Jim Feist – Sports Handicapper

This one is built for points, and the total has already moved to reflect it. Arizona at Dallas kicks off Sunday at 10:00 a.m. PT at AT&T Stadium on FOX. Arizona allows 29.7 points per game, worst in the league, while Dallas allows 25.7, and Dallas scores 27.0 per game, fifth in the NFL.

Dallas is coming in hot offensively. Dak Prescott just had arguably his best game of the season in the 38-21 Monday night win at Philadelphia, completing 15 of 27 passes for 212 yards and three touchdowns, all three to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb has no injury designation for Week 8, and Prescott has no injury designation either after playing every game this season. With the roof closed and no weather to slow the passing game, Prescott should be able to attack an Arizona defense that has given up points all year.

Arizona can hold up its end too, with Jacoby Brissett starting. Brissett is a veteran who can run a clean game, and Dallas's defense is not built to shut anyone down right now, ranking 29th in yards allowed at 373.7 per game. Arizona does not need to win this game to push the total over, it just needs to trade scores in the second half as Dallas pulls away. Expect Dallas to get to 30-plus again and Arizona to do enough to clear a total that has already been bet up five points.

Jim's play: 243. Cards/ Cowboys Over

This over is mostly about Cincinnati against a Tennessee defense that just got weaker. Tennessee at Cincinnati kicks off Sunday at 10:00 a.m. PT at Paycor Stadium on CBS. The Bengals rank fourth in scoring at 27.2 points per game, and Joe Burrow is playing some of the cleanest football of his career, completing 71.7% of his throws for 1,653 yards with a 15-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 110.4 passer rating. He threw four touchdown passes in the second half alone in Cincinnati's 35-13 win at Baltimore last week.

Tennessee traded away All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to Chicago on Thursday, leaving a crater in the middle of a defense that already allows 364.1 total yards per game and 131.1 rushing yards per game. That sets up both parts of the over: Burrow can punish the secondary with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and a run-positive second half for Cincinnati, with a big lead, should still produce points for Chase Brown rather than just clock-killing. Tennessee is not helpless on the other side either. Tony Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns against Cleveland last week, ranks tenth in the league with 478 rushing yards, and should see an even larger workload with Tyjae Spears out with a knee injury. Expect Cincinnati to get to 30-plus easily and Tennessee to do enough, especially late, to push this past the number.

Jim's Play: 253. Titans/Bengals Over

This one sets up as a division grinder, not a shootout. Atlanta at Tampa Bay kicks off Sunday at 10:00 a.m. PT at Raymond James Stadium on FOX. Both teams are under .500, both are fighting for first place in the NFC South, and neither needs to open this game up to win it.

Tampa Bay's path to the under is the run game and the clock. The Bucs ran for 258 yards last week against Carolina while Baker Mayfield threw just 11 passes for 64 yards, and Bucky Irving has at least 21 touches in three straight games. That run-heavy approach runs straight into an Atlanta defense that ranks fourth against the run, allowing just 88.9 yards per game, so Tampa Bay should be able to control tempo without necessarily finishing drives quickly. Tampa Bay is also thinner outside: Emeka Egbuka is out with a foot injury, after being ruled out on Friday's final report.

Atlanta's side points the same way. Bijan Robinson was bottled up for just 63 yards on 20 carries last week against San Francisco, and the Falcons are without Brian Robinson, ruled out with a hamstring injury, while listing eight other players as questionable. Michael Penix Jr. has been efficient since returning, with nine touchdowns against one interception over five games, but efficiency in a low-possession division game still leaves room for field goals and punts, not a 50-point track meet. Expect both teams to lean on the run, play field position, and keep this in the 30s.

Jim's Play: 245. Falcons/Bucs Under

Seven points is too many for a Patriots team walking into Miami this shorthanded. New England at Miami kicks off Sunday at 1:25 p.m. PT at Hard Rock Stadium on CBS. The number has already come down, and Saturday's injury news explains why: New England ruled out star receiver A.J. Brown with ankle and knee issues, running back TreVeyon Henderson with an illness, and tackle Marcus Bryant with an ankle injury. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are already on injured reserve, so Drake Maye will be throwing to a thin group in a place where New England has historically struggled.

