Jim Feist – Sports Handicapper

Seattle makes sense for a Jim Feist-style Interleague Game of the Month selection based on simply needing to do what they just did on Tuesday: win a close game with pitching and some big hits. They did that, winning the opener 3-2, and Wednesday features Bryan Woo going for Seattle against Braxton Ashcraft. Ashcraft’s 3.18 ERA suggests this won’t be a laugher, and Woo’s 0-5 record and 5.93 ERA in eight road starts is the lone worry. But Woo was excellent in his last start, bouncing back with seven shutout innings and nine strikeouts against the Orioles, so basically Seattle needs him to be more like that than the Woo we saw across his last two starts on the road.

Seattle has the edge even if you look past Woo, though. The Mariners with the advantage in team ERA (3.59 to Pittsburgh’s 4.16), and Seattle is listed as 41-39 versus Pittsburgh’s 39-40 heading into Wednesday’s game. That’s notable because if Ashcraft matches Woo pitch-for-pitch early on, Seattle has the profile of the club that should win if it’s a lower-scoring affair. Seattle also has 100 home runs to Pittsburgh’s 94, so they have just a touch more pop in their lineup than Pittsburgh, which is key when playing in a home ballpark where one swing can change the complexion of any matchup.

Speaking of Seattle’s lineup, it got a jolt with Randy Arozarena being activated from the injured list. Arozarena entered Wednesday hitting .291 with seven homers, 33 RBIs and 19 steals, and is now another bat to protect Cal Raleigh. Seattle also got exactly what they wanted from their bats in the opener, with Cal Raleigh and Cole Young driving in runs to secure the win, and are riding a two-game winning streak into Wednesday. Pittsburgh, conversely, does not have Konnor Griffin on their active roster due to an injury issue, though he only started a rehab assignment on Wednesday, he was placed on the injured list due to an elbow/forearm injury. Couple that with Seattle boasting the better overall pitching staff, healthier lineup heading into this one and having already won Game 1 for momentum and you have reasons why they should get the win in game 2.

Jim's Play: 925. Mariners (IL Game of the Month)

The under feels like a great play on Wednesday after Shota Imanaga was locked in as the Cubs starter against Sean Manaea and the Mets. Once you know its Imanaga and not just some TBD name floating around, this stops being a sneaky pitching unknown and turns into a favorable lefty-on-lefty matchup where both guys should be able to keep runs off the board. Imanaga offers Chicago so much more stability than your average TBD moniker while Manaea has been muzzy enough to keep New York in these types of games lately. Just getting away from bombs being hit every other inning is huge upgrade over what we saw from both teams on Tuesday.

The series opener is also in New York so you’re also getting a bit of a second game pitch count effect. This is the second game of a split doubleheader which typically equals weaker bats across the board, thinner lineups, and managers being cautious with bench players after already using them at some point during game one. High-powered offenses have hit mediocre at-bats in spots like this before, especially if this one starts getting deep into the evening. Citi Field also doesn’t do much to hurt you when good starters go head to head like we have here.

Last but not least, you have to realize Tuesday’ game shouldnt scare you off the under. That was a lot of runs simply because Kodai Senga got hammered early and neither team pitched well. This game has entirely different circumstances with Imanaga’s superior command profile and Manaea being able to keep pace for at least a few innings. If both starters do their job through the first five or six, Ill take my chances with this staying inside and low.

Jim's Play: 903. Cubs/Mets UNDER

Golden State has every reason to believe they can cover the spread and make a legitimate run at the outright upset, because that number tells you the game should already be close. Atlanta is a small road favorite here on Wednesday. This isn’t the profile of a game where Golden State needs some sort of miracle to win. It’s the profile of a home underdog that’s very much in games if a couple swing areas break their way.

The first reason to like the Valkyries revolves around floor location and defense. Golden State is 7-3 at home while Atlanta is 6-2 on the road, so both teams have done well, but the Valkyries have proven much tougher playing in San Francisco. Perhaps more importantly, Golden State is allowing just 79.4 points per game to Atlanta’ s 83.3, so even though the Dream have a higher overall scoring number, the Valkyries have a clear defensive edge in this matchup. If Golden State can slow Atlanta down and make this a half-court game, instead of allowing them to get out in transition, both the spread becomes very attainable and the moneyline becomes attractive.

Golden State also gets a fairly clean injury report to work with. Atlanta is dealing with notable absences in Aaliyah Nye and Brionna Jones, while Golden State’s injury report is much cleaner with only rookie Iliana Rupert ruled out for the season. Depth and frontcourt stability are huge for short underdogs because those are often the things that swing close games. Atlanta has been playing hotter, but will Golden State’s defense show those cracks when it misses rotation players on the road.

