John Ryan Predictive Playbook Betting Picks

Devils vs Hurricanes
7-Unit bet on the Devils priced as a 150-underdog.

The following NHL betting algorithm has produced a 33-21 SU record (61%) winning bets that have averaged a 115-underdog bet resulting in a 27% ROI and a $27,420 profit for the Dime Bettor.

Bet on road teams that have allowed no more than a single goal in each of their last two games.

The total is 5.5.

The opponent scored no more than a single goal in their previous game.

The opponent lost their previous two games by 2 or more goals in each one.

If the game is in the playoffs, these road teams have gone an impressive 8-3 for 73% winning bets.

Blue Jays vs Yankees
7-Unit bet on the Yankees priced as a 135 favorite.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 71-36 record for 66% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are: The total priced at 8.5 or more runs. The team we are betting on is averaging four or more walks per game (Yankees). The team’s last two opponents scored three or fewer runs in each game. The game is the first game of the series. If the game is a divisional matchup, our team has gone 28-13 for 68% winning bets.

Lakers vs Wolves
7-Unit bet on the UNDER 205.5 points.

The following NBA betting algorithm has gone 24-12 Under for 67% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are: Bet the Under in the playoffs. The current series is just starting or is tied. The home team is averaging 110 or more PPG in the current season. The home team held their previous opponent to fewer than 100 points in their previous game. If the total is priced at 215 or fewer points, the Under has gone 13-6 for 69% winning bets since 2018.

Celtics vs Magic
5-Unit bet on the Celtics priced as a 4.5-point favorite.
For a pizza money bet I like the OVER team total for the Celtics.

The following NBA betting algorithm has gone 65-18 SU (78%) and 57-26 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are:

Bet on favorites between 3.5 and 7.5 points.

The favorite has seen their last three games play Under by 30 or more points.

The game takes place in the second half of the season and playoffs.

The total is priced between 225 and 234.5 points.

If in the playoffs and it is game 3, our favorites have gone 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets.

Date: April 25, 2025
Location: Kia Center, Orlando, FL
Series Context: Celtics lead 2-0
Key Note: Jayson Tatum is ruled out for Game 3 due to a right wrist bone bruise sustained in Game 1.

As the Boston Celtics head into Game 3 against the Orlando Magic at the Kia Center, they aim to take a commanding 3-0 series lead in their Eastern Conference first-round matchup. Despite the absence of All-Star forward Jayson Tatum, Boston’s depth, defensive versatility, and league-leading three-point shooting position them for a double-digit victory. Coming off a 109-100 Game 2 win, where Jaylen Brown’s 36 points and a suffocating defense held Orlando to 100 points, the Celtics are favored to exploit the Magic’s offensive limitations and capitalize on key matchups. This preview highlights three critical team matchups, supported by advanced analytics, that can propel Boston to a 10+ point win tonight.

Game Context

The Celtics, who finished the regular season with a 61-21 record and the NBA’s best offense (122.2 points per 100 possessions), have dominated the series so far. Their Game 1 blowout (121-94) showcased their three-point prowess (22-of-40), while Game 2 demonstrated their ability to grind out a win without Tatum, thanks to Brown’s heroics and a 15-turnover forced defensive effort. Orlando, with a 47-35 record and the league’s fourth-best defense (108.4 defensive rating), relies heavily on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner but struggles offensively (23rd in offensive rating at 110.5). The Magic’s 0-4 road playoff record in the Banchero-Wagner era and their inability to match Boston’s firepower make a double-digit Celtics win plausible, especially if Boston leverages the following matchups.

Key Team Matchups and Advanced Analytics for a Celtics Win

Celtics’ Perimeter Offense vs. Magic’s Perimeter Defense

Why It Matters: Boston led the NBA with 1,457 three-pointers made (42.5% of their field goal attempts) and a 38.8% three-point percentage during the regular season. Without Tatum’s 37.6% three-point shooting, players like Jaylen Brown (35.4% 3P), Derrick White (39.6% 3P), and Sam Hauser (42.4% 3P) must exploit Orlando’s perimeter defense, which ranked 10th in opponent three-point percentage allowed (35.8%).