Miami is in a home underdog spot with a chance to hang around, not a team that has to win outright to cash. The Dolphins just won 28-25 on the road at the Jets, showing they can score enough to stay within a touchdown, and Maye's habit of throwing costly interceptions gives Miami a path to short fields and cheap points. With Brown out, New England loses its best downfield threat, and a one-dimensional Patriots offense should have a harder time pulling away late. Expect a close, back-and-forth division game that stays within one score into the fourth quarter.

Jim's Play: 262. Dolphins

This is a classic home-underdog division spot, and Denver has the form, the defense, and the matchup edges to win it outright. Kansas City at Denver kicks off Sunday at 1:25 p.m. PT at Empower Field at Mile High. Denver is 5-2 and has won three straight, 30-16 at Arizona, 17-14 over Seattle, and 23-17 at the Chargers, while Kansas City is 5-1 but just lost 20-3 at Seattle and has scored 22 or fewer points in its last two games.

The biggest reason to back Denver is a defense that has found itself since Week 1. Kansas City did score 31 points on the Broncos in the opener, but since Week 2 Denver has allowed just 18.3 points per game over its last six games, ranking fourth in scoring defense in that span. The pass rush is the engine: Denver leads the league with 21 sacks, Nik Bonitto is coming off a 13-pressure performance against Arizona, and Jonathan Cooper returned last week after starting the season on the Commissioner's Exempt List, playing 45 snaps in his debut and giving Denver another edge presence. That rush matters against Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown nine touchdowns against four interceptions this season and needs time to find Travis Kelce, who has 343 receiving yards, and Rashee Rice. Denver also has not lost at home this season, and the altitude in a late-afternoon division game is a real factor in the fourth quarter against a team traveling in.

The injury report tilts the secondary matchup toward Denver as well. Kansas City downgraded cornerback Mansoor Delane to out on Saturday and placed cornerback L'Jarius Sneed on injured reserve, leaving the Chiefs thin at corner against Bo Nix and a receiving group led by Jaylen Waddle, who has 26 catches for 276 yards. That is especially dangerous because Denver's passing game is built on yards after the catch: 64% of Nix's passing yards this season have come after the catch, the second-highest rate of any quarterback, and Kansas City's tackling was a problem last week in Seattle, where the Seahawks went 11 of 16 on third down and forced numerous missed tackles. Denver will be without running back RJ Harvey and safety Talanoa Hufanga, and Garett Bolles, Zach Allen, Brandon Jones, and Waddle are all questionable, but cornerback Pat Surtain II carries no game status, which keeps Denver's best cover man available against Mahomes.

Denver's offense does not need to be explosive to win this game, it just needs to be efficient and physical. Nix led Denver to 377 net yards and 30 points against Arizona last week, including a 62-yard touchdown run, as the Broncos posted a season-high 159 rushing yards. J.K. Dobbins has 293 rushing yards on the season, Nix has thrown seven touchdowns against three interceptions for 1,271 yards, and Denver can lean on the run and short passing game to keep Mahomes off the field and wear down a Kansas City defense that is already dealing with cornerback injuries. Kansas City's best counter is Kenneth Walker III, who leads the league with 116.8 rushing yards per game, but Denver's defense is built to make Kansas City one-dimensional in the second half, and a low-scoring, fourth-quarter game at Mile High favors the home team. Expect Denver to control the clock, get just enough from Nix and the run game, and close this out late.

Jim's Play: 260. Broncos

This total has already been bet down for a reason, and the defenses on both sides are the story. Kansas City at Denver kicks off Sunday at 1:25 p.m. PT at Empower Field at Mile High on CBS. Denver has allowed just 18.3 points per game over its last six games, ranking fourth in scoring defense in that span, and Kansas City has scored 22 or fewer points in its last two games, including just three points at Seattle last week.

Denver's pass rush is the main under engine. The Broncos lead the league with 21 sacks, Nik Bonitto is coming off a 13-pressure game against Arizona, and Jonathan Cooper is back in the rotation after his season debut last week. That pressure should force Mahomes into quick throws and checkdowns, and Denver's offense is not built to answer with a shootout of its own, averaging just 270 yards per game, 30th in the league. Bo Nix has thrown for only 1,271 yards with seven touchdowns this season, and Denver's best path is the run game and short passing attack, which eats clock without necessarily producing explosive scoring drives.

