Scott Rickenbach – Sports Handicapper

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET (game played at BB&T Park in Williamsport, PA) - This is the 2nd year of the MLB Little League Classic which is held during the Little League World Series. I remember last year's game well as I got burned on the over. The total was a 9.5 and the game was 6-2 after 3 innings and yet ended up a 6-3 final despite 20 hits in the game. Both lineups saw the ball just fine in this park and the ballpark is adjusted to MLB dimensions. There were two homers hit in last year's game and I expect at least a pair to leave the yard again in this year's match-up. Pitching on an unfamiliar mound is, to me, the bigger hurdler in a game like this and I expect both Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta to have some struggles. I also like the fact that the total, which opened up at a 9, has dropped down to an 8.5 as of game day morning. The Mets Vargas is 2-8 this season with an 8.10 ERA. Though the Phillies Pivetta has pitched better of late, he is still just 3-6 with a 5.32 ERA in his 14 apperances (13 starts) since June 1st. New York is 17-9 to the over as a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Pivetta has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Mets and the over is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. Look for that streak to make it 4 in a row tonight! 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia (game played in Williamsport, PA)

Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks fell short 7-6 yesterday but they continue to love hitting Padres pitching. Arizona has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 games against San Diego. Also, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 5-1 in the 6 games played at Petco Park this season! I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Not only does the ball carry better in day games in San Diego, we're also getting a low total to work with because Zack Greinke is on the mound. Now, don't get me wrong, Greinke is a fine pitcher but there is no doubt that he is more comfortable on his own mound in comparison with enemy mounds. This season opponents are hitting 55 points higher against Greinke when he is on the road and his ERA is 1.36 runs higher when away from home. This is not a "one year fluke" either as last season he went 13-1 at home but only 4-6 on the road where opponents hit 47 points higher against him. The real key to the value here is that Arizona could very well get this game over the total all by themselves. As noted above, they love hitting Padres pitching and the other key here is that Padres rookie starter Brett Kennedy has been absolutely crushed in each of his first two starts this season. Both of those games flew over the total and the over is now 9-4 in the Padres last 13 games. Though Petco Park has a reputation as a pitchers park the markets tend to over-adjust for this and that is why the over is 37-24 in Padres home games this season. Also, only 6 of Arizona's last 17 games versus teams with a losing record have resulted in an under. In other words, you can see why plenty of runs can be expected again this afternoon at Petco Park. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:10 ET - Though the winds are not favorable for an over today in Cleveland, this also is likely part of the reason the total moved from an opener of 9 down to an 8.5 as of game day morning. I like the extra value being offered here because I expect both hurlers to struggle. Yefrey Ramirez gets the start for the Orioles. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts. Though he is off of a decent start, those have been rare and also that outing was at home. In his two prior starts, both on the road, Ramirez was rocked for a combined 11 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 inning of work. The Indians are starting Mike Clevinger in this one. Though his most recent home start stayed under the total, the over was on a 7-1-2 run in his 10 prior starts as a host! Clevinger walked 6 in just 5 innings against the Reds in his most recent start. Also, he gave up a pair of homers in that start and that was the 2nd time in 3 starts that he has allowed multiple homers in a game. The over is 12-6-1 in Baltimore's 19 Sunday games this season. The under has cashed in 3 straight Indians games but they've not had 4 straight unders in over two months. In other words, the odds are certainly in our favor that the bats will be the story on Sunday! 8* OVER the total in Cleveland