Advanced Analytics:

Celtics’ Three-Point Efficiency: Boston’s 1.21 points per possession (PPP) on catch-and-shoot threes (Synergy) is the league’s best, compared to Orlando’s 1.08 PPP allowed on defended catch-and-shoot attempts (top 10). In Game 1, Boston’s 22-of-40 three-point shooting generated 66 points, a 1.65 PPP clip that overwhelmed Orlando.

Magic’s Defensive Rotations: Orlando’s defense has a 12.4% forced turnover rate on perimeter plays (top 5), but their closeout speed ranks 18th (per Second Spectrum), leaving shooters open on 28% of contested threes. Boston’s 4.2 open threes per game (15+ feet of space) in the series can exploit this.

Path to Victory: If Brown and White combine for 5+ threes (as they did in Game 2: 6-of-11), and Hauser/Payton Pritchard add 3-4 bench threes, Boston can generate 36-45 points from deep, forcing Orlando to stretch their defense. Targeting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2.8 deflections per game) with off-ball screens will create open looks, boosting Boston’s effective field goal percentage (eFG%) to 58%+ (top 3 in playoffs).

Prediction: Boston hits 14-16 threes at 40%+, outscoring Orlando by 15-20 points from beyond the arc, a key driver of a double-digit margin.

Celtics’ Defensive Switching vs. Magic’s Isolation Offense

Why It Matters: Orlando’s offense relies heavily on Banchero (24.2% usage rate) and Wagner (22.1% usage rate), who combine for 44.3 points per game in the series. Boston’s switch-heavy defense, anchored by Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, has disrupted Orlando’s flow, forcing 14.5 turnovers per game (19.2% turnover rate, 3rd-worst in playoffs).

Advanced Analytics:

Celtics’ Defensive Versatility: Boston’s 1.02 PPP allowed on isolation plays (top 5, Synergy) neutralizes Banchero’s 0.98 PPP in isos (46th percentile). In Game 2, Boston held Banchero to 26 points on 9-of-20 shooting (0.87 PPP) by switching Al Horford onto him, limiting his post-ups.

Magic’s Offensive Stagnation: Orlando’s 0.89 PPP in half-court sets (28th in playoffs) drops to 0.82 PPP against switches (per Second Spectrum). Their 14.7% assist rate on made field goals in the series (lowest in playoffs) reflects poor ball movement against Boston’s 1.8 steals per game on switches.

Path to Victory: Boston’s ability to switch 1-4 with Holiday, White, and Brown will force Banchero and Wagner into inefficient isos (sub-0.90 PPP). Doubling Banchero in the post with Horford and Kristaps Porzingis will create 3-4 extra turnovers, leading to 8-12 transition points (Boston’s 1.28 PPP in transition, top 2). Limiting Orlando to 40% field goal shooting (as in Game 1: 39.3%) keeps their scoring under 100 points, setting up a 10+ point cushion.

Prediction: Boston forces 15+ turnovers, converting them into 20+ points, while holding Orlando to 95-100 points, ensuring a double-digit lead.

Celtics’ Frontcourt Dominance vs. Magic’s Interior Defense

Why It Matters: Kristaps Porzingis (20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds per game) gives Boston a mismatch against Orlando’s frontcourt of Wendell Carter Jr. and Jonathan Isaac, who struggle to defend stretch bigs. Porzingis’ ability to score in the post and from mid-range (46.3% mid-range FG%) can pull Carter away from the rim, opening driving lanes.

Advanced Analytics:

Porzingis’ Post-Up Efficiency: Porzingis’ 1.12 PPP on post-ups (82nd percentile, Synergy) exploits Carter’s 0.98 PPP allowed in the post (38th percentile). In Game 2, Porzingis scored 10 of his 18 points in the paint, generating 1.25 PPP on post touches.

