Frank Sawyer – Sports Handicapper

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the TPC Toronto in Caledon, Ontario, for the 115th RBC Canadian Open. This event takes place on the Osprey Valley’s North Course for the second-straight year, despite the Canadian national championship rotating courses from year to year. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7389 yards with only two Par 5 holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 48 sand bunkers and water hazards on three of the holes. The bluegrass rough has grown out to 4 inches (down from six inches last year). The fairways average a wide 37 yards in width. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass/Poa annua mixture with the greens averaging 6500 square feet. The speed of the greens will reach 12 feet on the stimpmeter after peaking at 11 1/2 feet last year. The average score per round last year for this event was 68.746. Windy conditions are expected. The top 65 scorers plus ties will make the weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Alex Fitzpatrick (+3900 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7016) versus Michael Thorbjornsen (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:37 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Alex Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +3900 odds at DraftKings. Our boy Matt’s little brother has thrived since earning his PGA Tour card by joining with him to win the PGA Zurich Classic of New Orleans doubles event in April. Since then, he has added three more top nine or better finishes in his next four PGA Tour events. He finished in a tie for sixth place last week at The Memorial, where he gained almost +2.0 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. The younger Fitzpatrick did not come out of nowhere — he has four top 20 finishes on the European DP Tour, including a victory at the difficult Hero Indian Open. He has finished in the top ten in six of his last seven tournaments worldwide. His three top tens in solo events on the PGA Tour this spring have all been highly competitive Signature Events — so he is not taking advantage of weaker fields. He has gained strokes versus the field in Off the Tee in all those events — and he would rank in the top 20 on the PGA Tour in that metric if he had the sample size to qualify for those rankings. The +1.55 strokes gained versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green is second in the field, trailing only his brother, Matt. He ranks fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots Gained: Tee to Green. He is a great fit for this course given his power off the tee. While I don’t love that he has not played this track as a professional, that is less of a factor for the Canadian national championship, since they usually rotate locations. At these odds, he offers great value as the betting public has not caught up to how good he is.

Fitzpatrick is linked with Michael Thorbjornsen in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thornbjornsen comes off a 16th place at the PGA Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago — but he had missed the cut in two of his previous PGA events at the PGA Championship and the PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He is long off the tee — but that only translates into a ranking of 46th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. His iron play is worrisome as well, as he ranks 104th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. In his third year on the PGA Tour, he has only finished in the top ten once in his career. He has yet to play TPC Toronto as a professional. Take Alex Fitzpatrick (7016) versus Thorbjornsen (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If you typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the TPC Toronto in Caledon, Ontario, for the 115th RBC Canadian Open. This event takes place on the Osprey Valley’s North Course for the second-straight year, despite the Canadian national championship rotating courses from year to year. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7389 yards with only two Par 5 holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 48 sand bunkers and water hazards on three of the holes. The bluegrass rough has grown out to 4 inches (down from six inches last year). The fairways average a wide 37 yards in width. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass/Poa annua mixture with the greens averaging 6500 square feet. The speed of the greens will reach 12 feet on the stimpmeter after peaking at 11 1/2 feet last year. The average score per round last year for this event was 68.746. Windy conditions are expected. The top 65 scorers plus ties will make the weekend cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Nicolai Hojgaard (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hojgaard (7144) versus Harry Hall (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:10 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Nicolai Hojgaard, who is listed at +3000 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Hojgaard missed the cut last week at The Memorial — but he has still finished in a tie for fifth or better place in three of his last 13 PGA events. He finished in a tie for second place last month at the PGA Truist Championship. He thrives in longer courses with easier scoring conditions — and he leads the field in scoring at these types of courses in the last 12 months. Hojgaard is one of the most powerful drivers on the tour — he ranks sixth in Driving Distance this season. But keeping his ball in the fairway is a challenge as he ranks 145th in Driving Accuracy — so he should benefit from the wide 37-yard fairways on average at TPC Toronto. His struggles at Jack’s Place last week were because he was missing too many fairways. He leads the field this week in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. Hojgaard is quite good with his irons as he ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Overall, he ranks 11th in Shots-Gained: Total in 2026. When he plays well, he tends to lap the field as he has the third most rounds in the field this week, where he gained at least +3.0 strokes gained per round versus his competition in the last six months. He missed the cut here last year — but he is in better form now and should benefit from that experience learning the course.

