Ricky Tran – Sports Handicapper

A division game giving us 6 points to work with is too much to pass up on, despite how the Giants have looked thus far. Now 0-2 on the year, the Giants will go all in at Philadelphia. If they go 0-3, their season is over.

News just came in that Janoris Jenkins will play which is a huge boost for this Giants D. He should be tasked with covering Alshon Jeffrey who's coming off a seven-catch, 92 yards performance against the Chiefs. Also just in... all three starting Eagles CB's which were questionable have been ruled out! Those players are: Rodney McLeod, Jaylen Watkins and Corey Graham. 

I think the Eagles played quite solid at Kansas City, but they have two problems: Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz. Pederson has very weird play-calling. They were very successful on the ground but Pederson somehow went pass-heavy. Wentz can’t throw a deep ball to save his life. He is now 3/13 on deep balls (20+ yards) which includes the lucky Ertz catch at KC and he is 15/31 when targeting Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles might win solely with their defense, because Odell won’t be 100% and that Eagles front seven is an easy matchup for the Giants’ offensive line. However, Wentz should struggle against that Giants defense and we have a 6 point cushion to work with.

New York Giants +6

I normally like siding with 0-2 teams due to the desperation they play with in Week 3 knowing the season could be over early if they don't get the win, that being said I simply can't do it with New Orleans on the road in Carolina.

As great as Drew Brees has been playing over the first two weeks, he can’t carry that team alone. I see a lot of forced throws under pressure this one and for the Panthers elite linebacking core to pick a couple off. It also doesn't help that both of the Saints starting defensive tackles are injured.

It’s a tough road game at Carolina and Cam Newton is getting better. He still had some very weird throws but played better than against SF. If he makes the next step, the Panthers should put up a decent amount of points on the Saints college defense and I see their defense playing well against the Saints. Yes Greg Olsen is out, but they have a veteran replacement in Ed Dickinson. Panthers should roll this one home.

Carolina Panthers -5

The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in a professional football game. Let that sink for a while. The last time the Browns were road favorites was in week 7 of 2014 at Jacksonville (-2.5). I like what the Browns are doing offensively, but with Myles Garrett on a snap count at the most and Jamie Collins sidelined with a concussion, this defense has really nothing to compete. The Browns couldn’t get any pressure on Ben or Flacco during the first two games and I highly doubt that they are going to get consistent pressure on Brissett. There is no one on the Browns defense you have to account for or to work out a special gameplan for. Colts should move the ball and get some scores in this one. And for those who watch the Cardinals/Colts matchup last week, I swear Gore was running like he was 25 years old in his prime.

The key matchup in this game belongs to the Colts secondary. Malik Hooker gives this secondary something special as he already presented his great ball-hawking skills last Sunday with his first career interception. He can cover a lot of ground which makes the work of other defensive backs a lot easier. CB Rashaan Melvin played really solid thus far and the Colts probably get stud CB Vontae Davis back this week. Davis has been limited since last Friday and the chances are good that he lines up this week. That’s a tremendous boost for the Colts, especially matchup-wise. The Browns lost their best WR Corey Coleman due to a broken hand. Coleman is an accuracy-eraser who gives Kizer a larger margin for error. As explained before week one, Kizers biggest problem is his accuracy which has a high variance. Sammy Coates is still injured and unlikely to play. That leaves the Browns with Kenny Britt, Kasen Williams, Rashard Higgins and Ricardo Louis against an improving secondary. During the first two games Kizer showed off some great plays but also showed off some glaring mistakes when his receivers are covered. He tends to run into sacks and forces throws instead of throwing it away.

Indianapolis Colts +2

This is a great spot for the Jaguars. They come off an embarrassing divisional home loss and now will bring everything to the table to beat the Ravens. The Ravens come into this game with a suspect 2-0 record with wins over the Bengals and Browns - two teams who probably won't make the playoffs. And thus I think the Ravens are overvalued in this spot. The Jaguars once again saw that they can’t give the game into the hands of Blake Bortles and they are going to ground and pound again from the beginning. The Ravens are without their very best run defender Brandon Williams who didn’t make the trip, as well as their best lineman, Marshal Yanda, who made six consecutive pro bowls, for the season. The Ravens also have a huge game against the Steelers. 

The Jaguars defense is really awesome, don’t let the last game fool you. Until deep in the third quarter, they held the Titans and their great o-line to just field goals and a lot of three & outs until they got worn out and Derrick Henry just overrun them plus short field position. You can be sure that this Jaguars defense will completely shut down the overrated Ravens offense. I won’t bet on Blake Bortles often, but when I do, it’s against a bad offense where he doesn’t have to play catch-up.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I still don’t know how the Chargers lost last week because they played great on offense and played good on defense. The Chiefs have produced offensive metrics over the first two weeks that aren’t sustainable. They will regress over the next couple of weeks and this time they have to travel to Los Angeles and the Chargers are in allin mode facing a 0-3 and a realistic end to their season. They will bring it this week.

The Eagles had a lot of chances to win against KC, but Wentz’s accuracy and Pedersons play-calling held them back. The Chargers will have a lot of success offensively and will use the loss of Eric Berry. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry should have a really good game. Eagles targeted Ertz 10 times last week and we could see 10-15 targets for Gates and Henry, but with better accuracy from a better QB. After two wins with sensational metrics, the Chiefs should come down to earth here. I don’t like that Jason Verrett is still not practicing, but the Chiefs don’t have the type of route runners that can expose not having Berry on board. 