Magic’s Paint Vulnerability: Orlando’s 46.8 points allowed in the paint per game (8th in regular season) has ballooned to 52.0 in the series, as Boston’s 1.18 PPP on drives (top 5) overwhelms Isaac’s 1.4 blocks per game. Boston’s 14.0 second-chance points per game (playoff-high) capitalize on Carter’s 8.2 rebounding percentage (average).

Path to Victory: Porzingis’ post-ups and pick-and-pop threes (38.1% 3P) will force Carter into foul trouble (3.5 fouls per game in series), weakening Orlando’s rim protection. Boston’s 1.15 PPP on offensive rebounds (top 3) will generate 12-15 second-chance points, while Porzingis and Horford combine for 8-10 defensive rebounds to limit Orlando’s 10.8 second-chance points per game. This rebounding edge (Boston: 44.5 RPG vs. Orlando: 40.2 RPG) ensures extra possessions for a 10+ point win.

Prediction: Porzingis scores 20+ points with 10+ rebounds, Boston outscores Orlando 50-40 in the paint, and their 12-15 second-chance points pad the margin.

Strategic Keys for a Double-Digit Win

Maximize Three-Point Volume: Boston must attempt 35+ threes (as in Game 1: 40 attempts), targeting a 40%+ clip to generate 42+ points from deep. Pritchard and Hauser’s bench shooting (combined 41.8% 3P in regular season) will be critical against Orlando’s second unit.

Force Turnovers in Transition: By generating 15+ turnovers (as in Game 2), Boston can score 20-25 transition points at 1.28 PPP, exploiting Orlando’s 1.12 PPP allowed in transition (22nd in playoffs).

Control the Glass: A +5 rebounding margin (Boston: 44.5 RPG vs. Orlando: 40.2 RPG) will yield 12-15 second-chance points, while limiting Orlando to under 10, creating a 10-point swing.

Neutralize Banchero’s Efficiency: Holding Banchero to sub-45% shooting (as in Game 2: 9-of-20) via switches and doubles will cap Orlando’s offense at 95-100 points, below their 104.2 playoff average.

Orlando’s Challenges

The Magic’s 23rd-ranked offense (110.5 offensive rating) struggles against Boston’s second-ranked defense (108.2 defensive rating). Their 34.2% three-point shooting in the series (vs. 34.7% regular season) limits their ability to keep pace, especially if Gary Harris (33.3% 3P) and Cory Joseph (31.0% 3P) remain cold. Orlando’s reliance on Banchero and Wagner (49.2% of playoff points) makes them predictable, and their 14.7% assist rate (lowest in playoffs) reflects poor ball movement against Boston’s switches. Without a breakout from role players or a 50-point combined effort from their stars, Orlando faces an uphill battle.

Prediction

The Celtics’ depth and analytics-driven approach will overpower the Magic, even without Tatum. Expect Jaylen Brown to lead with 30+ points, Kristaps Porzingis to dominate the paint, and Derrick White to anchor the defense. Boston’s 14-16 threes, 15+ forced turnovers, and +5 rebounding edge will fuel a balanced attack, while Orlando’s offense stalls below 100 points. The advanced metrics—Boston’s 1.21 PPP on threes, 1.02 PPP allowed on isos, and 1.15 PPP on second-chance opportunities—point to a decisive edge.

Final Score Prediction: Celtics 110, Magic 95 (+15) and is not a recommendation to bet the OVER. For a pizza money bet I like the OVER team total for the Celtics.

Pacers vs Bucks
10-Unit bet on the Bucks priced as 5-point favorites.
The following NBA betting algorithm has gone 34-10 SU (77%) and 29-14-1 ATS (67%) record since 2003. The requirements are:

Bet on favorites between 2.5 and 7.5 points in the playoffs.

The game number is 3 of the current series.

