Frank Sawyer – Sports Handicapper

At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (953) versus the Miami Marlins (954) listing both starting pitchers Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera. THE SITUATION: Chicago (28-19) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests after their 6-2 win against the Chicago White Sox yesterday. Miami (18-27) has won three of their last four games after their 5-1 victory at home against Tampa Bay on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago goes back on the road where they have won 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 6 of their last 9 road games when proved as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 10 of their last 15 road games at night. The Cubs have also won 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. Brown gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 3-3 record along with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in nine games (eight starts). Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.52 and 3.48 moving forward. He also has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 1.59 ERA along with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in three starts as opposed to his 6.93 ERA along with a 1.95 WHIP and a .318 opponent’s batting average of .318 in his six appearances at home at Wrigley Field. He faces a Marlins’ team that ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Miami has lost 12 of their last 17 games after winning their last game. They have lost 42 of their last 63 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Cabrera who has a 0-1 record along with 5.52 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in six starts. His 4.55 SIERA and his 4.58 xFIP are about a run better than his ERA — but neither number is very encouraging moving forward. He has a tough challenge against this Cubs team that ranks second in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on May 13th in a 3-1 upset win by the Marlins on the road at Wrigley Field — and Chicago has won 8 of their last 11 road games when avenging an upset loss at home. 8* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (953) versus the Miami Marlins (954) listing both starting pitchers Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera. Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 5/19:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with the Seattle Mariners with the money-line versus the Chicago White Sox listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Davis Martin. Seattle (26-19) has won four games in a row after their 6-1 win at San Diego on Sunday. The Mariners have won 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also won 13 of their last 21 games against teams who are not winning more than 38% of their games. Chicago (14-33) has lost five games in a row after their 6-2 loss across town against the Cubs yesterday. The White Sox have lost 23 of their last 32 games after losing their last game. They have also lost 16 of their last 22 games after losing two or more games in a row. Take Seattle with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 16 of 23 (70%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Year with Florida’s blowout victory against Toronto yesterday! Now Frank UNLEASHES a 25* MLB Divisional Game of the Month for Monday night — DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (951) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Nick Lodolo and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (24-24) has won four games in a row after their 3-1 win at home against Cleveland yesterday. Pittsburgh (15-32) has lost three games in a row and five of their last six contests after their 1-0 loss at Philadelphia yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cincinnati has been reliable in the role of the road favorite — they have won 16 of their last 22 games on the road when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite including four of those five occasions this season. They have also won 13 of their last 17 games against teams who are not winning more than 38% of their games including six of those nine games this season. Lodolo gets the ball with a 3-4 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander has consistently been more effective when pitching away from the Great American Ballpark. While he has struggled with a 6.33 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in four starts at home this season, he has thrived on the road where he enjoys a 1.44 ERA along with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 in five starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Lodolo had a 3.56 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .166 in ten starts on the road as opposed to his 6.09 ERA along with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in 11 starts at home. And while Lodolo had a 4.76 ERA last season, both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 3.78 and 3.95 — so his improved numbers this season were forecast from his peripheral numbers last year. Now he faces a Pirates team that ranks 23rd in MLB at home against left-handed pitchers in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 13 of their 16 games this month — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games against fellow National League Central rivals. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 13 of their 22 games at home this season — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games at home when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They have also lost 21 of their last 31 games as an underdog — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150