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5

The Raiders are a west coast team that plays in the pacific time zone and the Redskins play in the eastern time zone. When the game starts, the body clock of the Redskins players is at 8.30 PM EST, the body clock of the Raiders is at 5.30 PM EST. As the game moves on, the bodies of the Redskins calm down towards sleeping time, whereas the Raiders are still fresh. That has a high impact on the game. Going back to 1994, pacific time teams playing eastern time teams on the road on SNF or MNF: 21-5 ATS, outscoring the home teams 14.7 – 9.9 in the second half. Going back to 1989, road teams score 10.0 points per average in the second half and get outscored by 0.7 points by the home side. In the body clock games, pacific teams score 4.7 points more and outscore the home teams by 5.5 points more than in standard road games.

Not only do the Raiders have a biological advantage, they also have an offense that can outscore the Redskins easily. The Redskins defense doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the Raiders, period. I would be shocked if the Raiders stay below 24 in this one, I am rather looking at 28-35 points. It will depend on whether the Redskins are able to outscore the Raiders at home and I doubt it. Jordan Reed got injured, didn’t practice on Wednesday and word is that he doesn’t look healthy. That’s a huge downgrade for the Redskins offense because Reed is Cousins’ go-to guy. Reed saw 14 targets in two games and caught 6/6 passes against the Rams. Over the last two seasons, the Redskins are 3-5 SU and scored 20 or less points in half those games when Jordan Reed didn’t play. Terrelle Pryor has had dropping issues so far, Josh Doctson is still on a snap count. Raiders CB Sean Smith had an off-season in 2016 off his new contract but he played much better against the Titans and rookie Gareon Conley played well against the Jets. If the Raiders are able to lock down the WR's and Reed doesn’t play, it’s gonna be a long day for Cousins.

I think the Raiders will have their tough stretch during the second half of the season against strong defenses, but for now we just gotta ride them against mediocre defenses.

Oakland Raiders -3

Despite being 2-0, the Lions have played two really bad offenses - both with terrible offensive lines. The Giants now stayed below 20 points in their last eight consecutive games. The Cardinals offense is a complete mess – no WRs, no RBs, bad pass protection. I still think the Lions defense isn’t any good and they will get torched by a good offense. They will face a good offense this week. The Falcons should have no trouble moving the ball at Detroit this week.

Against the Cardinals, the Lions were held to 9 offensive points through three quarters. Against the Giants, they scored 17 offensive points and Stafford was held to a career low 122 total passing yards and 5 NYPPA. It was enough to win the game, because Stafford made great drive extending plays on his feet by running for first downs or by throwing on the move outside the pocket and that’s where the Giants defense failed – you gotta keep him in the pocket and let him react to pressure, because that’s when he starts making mistakes. In the second half, Stafford had 3 passing attempts. They know the Giants couldn’t score and they just ran the ball.

The Falcons are probably going to score early and often so the Lions offense will be forced to something they don’t really want to: abandon their offensive style and play catch-up with a good offense. Falcons should be able to jump a good lead in this one and run out the clock in the second half by forcing Stafford to step up and make consistent throws out of the pocket and stop throwing simple screens. I think the matchup for the Falcons offense is much better than the one for the Lions.

Atlanta Falcons -3

Deshaun Watson is not an NFL QB (yet). We saw it in the preseason, we saw it against Jacksonville and we saw it at Cincinnati. He has bad accuracy, a weak arm, throws with low velocity, completely panics and abandons his footwork when under pressure. The Patriots are going to have a good game plan against him because they already watched him in joint practices in August.

Rookie QBs are 0-8 at New England in the Belichick era, throwing 5 INT to 16 INT. They are going to contain him in the pocket and have a spy because they can aggressively cover every receiver not named DeAndre Hopkins. They will do the same as they did against PIT in the playoffs. Double-team Hopkins and make Watson beat them on other receivers. Bill O’Brien once again showed that he is a terrible play caller and completely non-creative when it comes to offensive scheming. Hopkins had every snap on the same side of the field and almost always ran the same routes. Belichick is goint to bait Watson to throw to Hopkins and block all the running lanes he can possibly get. I would be completely surprised if the Texans scored a touchdown this week.

On the other side, the Texans don’t have enough quality on defense at this point. They lost Kevin Johnson (4-6 weeks), Johnathan Joseph is hurt, Brian Cushing is suspended and they don’t have a quality SS that can match up with Gronkowski (I predict that he plays). This is still a good defense, but they don’t have the tools to match up with the versatility of the Patriots offense.

New England -13

This is a great situational spot to take the Bills. The Broncos are super high-flying emotionally after that astonishing blowout win at home against the Cowboys. As we found out last week, the Broncos not only have one of the best home field advantages in general, they also are 31-3 at home now during the first two weeks since 1989. They are 136-65 starting in week 3. Now travelling to Buffalo to play on the road with a game against the 2-0 Raiders on deck is a completely different and tough spot. With Trevor Siemian at QB – even though the passing game is improved – the Broncos haven’t been road warriors in 2016. They went 3-4 and one win at New Orleans was off a last-second FG block return touchdown. Every team has its off-games and I expect the Broncos to have an off-game at Buffalo. The perception is that the Broncos are now unbeatable and the Bills are a team that wants to tank. Before the season started most of the people had the Broncos as an 8-8/9-7 team and the Bills around 5-11/6-10. Now because of two games and two trades, the perception changed drastically.

With the Bills we don’t really need to care about the passing matchup, because the Bills don’t have the receivers to win one on one matchups against the Broncos so they aren’t going to target them often. The Bills must get their run game going like last year and simply overwhelm and outwear that Denver defense and rely on Tyrod Taylor's feet. When they go run-heavy and mix in some designed runs for Taylor and create field position on defense like I expect them to, they have a very good shot to win this game.

Buffalo Bills +3