The favorite lost and failed to cover the spread in games 1 and 2.

The Milwaukee Bucks, trailing 0-2 in their first-round playoff series against the No. 4 seed Indiana Pacers, return to Fiserv Forum for a critical Game 3. After dropping Game 1 (125-108) and Game 2 (123-115) in Indianapolis, the No. 5 seed Bucks face a must-win scenario to claw back into the series. Despite the Pacers’ dominance, Milwaukee’s home-court energy, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s brilliance, and key adjustments bolstered by Damian Lillard’s return position them for a much-needed victory—potentially by 10+ points—to make the series 2-1. Below, we explore the advanced analytics supporting a Bucks win and outline how they’ll secure a convincing victory.

Key Advanced Analytics Supporting a Bucks Win

The Bucks’ path to a Game 3 victory hinges on leveraging their home dominance, Antetokounmpo’s matchup advantage, and improved defensive adjustments. Advanced metrics highlight why Milwaukee can rebound and win decisively:

Home-Court Defensive Prowess

Regular Season: Milwaukee posted a 27-14 home record with a +6.7 net rating at Fiserv Forum (offensive rating 119.2, defensive rating 112.5), compared to +3.9 on the road. Their defensive rating at home (112.5) ranked top-10 league-wide.

Playoffs: In Game 2, the Bucks showed late-game defensive resilience, embarking on a 13-0 run to cut a 15-point deficit to 2 (115-113) with 2:33 left, forcing 15 Pacers turnovers (8 steals).

Impact: At home, Milwaukee’s crowd fuels their intensity, amplifying their ability to generate stops. Their 38.7% three-point shooting (NBA-best) and 47% opponent field goal defense at home will stifle Indiana’s high-octane offense (123.3 PPG, 50.7% FG), which relies on rhythm.

Antetokounmpo’s Dominance vs. Pacers

Regular Season: Giannis averaged 30.0 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 7.5 APG, and 1.3 BPG on 64.9% FG against Indiana, including 37 points (10 rebounds, 11 assists) and 34 points (10 rebounds) in two wins.

Playoffs: In Game 2, Antetokounmpo delivered 34 points, 18 rebounds, and 7 assists, shooting 15-for-22 (68.2%). Against Pascal Siakam (47 points allowed on 67% FG in 130 possessions) and Myles Turner (38 points on 56% FG in 39 possessions), Giannis remains unstoppable.

Impact: Indiana lacks a true answer for Antetokounmpo, who exploits their 29th-ranked offensive rebounding (9.2 per game) with second-chance points (14.5 PPG in series). His paint dominance (22 points in paint, Game 2) and playmaking will create open threes for teammates, stretching Indiana’s defense thin.

Lillard’s Return and Perimeter Boost

Regular Season: Before his deep vein thrombosis absence (March 18), Lillard averaged 24.9 PPG and 7.1 APG with a 54.7% effective field goal percentage. In four games vs. Indiana, he averaged 25.5 PPG and 8.5 APG, including 24 points (13 assists) in a November win.

Playoffs: In Game 2, Lillard’s return (first game since March 18) sparked a late rally, with a clutch three-pointer cutting the deficit to 2. His presence forces Tyrese Haliburton (21 points, 12 assists in Game 2) to expend energy defending, reducing Indiana’s playmaking efficiency.

Impact: Lillard’s 41.6% three-point shooting (via Gary Trent Jr.’s role) and pick-and-roll mastery with Antetokounmpo exploit Indiana’s 28th-ranked pick-and-roll defense (15.2 PPP allowed). His scoring (projected 20+ points) will complement Giannis, overwhelming Indiana’s perimeter defenders.

Three-Point Shooting Edge

Regular Season: Milwaukee led the NBA in three-point shooting (38.7%), with Kevin Porter Jr. (40.8% 3P), Gary Trent Jr. (41.6%), and A.J. Green (42.7%) providing floor spacing. Indiana allowed 36.5% from three (20th-ranked).

