, 5.0 yards per attempt, and two interceptions. He’s now lost four straight starts dating back to last season in Edmonton, and the sharpness he showed in relief against the Elks has quickly faded. Now he faces a BC defense that’s far more disciplined and athletic than Hamilton’s. The Lions lead the league in pass defense (183.8 yards allowed per game) and rank second in total defense (324.2). They’ve also allowed just 18 red zone plays all season, third-fewest in the CFL. While BC’s run defense has been a weak spot—giving up a league-worst 140.5 yards per game—Montreal hasn’t shown the consistency on the ground to exploit it.

This isn’t just a favorable matchup on paper—it’s one that’s historically tilted toward BC. The Lions are 7–3 straight up and 8–2 against the spread in their last 10 trips to Montreal. Even more compelling: they’re a perfect 10–0 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog against the Alouettes. That’s not noise—it’s a trend. With Rourke back at the controls, a defense that can smother MBT’s limited downfield attack, and a long track record of covering in this exact role, BC is the right side. Take the points, and don’t be surprised if they leave Montreal with a win.

7 Unit Play. Take #905 Milwaukee over Miami (4:10p.m., Saturday, July 5 MLB.tv) The Brewers are just a better team than the Marlins. I have no confidence in Cal Quantrill, as he does not do anything well and will get hit hard by the Brewers team. He has given up 11 home runs in 73 innings to go along with 81 hits. He has pitched a little better of late, but he will not last long in this game. Chad Patrick has been a tough luck loser with not much run support, but if he continues to pitch well the wins will eventually come. The Marlins were on a nice winning streak, but will enter this game having lost 2 of their last 3 games and they do not have the advantage on either side of the diamond this afternoon. Milwaukee grinded out a victory last night and they will use that momentum to win this series on Saturday going for the sweep on Sunday.