John Ryan Predictive Playbook Betting Picks

Blue jackets vs Penguins
7-unit bet on the Blue Jackets priced at +100 or higher underdog. If the price makes tham a favorite, then it is a good bet at not more than –115 using the money line.

The following NHL betting algorithm has gone 207-175 SU (54%) that has averaged a +110 wager resulting in a solid 15% ROI and a $83,000 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $4,150 profit for the $50 per game bettor since 2010. The requirements are: Bet against home favorites between –100 and –150 using the money line. The favorite is coming off two consecutive OVER results. They are allowing 2.85 or more goals per game. The game occurs in the second half of the regular season.

Nuggets vs Blazers
7-Unit bet on the Blazers priced as 1.5-point favorites.

The following NBA Basketball betting algorithm I s a variation of the first one and has produced a 58-16 SU record and a 50-22-2 ATS mark good for 69.4%% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are: •Bet on favorites in the second half of the season. •The favorite has won 40 to 49% of their games. •The favorite has seen their last three games play Under the total by 30 or more points. If the favorite is playing on two or more days of rest they are 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2018.

North Carolina vs Mississippi
7-Unit bet on UNC priced as a 1.5-point favorite. I prefer using the money line for this betting opportunity.

The media and talking heads and even the governor of West Virginia were whining that UNC did not belong in the tournament even as a first-four=in team. Well, that team has been largely motivated by the negative press and served notice that this is a team fully capable to make a deep run in this tournament much like VCU did in 2011. This has happened almost every year with the team that is one of the last selected is bashed by the fans of those teams left out.

In UNC’s dominating win over San Diego State, they made 14 of 24 three-point shots. Teams that made 13 or more 3’s in their previous game and the current game is party of the Round of 64, have gone 14-9 SU and 14-6-2 ATS good for 70% winning bets. Teams that made 13 or more 3’s and scored 90 or more points have gone 7-2 SUATS in the NCAA Tournament. Play-in teams that won their game by 20 or more points, the game has a posted total of 150 or more points have gone 5-1 SUATS.

Alright, college hoops fans, buckle up for a wild ride in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64 as the North Carolina Tar Heels (11-seed) take on the Mississippi Rebels (6-seed) on this fine Friday, March 21, 2025! This isn’t just a game—it’s a clash of styles, a battle of wills, and, let’s be honest, a chance for UNC to flex their Tar Heel magic and waltz into the Round of 32 like they’re strolling through Chapel Hill on a spring day. Let’s break it down with some juicy matchups, a sprinkle of analytics from the wizards at Bart Torvik and KenPom, and a whole lot of reasons why UNC’s got this in the bag.

The Scene: A Southern Showdown with Swagger

Picture this: Mississippi, fresh off a solid SEC campaign, thinks they’re ready to strut into the Big Dance and send UNC packing. But hold your sweet tea, Rebels—North Carolina’s got a chip on their shoulder after snagging an 11-seed (seriously, selection committee, what’s the deal?). The Tar Heels are primed to prove they’re not just here to sip lemonade and admire the scenery—they’re here to dominate. And the numbers? Oh, they’re singing UNC’s tune louder than a banjo at a bluegrass jam.

Key Matchup #1: RJ Davis vs. Ole Miss Backcourt

Let’s start with the maestro himself, RJ Davis, UNC’s senior guard who’sbasically a walking highlight reel. This dude’s averaging over 20 points per game and shoots the three-ball like he’s got a personal vendetta against rims everywhere. Mississippi’s backcourt—led by the scrappy Jaylen Murray and Matthew Murrell—can score, sure, but they’re about to run into a buzzsaw. Davis’s quickness and ability to create his own shot will have Ole Miss defenders chasing shadows. Bart Torvik’s analytics rank UNC’s offense in the top 20 nationally for adjusted efficiency, and Davis is the engine. Ole Miss? Their defense sits at a respectable but not elite 45th per Torvik. Good luck stopping RJ when he’s feeling it—and spoiler alert, he’salways feeling it in March.

Key Matchup #2: Armando Bacot vs. The Rebel Frontcourt

Down low, it’s Armando Bacot time, folks. The big man’s a double-double machine, and he’s got the kind of old-school post game that makes you wonder if he time-traveled from the 1990s. Mississippi’s got some size with Jamarion Sharp (a 7’5” shot-blocking freak) and Moussa Cisse, but Bacot’s strength and savvy are on another level. KenPom has UNC at 12th in the nation for offensive rebounding rate—Bacot’s a big reason why. Ole Miss struggles to clean the glass (76th in defensive rebounding per KenPom), so expect Bacot to feast on second-chance buckets like it’s an all-you-can-eat buffet. Sharp might swat a few shots, but Bacot’s gonna bully his way to 15 points and 12 boards with a grin.