The Valkyries also have the lead scoring necessary to pull off an upset. Gabby Williams is putting up a career-high 16.3 points per game while shooting 37.8% from three so far this season, her first with Golden State. If she can provide efficient scoring inside and outside, and Golden State gets enough secondary creation from Veronica Burton and the rest of the backcourt, the Valkyries have enough shooters to keep pace with Atlanta. That’s huge because Atlanta has been red-hot on offense, but Golden State has the profile of a team that can flip late as a home dog with a proven lead scorer and defensive advantages.

For the outright win, Golden State simply has to rebound from Sunday’s dreadful shooting performance against the Las Vegas Aces. They were just 5-of-30 from three and struggled to create anything off the dribble against A’ja Wilson and Sydney Colson. Defend like they normally do (they rank top 10 in opponent %), shoot like they are actually capable of shooting and enjoy home floor advantage and Golden State can cover and win outright. I like the Valkyries plus the points and expect them to keep it close, with a very real chance that they pull the upset in a game I view as closer than Vegas thinks.

Jim's Play: 650. GS Valkyries

Mexico should be favored to win this Group A finale for several reasons. For starters, Mexico has mostly earned it through the first two games. Mexico has six points, two wins, and zero goals against as reasons why they have already won Group A, and I agree. Mexico dominated both South Africa and South Korea while playing stingy defense. Mexico will also be playing at home where it has another advantage in the crowd at Azteca. Czech coach Miroslav Koubek was not shy about Mexico’s home-field advantage telling reporters that it “will be difficult to play against Mexico at this stadium.”

Likewise, this matchup is favorable because Czechia has struggled to close out games. The Czechs lost 2-1 to South Korea after taking the lead and drew 1-1 with South Africa despite another opener. Dropping points from winning positions in two straight games will not bode well against a Mexico team that has been far more disciplined than what Czechia has faced so far. This Mexico team has yet to be broken down at all, so if Czechia gets behind AGAIN, there’s a good chance they’ll have to play with more space than they’re accustomed to.

Lastly, Mexico has a reason to prove something still. Head coach Javier Aguirre told reporters that he wants to see Mexico play with more consistency and discipline for 90 minutes. Aguirre is still looking for answers despite Mexico’s perfect start, so we should probably expect him to continue pushing players until he finds the right combination. Aguirre is not making sentimental decisions when it comes to finalizing his lineup, so even if he rotates a few spots he should still field a competitive team that he thinks can win.

Expect Mexico to grind out another victory while looking more balanced than Czechia. The way Mexico wins is by playing with patience and allowing Czechia to make a mistake. Mexico has the better defense, better crowd support, and is playing a team that can’t keep leads. All recipe for a Mexico controlled game as time passes. I'm taking Mexico to win here on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 225217. Mexico

Morocco should certainly have enough goals in them to cover here even with something to play for. Morocco sits on four points after a 1-1 draw with Brazil and a victory over Scotland, while head coach Mohamed Ouahbi said a win over Haiti would put them on seven points and set up a legitimate opportunity to finish above Brazil in the group. Equally notable, he suggested Morocco will still play their strongest available lineup. That is key for a 2-goal handicap because there is no sense they are just going to roll over here or rotate heavily while this match still matters.

The line also leans towards Morocco when we look at the matchup. Haiti are already eliminated after losing their first two matches to Scotland and Brazil. More specifically, they lost 1-0 to Scotland while getting blown out 3-0 vs Brazil. Morocco meanwhile have shown by grabbing a point against Brazil that they can hang with top competition, and they have generally been harder to score on than Haiti. If Brazil could score three goals against Haiti, Morocco should have every opportunity to hit a 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 type score if they dominate possession and capitalize on early chances.

Really the biggest factor in favor of this angle is how the game will play once it begins. Haiti’s own head coach said his team will be looking to secure their first-ever points at a World Cup, captain Johny Placide is retiring after this match, which means they have both competitive reasons and emotional reasons to play and attack from the opening whistle. Haiti will have every incentive to stay in the match, but that could work against them if they give Morocco an early goal. The bigger obstacle for Morocco might actually be the other way around: if they fail to score early, they could find themselves in a defensive chess match against a Haitian side instructed to sit deep and survive.

As it stands my I see Morocco controling this game, wear Haiti down, and enter the 3-0 final score range.

Jim's Play: 225210. Morocco -2 goals