Al McMordie – Sports Handicapper

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Toledo.  Nick McDevitt's first season as the Blue Raiders basketball coach hasn't gone as smoothly as he had hoped.  The Blue Raiders are 3-7 straight-up, and 0-8 ATS following their 22-point loss at Murray St. last weekend.  Tonight, they'll travel to Toledo, which is 9-1 SU and 5-4 ATS after its upset win at Marshall last Saturday.  Overall, the Rockets have won and covered two straight.  But Middle Tennessee is 59-35 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins, if that foe owns a winning point spread mark.  And the Rockets are a money-burning 3-11 ATS at home off an upset win in their previous game.  Finally, Middle Tennessee State falls into 492-279 and 395-213 ATS systems of mine that play on certain double-digit underdogs off a loss.  Take the points with the Blue Raiders.  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons over Boston.  The Celtics have won eight straight, while Detroit has dropped six in a row.  Yet Boston is favored by a scant margin in this game.  This is a classic example of a sucker bet.  Indeed, consider that NBA road teams on win streaks of 5+ games that are not favored by more than 5 points against an opponent on a 5-game (or worse) losing streak have gone just 2-17 ATS over the past 11 years (and just 31% ATS over the past 29 years).  Take the points with Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Utah State.  The Mean Green have lost their last five games to the point spread.  But I love them to snap their streak this afternoon.  Indeed, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of 3.5 or more points have covered 83% in the post-season if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, North Texas has covered eight of its last 10 vs. non-conference foes (and 19 of its last 28).  These two conferences (Conference USA + Mountain West) have met eight times in Bowl games over the past six season, with Conference USA dominating -- 6-2 ATS.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Appalachian State.  This New Orleans Bowl game pits the Sun Belt Conference against Conference USA.  We played against Middle Tennessee State in its last game -- the Conference USA Title Game -- which was a horrendous situational spot for it.  Middle Tennessee had just defeated UAB, 27-3, to end its regular season (its fifth straight ATS win, at the time), but then had to play UAB in a re-match the very next week for the Conference Title.  Not surprisingly, UAB upset the Blue Raiders in that revenge match, so Middle Tennessee comes into this game off a loss.  But it's still 5-1 ATS, which compares favorably to Appalachian State's current 3-4 ATS run.  Let's go against Appalachian State tonight, as .500 (or better) Sun Belt teams are a terrible 2-25 ATS as favorites vs. non-conference foes, if our Sun Belt team isn't off a SU/ATS win, and it doesn't own a worse W/L record than its foe.  Take Middle Tennessee.  NCAA Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over Cleveland.  Last week, the Broncos were upset on the road by San Francisco, while Cleveland won outright as a home underdog vs. Carolina.  Since 1980, NFL home teams have cashed 63% off an upset road defeat if their opponent was off an upset home win.  Take Denver to blow out the Browns on Saturday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.