Frank Sawyer – Sports Handicapper

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7327 yards. This year’s event is 38 yards longer, given several chances at the Par 4 fourth hole. The golf club removed the Hewitt Tree that was a hazard in the middle of this fairway, given irreversible decay that made it a safety risk. To adjust, two fairway bunkers were added, and a third bunker was repositioned — and the tee box was moved back. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 144 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulating putting surfaces consist of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was 69.436 (versus 68.588 in 2024). Five of the last seven winners had a score of 21 or more under par. Rain and storms may be on the horizon for the weekend, with winds expected to pick up.
LONG SHOT: Tom Kim (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kim (7143) versus Michael Thorbjorsen (7144) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:45 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Tom Kim, who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Kim is playing some of the best golf of his career, as evidenced by his third-place finish at the US Open in his last start two weeks ago. He has three top-15 finishes in his last five PGA Tournaments. His accuracy with his driver has improved lately — and he remains elite on the tour with his irons. He ranks 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fourth in the field in that metric over the last three months. He also ranks 27th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is also swinging a hot putter by gaining strokes versus the field in three straight tournaments with his blade. He missed the cut in his first professional trip to TPC Deere Run last year — but he is in much better form 12 months later.

Kim is linked with Michael Thorbjornsen in Round One head-to-head props. This is Thorbjornsen’s first PGA event since finishing in a tie for 54th place three weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open. He is not in great form right now with two missed cuts in his last four events. He is simply down this season from last year when he led the PGA Tour in Greens In Regulation. He has dropped to 51st on the tour in that metric in 2026. He also ranks just 95th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His ability to score low at one of the less challenging courses on the tour is his question, given his putting woes. He ranks just 124th in Shots-Gained: Putting this year. He also ranks only 98th in Birdies or Better percentage. He has made the cut in all three of his professional trips to Slovis, headlined by a tie for second place — but his recent form questions whether he can flip the switch this week. Take Kim (7143) versus Thorbjornsen in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7327 yards. This year’s event is 38 yards longer, given several chances at the Par 4 fourth hole. The golf club removed the Hewitt Tree that was a hazard in the middle of this fairway, given irreversible decay that made it a safety risk. To adjust, two fairway bunkers were added, and a third bunker was repositioned — and the tee box was moved back. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 144 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulating putting surfaces consist of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was 69.436 (versus 68.588 in 2024). Five of the last seven winners had a score of 21 or more under par. Rain and storms may be on the horizon for the weekend, with winds expected to pick up.

BEST BET: Chris Gotterup (+1425 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Gotterup (7141) versus Keegan Bradley (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:45 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA John Deere Classic is on Chris Gotterup, who is listed at +1425 odds at DraftKings. Gotterup is one of four members on the PGA Tour with multiple victories — he opened the season by winning the Sony Open in January before winning the WM Phoenix Open. He also won the PGA Genesis Scottish Open last July. His skill set is a great fit for this course because he is one of the best bombers on the tour. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance. He also ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and 19th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is very good with his irons, as he ranks 39th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, which is even more impressive given the field this week. He is one of the best players on the tour right now when handling wind — so if storms do arrive this weekend, he is in a better position to roll with the punches. Gotterup ranks 25th on the PGA Tour in Birdies or Better percentage — so he can hang if this event becomes a scoring fest. He earned his first top-five result on the PGA Tour at TPC Deere Run when he finished fourth in this tournament in 2022. He added a tie for 21st place last year.

Gotterup is linked with Keegan Bradley in Round One head-to-head props. Bradley comes off a tie for 14th place last week at the PGA Travelers Championship — and that was the best finish in his last seven tournaments. He does have five top 25s since the Masters — but he is not putting himself in serious contention. His 12th-place finish at the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters is his best result in 2026. He is not a great fit for this course, as he ranks 87th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Bradley tends to be a better option at more difficult courses. His putting skills are an obstacle to him thriving on easier golf courses. He ranks 94th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also ranks 80th in Birdies or Better percentage. He has not played TPC Deere Run since 2016, when he finished in 22nd place, his best result in two professional visits. Bradley also ranks 69th on the tour this year in Round One Scoring — while Gotterup ranks 37th in 2026 in Round One Scoring. Take Gotterup (7141) versus Bradley (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7327 yards. This year’s event is 38 yards longer, given several chances at the Par 4 fourth hole. The golf club removed the Hewitt Tree that was a hazard in the middle of this fairway, given irreversible decay that made it a safety risk. To adjust, two fairway bunkers were added, and a third bunker was repositioned — and the tee box was moved back. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 144 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulating putting surfaces consist of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was 69.436 (versus 68.588 in 2024). Five of the last seven winners had a score of 21 or more under par. Rain and storms may be on the horizon for the weekend, with winds expected to pick up.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Keith Mitchell (+1850 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Mitchell (7003) versus Keegan Bradley (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:34 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keith Mitchell, who is listed at +1850 odds at DraftKings. Mitchell finished in a tie for fourth place at the US Open two weeks ago. He followed that up with a tie for 22nd place last week at the Travelers Championship. He has three top 10s and another three top 25s in 2026. His Ball-Striking is peaking right now — and he is a great fit for TPC Deere Run. Mitchell is one of the biggest bombers with his driver on the tour — and these wide fairways are forgiving. He ranks 15th in Driving Distance and fifth in Driving Distance: All Drives in 2026. This helps him rank fifth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and 15th in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. His skill set works in expected low-scoring contests. He ranks 13th on the tour in Birdies or Better percentage. He also ranks 23rd on the tour in Converting Greens Hit to Par Breakers. He is putting well lately as well. He has gained strokes versus the field with his putter in four of his last six tournaments. He has made the cut in four of his five professional trips to the Quad Cities for this event, headlined by a seventh-place finish in 2018 and an 18th-place result in 2024.

Mitchell is linked with Keegan Bradley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Bradley comes off a tie for 14th place last week at the PGA Travelers Championship — and that was the best finish in his last seven tournaments. He does have five top 25s since the Masters — but he is not putting himself in serious contention. His 12th-place finish at the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters is his best result in 2026. He is not a great fit for this course, as he ranks 87th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Bradley tends to be a better option at more difficult courses. His putting skills are an obstacle to him thriving on easier golf courses. He ranks 94th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also ranks 80th in Birdies or Better percentage. He has not played TPC Deere Run since 2016, when he finished in 22nd place, his best result in two professional visits. Take Mitchell (7003) versus Bradley (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no h higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.