Playoffs: In Game 2, the Bucks shot 12-for-30 (40%) from three, with Porter Jr. and Bobby Portis hitting timely shots. Indiana’s 6-for-21 (28.6%) from deep in Game 2 exposed their reliance on volume (13.9 3PA per game).

Impact: Milwaukee’s three-point barrage (projected 14-for-35) will punish Indiana’s doubling of Antetokounmpo, as seen in their 13-for-21 second-half shooting in 2024’s Game 3. Indiana’s inconsistent three-point defense (32.8% allowed since March) can’t keep pace.

Transition Defense Improvement

Regular Season: Post-All-Star break, Milwaukee cut opponent fast-break points to 12.2 per game (from 14.3), ranking top-5. They limited Indiana’s transition offense (23-4 when Pacers scored 20+ fast-break points) in three of four meetings.

Playoffs: In Game 2, Indiana’s 14 fast-break points were below their 16.8 PPG average, as Milwaukee’s zone defense disrupted Haliburton’s pick-and-rolls (11/14 FG to start Game 2).

Impact: With Andre Jackson Jr. and Trent Jr. hounding Haliburton (1.2 turnovers per game post-All-Star), Milwaukee will limit Indiana’s 29.2 APG (3rd-ranked) and fast-break scoring, forcing a half-court game where Antetokounmpo thrives.

How the Bucks Will Win by 10+ Points

Milwaukee’s game plan in Game 3 will capitalize on their home advantage, Antetokounmpo’s dominance, and Lillard’s offensive spark to secure a double-digit victory:

Giannis Unleashed in the Paint: Antetokounmpo (projected 35 points, 15 rebounds, 8 assists) will attack Siakam and Turner early, drawing fouls (7.5 FTA per game vs. Pacers) and creating kick-out opportunities. His 68% FG against Indiana’s frontcourt will lead to 20+ paint points, collapsing their defense and setting up Porter Jr. (3-for-6 3P projected) and Trent Jr. (4-for-8 3P) for open threes. A 15-4 run in Q1 (like their 13-0 run in Game 2) will build a 12-point lead.

Lillard’s Second-Half Surge: Lillard, shaking off rust, will exploit Haliburton’s defensive limitations (0.7 steals per game) in pick-and-rolls with Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. His projected 22 points (5-for-10 3P) and 6 assists will fuel a 10-0 third-quarter run, pushing the lead to 18. Indiana’s 32.8% three-point defense since March can’tcontain Milwaukee’s 38.7% shooting from deep.

Defensive Adjustments and Turnovers: Doc Rivers’ zone defense, used effectively in Game 2 (59.1% FG allowed in Q1 dropped to 38.1% in Q4), will clog driving lanes for Haliburton (8-for-19 FG in Game 2) and Andrew Nembhard (6-for-10). Trent Jr. and Jackson Jr. will generate 10 turnovers (3 steals each), leading to 15 fast-break points. Indiana’s 13.2 turnovers per game will be exploited in transition, mirroring Milwaukee’s 9-2 steal advantage in Game 2.

Home Crowd Momentum: Fiserv Forum’s energy (Bucks 21-12 ATS at home) will disrupt Indiana’s 21-20 road record and 2-7 playoff road mark in 2024. An early 10-point lead (e.g., 32-22 by Q1’s end, as in November’s 129-117 win) will quiet Pacers’ momentum. Milwaukee’s 29.9 first-quarter points (top-5) will spark a 40-point opening frame.

Bench Production and Depth: Porter Jr. (12 points, 5 assists in Game 1) and Portis (3-for-5 3P in Game 2) will outshine Indiana’s bench (T.J. McConnell: 9.1 PPG). Milwaukee’s +6.7 net rating with Portis on the floor (vs. Indiana’s +4.2 with McConnell) ensures they maintain leads during starter rest periods. A 12-point fourth-quarter lead will balloon to 15+ as reserves close out.