Key Matchup #3: UNC’s Depth vs. Ole Miss’s Thin Bench

Here’s where the Tar Heels really turn the screws. UNC’s bench is deeper than a Carolina holler—guys like Seth Trimble and Jae’Lyn Withers can step up and ball out, giving starters a breather without missing a beat. Mississippi? Their rotation’s thinner than a dime-store paperback. Torvik’s adjusted tempo metrics show UNC thrives in a fast-paced game (top 50 in pace), while Ole Miss prefers to slow it down (outside the top 100). The Tar Heels will push the tempo, wear out the Rebels’ starters, and watch their legs turn to jelly by the second half. When UNC’s fresh legs are still flying and Ole Miss is gasping, that’s when the rout begins.

The Analytics Edge: Torvik and KenPom Say “Heels Up”

Let’s get nerdy for a sec. Bart Torvik’s T-Rank system loves UNC’s overall profile—they’re 22nd nationally in his rankings, compared to Ole Miss at 34th. That gap might not seem huge but dig into the details: UNC’s adjusted offensive efficiency (top 20) outclasses Ole Miss’s (top 40), and their defensive efficiency is neck-and-neck (both in the top 50). Torvik’s game prediction model gives UNC a 58% chance to win, projecting a tight 77-75 score—but that’s being generous to the Rebels. Factor in UNC’s tournament pedigree, and this feels more like a 10-point blowout.

KenPom’s no slouch either. He’s got UNC at 19th overall and Ole Miss at 31st. The Tar Heels’ adjusted efficiency margin (+18.2) edges out Ole Miss (+15.6), and their offensive firepower (8th in adjusted offensive efficiency) is a nightmare for a Rebel defense that’s solid but not spectacular (28th). KenPom’s numbers scream “UNC controls this game”—they’re built to score in bunches and rebound missed opportunities, two things Ole Miss struggles to counter.

The X-Factor: March Madness Mojo

Let’s not forget the intangibles. North Carolina’s got that blue-blood DNA—six national titles, countless deep runs, and a coach in Hubert Davis who knows how to rally his squad. Mississippi’s got grit, but their NCAA Tournament history is more “happy to be here” than “we own this stage.” When the lights get bright, UNC shines; Ole Miss might blink.

The Verdict: Tar Heels Roll, Rebels Go Home

So, how’s this going to play out? Picture UNC jumping out to an early lead behind RJ Davis’s hot hand, Bacot owning the paint, and their bench turning it into a track meet. Ole Miss hangs around for a bit—Murray hits a couple threes, Sharp swats a shot into the stands—but by midway through the second half, the Tar Heels pull away. Final score: UNC 84, Ole Miss 70. The analytics back it up, the matchups favor it, and the vibes? Pure Carolina confidence. North Carolina punches their ticket to the Round of 32 with ease, leaving Mississippi to ponder what might’ve been. Onward and upward, Heels fans—this is just the start!

Duke vs Mount Saint Mary’s
7-Unit bet OVER 140.5 points

The top seeds in the Round of 64 that have been favored by double-digits and facing a play-in winning foe has seen the OVER go 12-5 for 71% winning bets. Many of these games see the top-seeds get out to a 20+ point lead and then reign in their starters. Given the nagging type of injuries, most notably Flagg for Duke, I fully expect to see the starters come out of the game in the second half with that 20+ point lead. When this happens, the pace becomes faster and the starters on the opposing team see an opportunity to at least play their best over the remaining part of the game.

Neither team needs this to have this happen for the OVER to be a winning bet given my predictive models have solid situational results backing the OVER. Duke is projected to score at least 84 points and have fewer turnovers. Duke is 10-1 OVER in games played this season when they have met these measures. Duke is going to use forced turnovers to generate quick scoring fast break scores. They have no reason at all to get a turnover and walk the ball up the court given the monumental athletic advantages they possess in this game.

Iowa State vs Lipscomb
7-unit bet on Iowa State priced as a 14.5-point favorite.

As we saw with Auburn yesterday, many times in the round of 64, big favorites in the top 3 seeds tend to start out slowly. Even St. Johns started sluggishly but gained their footing and won easily. At the half you could have bet St. Johns as a 12-point favorite. So, consider betting 5-Unit preflop on ISU and then look to get them during the first half of action at a price of 7.5 or fewer points or if Lipscomb would rip off 10-unanswered points. The downside is that none of these may happen, but it also implies that your 5-Unit bet is winning ATS. The goal is to minimize the risk of loss and being able to win 3-units while losing 5.5 units (juice) is far better than losing 8.8 units. (Obviously).

Number 3 seeds in the Round of 64 have gone 27-1 SU and 19-9 ATS good for 68% winning bets since 2007 when the total has been less than 150 points, and they are priced as a double-digit favorite.Also, in games where the 3-seed was tied or trailed at the half has seen them go on to win by an average 10 points. So, any half time betting line for ISU as a 6.5 or fewer point favorite has excellent value.

St. Mary’s vs Vanderbilt
5-Unit bet on St. Mary’s priced as a 4-point favorite.

The following NCAA basketball betting algorithm has produced a 52-27-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2005. The requirements are:

Bet on a favorite of not more than 4.5 points playing at a neutral site.

The game takes place in the postseason

The total is between 130 and 139.5 points.

Our team has seen the total play UNDER by 60 or more points over their previous 10 games.

If the game takers place in the NCAA Tournament these teams have gone 9-2 SUATS good for 82% winning bets.