Add in the division-game factor at Mile High in November, where points are historically hard to come by, and a game script where both coaches should lean on the run and field position rather than opening things up. Kansas City's Kenneth Walker III, who leads the league with 116.8 rushing yards per game, can grind out yards, but grinding out yards is exactly what keeps the clock moving and the total down. Expect a physical, low-scoring game that stays in the 30s even if it stays close late.

Jim's Play: 259. Chiefs/Broncos Under

Washington is the favorite here, and the gap between these two teams right now is wider than the spread suggests. Philadelphia at Washington kicks off Sunday at 5:20 p.m. PT at Northwest Stadium in Landover on NBC. The Commanders come off their bye with a rest advantage, 13 days to Philadelphia's six, after the Eagles played Monday night.

The Eagles are in a free fall. Philadelphia is 2-5 and on a five-game losing streak after Monday's 38-21 loss to Dallas, averaging just 15.8 points per game over those five losses. The reason is at quarterback: Jalen Hurts is out for the season with blood clots in his lungs, leaving Tanner McKee to start, and McKee is 0-2 with two losses against the spread in his absence. Philadelphia is also without DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks, and Saquon Barkley is questionable again after missing the first two practices this week with hamstring and back injuries, returning only on a limited basis Friday.

Washington has its own injuries, with Terry McLaurin out for the season and Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw, and Jer'Zhan Newton all out on the defensive line, but the Commanders have the healthier quarterback and the better recent form at that position. Jayden Daniels was a full participant Wednesday and Thursday despite a left elbow injury, finished the week without a game designation, and had an excellent outing in Washington's 23-17 loss to San Francisco last week. Washington is averaging 21.5 points per game in Daniels' starts this season, and Philadelphia's defense failed to record a sack or quarterback hit against Dak Prescott on Monday. Week 1 was close, a 24-22 Philadelphia win, but that was with Hurts under center, and this rematch is a different matchup entirely. Expect Daniels to move the ball at home and Washington to pull away.

Jim's Play: 264. Commanders

Jacksonville is rested, at home, and facing a Colts team that is falling apart. The Jaguars are 10-point favorites Sunday at 10:00 a.m. PT at EverBank Stadium on CBS, coming off a bye for their first true home game in over a month, while Indianapolis arrives on a three-game losing streak after managing just 218 yards in a 16-10 loss at Minnesota. Trevor Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes against four interceptions, while Daniel Jones has seven interceptions against four touchdowns, and Jacksonville's defense has already picked off seven passes. With Colts corner Justin Walley out and Indianapolis having already traded away veterans, Jacksonville should pull away late.

Jim’s Free Play: 250. Jaguars

Villanova and Notre Dame tip off Sunday at 6:30 a.m. PT at Palazzo dello Sport in Rome, on FOX.. This is not a track meet waiting to happen: Villanova ranked 302nd in adjusted tempo last season and Notre Dame 252nd, after Notre Dame ranked 313th and 334th in the two seasons before that. Both teams are also projected to rank in the bottom 115 in pace this season, with Notre Dame likely in the bottom 50.

A season opener with two rebuilt rosters only reinforces that. Villanova returns just Tyler Perkins and Matt Hodge as real holdovers from a 24-win team, and Notre Dame lost its three leading scorers, so both offenses are still learning each other in a real game, in a small 3,500-seat gym in Rome, on an early-morning body clock for the players. Villanova's defense is the other half of the under case: the Wildcats allowed just 71.2 points per game last season while averaging 77.1 themselves. Notre Dame, meanwhile, finished 13-18 last season and was picked 16th in the 18-team ACC preseason poll, so this is not a team built to trade baskets with a Big East contender on a neutral floor.

Expect long possessions, a feeling-out first half, and a game that stays in the 130s even if Villanova pulls away late, with the clock doing most of the work for the under.

Jim's Play: 751. Villanova / Notre Dame UNDER