Hojgaard is linked with Harry Hall in Round One head-to-head props. Hall comes off a tie for 29th place last week at The Memorial — but he had missed the cut in his previous two events at the PGA Championship and then the PGA Charles Schwab Challenge. Hall’s performances can get too reliant on how well his fickle putter is operating for him that week. He has struggled off the tee lately — and he ranks just 131st on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. His irons have been sketchy as well, and he ranks 96th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Hall is at his best with his chipper and sand wedge as he ranks 13th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — but those are not skills that are as important this week, given just the 48 sand bunkers and the large greens that average 6500 square feet in size. Hall finished 24th here last year — but he ranks 107th in Round One scoring this season. Take Nicolai Hojgaard (7144) versus Hall (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the TPC Toronto in Caledon, Ontario, for the 115th RBC Canadian Open. This event takes place on the Osprey Valley’s North Course for the second-straight year, despite the Canadian national championship rotating courses from year to year. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7389 yards with only two Par 5 holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 48 sand bunkers and water hazards on three of the holes. The bluegrass rough has grown out to 4 inches (down from six inches last year). The fairways average a wide 37 yards in width. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass/Poa annua mixture with the greens averaging 6500 square feet. The speed of the greens will reach 12 feet on the stimpmeter after peaking at 11 1/2 feet last year. The average score per round last year for this event was 68.746. Windy conditions are expected. The top 65 scorers plus ties will make the weekend cut.

BEST BET: Wyndham Clark (+2400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Clark (7139) versus Robert MacIntyre (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:59 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA RBC Canadian Open is on Wyndham Clark, who is listed at +2400 odds at DraftKings. Clark seems to have found his magical form of 2023 when he won the US Open and the Wells Fargo Championship. After winning the PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson last month, he followed that up with a third-place finish at The Memorial last week. He led the loaded field last week in both Shots-Gained: Tee to Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Overall, he gained +2.24 strokes versus the field per round at Jack’s Place last week. He has gained +16.8 total strokes versus the field in his last two events — and he has now gained strokes versus the field in 10 of his last 11 PGA Tour events. He has been slowly rising to this level all spring, with five top 21 or better finishes in his last six tournaments. For the year, he ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 20th in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. But his recent resurgence has come from his improved putting — he has gained strokes versus the field with his blade in four straight tournaments, which is the first time he has accomplished that feat since 2024. He is a good fit for TPC Toronto because he is long off the tee, and the wide fairways here are forgiving. His drive of 446 yards in 2026 is the longest on the tour this season. He is also razor sharp with his wedges, which come into play given the distance of this course. Clark ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots Gained: Approach the Green from 50 to 125 yards. He is one of the pros who played at this event last year, where he finished in 59th place — but he is in better form now and will benefit from those four rounds.

Clark is listed with Robert MacIntyre in Round One head-to-head props. MacIntyre is slumping right now — he has missed the cut in three of his last six PGA tournaments since finishing in second place at the PGA Valero Texas Open. He has missed the cut in two of his last three events after not making the weekend at The Memorial last week. While he is very accurate off the tee and a great putter, he needs to be solid with his irons to stay competitive. But MacIntyre now ranks 136th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is not a great fit for this course either, as he ranks 75th in Driving Distance. He is accurate off the tee as he ranks 35th in Driver Accuracy — but that is not as important this week with the wide fairways averaging 37 yards. He did place this stop last year, where he settled for 36th place when he was in better form. MacIntyre ranks 70th in Round One scoring, while Clark ranks 46th in Round One scoring and is playing his best golf in the last three years. Take Clark (7139) versus MacIntyre (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.