Jim Feist – Sports Handicapper

Expect an offensive shootout in this game today as two top offenses collide. Utah State is ranked 11th in offense and has a redzone efficiency rating of 76%. They have been in the redzone 56 times this season and scored 37 TD's. North Texas is ranked 15th and has a 73% redzone efficiency with 59 redzone trips and 37 TD's. These teams are very evenly matched when it comes to offense. One issue here is that the Utah State Aggies haven't done well against winning teams, evidenced by their 4-15 ATS the last 19 times. They are also slowed a bit on the grass, as they have covered just three of the last 10 on the real stuff. Meanwhile, North Texas Mean Green is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. These teams have a bit of history and the dog has covered five of the last seven meetings. Utah State laying 7.5-points is way too much. These teams are evenly matched and I'm taking the points here today. Play North Texas.

 Fresno State ended their season with a big win over Boise State, 19-16 as 2.5-point dogs. The Bulldogs won their last three games after a previous loss to Boise State back in November. Fresno has the 44th ranked offense in the country with a nice 80.5% redzone efficiency. They have been in the redzone 52 times this season with 38 TD's and nine FG's. Fresno has one of the best defenses in the country, ranked 17th. The defense has only allowed nine TD's in the redzone this season. Only Mississippi State has allowed less. Arizona State has the 48th ranked offense in the country with a 70.8% redzone efficiency. They have only been in the redzone 46 times with 27 TD's and 13 FG's. Big difference in these teams is on defense where the Sun Devils are ranked 70th and have allowed 24 TD's in 43 trips. Compare that to just the nine TD's Fresno has allowed. Arizona State has not been a good bowl covering team, evidenced by their 2-7 ATS their last nine bowl games. Fresno State is 26-7-1 ATS their last 34 overall games and 16-5 ATS their last 21 vs a winning team. I'm taking the better defensive team here today and that's Fresno State.

The 8-5 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders take on the 10-2 Appalachian Sate Mountaineers here today in the New Orleans Bowl. I'm taking Middle Tennessee State here for two simple reasons. You can make a case statistically for either team. However, MTSU is getting a touchdown and I just think that's too much to give their senior QB Brent Stockstill. Stockstill has over 12,000 yards in his college career and plays for his dad, who you know he wants to get this last ever win together for him. Stockstill should be a high draft pick in the NFL this coming year. App State will also be without their head coach Scott Satterfield, who has moved on to the head coaching job at Louisville. Just too many intangibles for Middle Tenn State here today. I'm taking the dog in this one.

Rutgers brings a 5-4 record into today's game at Seton Hall. The Scarlet Knights have lost three straight games and are 1-2 ATS their last three. The Seton Hall Pirates are also 5-4 S/U as they come into this game. Just three games left until they enter conference play. The Pirates have won two-straight games and are coming off a big home win over Kentucky, 84-83 in OT as 7-point dogs. That could be an issue here for the Pirates. Seton Hall could be in for a big letdown today. The Scarlet Knights are 14-6-1 ATS their last 21 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. My number has this game closer to a pick and with that big Kentucky win, look for a Seton Hall letdown today. Play Rutgers.

 Middle Tennessee State having a rough go of it thus far this season at 3-7 S/U and 0-8 ATS. That's right the Blue Raiders have yet to cover a spread in eight tries this season. In addition, they are 0-6 ATS in their last six away games. They are coming off a home drubbing at the hands of Murray State, 42-64 as 4.5-point dogs. Toledo off to a very good start this year at 9-1 S/U and 5-4 ATS. The Rockets only loss coming at Wright State back in mid-November, 74-84. The oddsmakers made Toledo about a 14-point chalk here. My numbers say that is way too low. Toledo should have not trouble covering this spread on Saturday. Play Toledo.

A pair of teams with one loss each meet here on Saturday as Cincinnati plays at Miss State. Cincinnati is 9-1 S/U and 6-4 ATS. The Bearcats only loss so far came on opening day when they lost at home to Ohio State, 56-64 as 4.5-point favorites. Since then, it's been nine straight wins including victories over UNLV, Ole Miss and last game vs Xavier, 62-47. Miss State is 8-1 S/U and 4-5 ATS. The Bulldogs have won five straight after their only loss to Arizona State, 67-72. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they have not done all that well vs the numbers, going 2-4 ATS in their last six games. My numbers have this game a toss-up, but the oddsmakers made Miss State a 5-point favorite. I'm taking the points here with Cincinnati.

Reason: Boardwalk Classic here from Atlantic City, NJ. The 8-1 North Carolina State Wolfpack takes on the 5-4 Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State has lost two of their last three games and is coming off a win over Colgate, 76-65. However, the failed to cover the 15-point spread in that game. They have lost three straight to the spread and four of their last five games. NC State has just one loss and that came at the hands of Wisconsin, 75-79. The Wolfpack did cover that game though and has covered three straight and six of eight. NC State just 3.5-point favorite here today. My numbers have this game as a 12-point NC State tilt. I have to go with my own in this spot. I'm taking NC State.

 Denver looked like a team poised at a chance to run the table for the rest of the season. Then they hit the 49ers last week and lost 14-20. Now they have the Browns today and then finish up at Oakland and at home vs the Chargers. The loss last week snapped a three-game spread win streak for Denver. The Broncos have not been good at home cover spreads of late, evidenced by their 3-7-1 ATS mark in their last 11 at Mile High. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games. The Browns pulled out another win last week, with a home victory over the Panthers, 26-20. That makes three wins in the club's last four games. Both teams ranked right about the same on offense with Denver 15th and Cleveland 16th. Neither team's defense all that good this year, Denver ranked 24th and Cleveland at 31st. I have to think Denver is deflated after losing a game they should have won last week. Cleveland just seems to be happy winning these days. I'm taking the points here today with the Browns.