John Ryan Predictive Playbook Betting Picks

Diamondbacks vs Yankees
7-Unit bet on the Snakes priced as a 120-underdog.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 69-68 record good for 50% winning bets but by averaging a 143-underdog bet has produced a 17% ROI and a $34,820 profit for the Dime Bettor. The requirements are:

Bet on a NL road underdog.

That do is scoring an average of 4.75 or more RPG.

The opponent is from the AL.

The opponent is scoring an average of 4.75 or more RPG.

Starting Pitcher Capsules

Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks, RHP)

Background: The 29-year-old ace, acquired from the Marlins in 2019, has been Arizona’s cornerstone since his 2019 debut (2.81 ERA). A 2023 NL Cy Young third-place finisher (17-9, 3.47 ERA), Gallen’s four-seamer (94-95 mph), knuckle-curve (32.1% whiff rate), and changeup define his arsenal. Injuries limited him to 148 IP in 2024 (3.65 ERA), but his 5.2 fWAR tied Gerrit Cole.

2025 Start: Gallen’s Opening Day outing vs. the Cubs was a disaster—4.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K—yielding a 9.00 ERA. Command faltered (11 straight balls in the 2nd), and his 4.91 xFIP suggests bad luck ( BABIP .333).

Vs. Yankees: Gallen owns New York, with 12 scoreless innings across two starts (6 IP each, 2023 home and away). Judge is 0-for-5 with 2 K’s, and Bellinger’s 1-for-20 with 7 K’s. If he finds the zone, he could stifle NY’s power.

Carlos Rodón (Yankees, LHP)

Background: The 32-year-old lefty, signed to a 6-year, $162M deal in 2023, rebounded from a 2023 injury-plagued 6.85 ERA to a 2024 mark of 3.96 ERA over 175 IP (195 K). His fastball (95-97 mph) and slider (36.8% whiff rate) regained bite, though a 1.5 HR/9 allowed lingers.

2025 Start: Rodón dazzled on Opening Day vs. the Brewers—5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K—with a 1.69 ERA. His slider (9 whiffs on 15 swings) and 34 fastballs kept Milwaukee off-balance, though 2 BB hint at control risks.

Vs. Diamondbacks: Rodón is 0-3 with a 5.18 ERA in 6 starts, including 5 ER in 4.2 IP last April. Carroll (.333 BA, HR) and Marte (.286 BA) have his number, but Suárez (1-for-9) and Naylor (0-for-5) struggle. He’ll need to limit walks.

Braves vs Dodgers
5-Unit bet on the Braves priced as 190-underdogs.
2-Unit money line parlay combining the Braves and the Guardians

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 408-463 record for 47% winning bets that have averaged a 150-underdog that has resulted in a 14% ROI and a $18,770 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2004. The requirements are:

Bet on a team whose win percentage is 10 or more basisd points lower than the opponent.

The opponent has won at least 65% of their games.

The game is a matchup of non-divisional foes.

The game is not the first game of the series.

Team Breakdown and Recent Form

The Braves’ 0-6 start marks their worst opening since 1988, a season that spiraled to a 54-106 finish after an 0-10 beginning. Their vaunted offense (.276 BA, .443 SLG in 2024) has cratered, hitting .221 with a .298 OBP and a league-worst 1-for-34 with runners in scoring position through six games. Scoring just 3.5 runs per game (28th), they’ve been gutted by injuries—Ronald Acuña Jr. (knee), Spencer Strider (elbow), and Sean Murphy (rib) are sidelined—while Jurickson Profar’s PED suspension and Reynaldo López’s looming shoulder surgery (pending results) deepen the crisis. Monday’s 6-1 loss to the Dodgers highlighted their woes, with only 5 hits against Tyler Glasnow.

The Dodgers, at 7-0, are one win shy of the 1884 St. Louis Maroons’ MLB record for best start by a defending champion (8-0). Their 6.8 runs per game (3rd) and 2.33 ERA (4th) reflect a juggernaut unfazed by injuries to Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin. Shohei Ohtani (.310 BA, 54 HR in 2024), Freddie Freeman (.378 OBP), and Teoscar Hernández (.501 SLG) power an offense that’s clicked early, while Monday’s win showcased their pitching depth. LA’s +22 run differential dwarfs Atlanta’s -18, setting the stage for a mismatch.

Historical Significance of Braves’ 0-6 Start

Atlanta’s 0-6 opening is a rare stain on a franchise with 22 division titles since 1991. Only three times in their Atlanta era have they stumbled this badly out of the gate:

1988: 0-10, finished 54-106, last in NL West.

2016: 0-9, ended 68-93, 4th in NL East.

1982: 0-6, rallied to 89-73 and won NL West (lost NLCS).

An 0-7 start would be uncharted territory for the Braves, a franchise that hasn’t lost its first seven since moving to Atlanta in 1966. Since 2000, only 2 of 17 MLB teams starting 0-6 (2003 Tigers, 2016 Twins) reached the playoffs, both as sub-.500 wild cards. With the Phillies (3-1) already ahead in the NL East and a gauntlet of April foes (Padres, Yankees) looming, tonight’s game is a must-win to avoid a season-defining hole.

Historical Parallel

The 1884 St. Louis Maroons went 8-0 as defending champs, finishing 94-19. Today’s Dodgers, with a deeper roster, echo that dominance, while the Braves risk a 1988 redux without a turnaround.

Key Matchups Favoring the Braves

Bryce Elder vs. Dodgers’ Lower Order

Why It Works: Elder’s sinker-heavy approach (96-97 mph, 46.2% GB rate in 2024) thrives against groundball-prone hitters, and the Dodgers’ bottom three—Gavin Lux (.248 BA, 44.1% GB rate vs. RHP), Chris Taylor (.174 BA, 41.8% GB rate), and Tommy Edman (.247 BA, limited 2024 sample)—fit the bill. Lux’s .289 wOBA vs. RHP and Taylor’s 29.1% K% suggest Elder could navigate the 6-7-8 spots with weak contact, keeping LA’s run total in check.

Evidence: In Elder’s 2021 start vs. LA, he allowed just 2 ER over 5.0 IP, inducing 6 groundouts. If he limits damage here, Atlanta’s bullpen (e.g., Raisel Iglesias, 2.75 ERA in 2024) could hold a slim lead late.

Matt Olson vs. Blake Snell

Why It Works: Olson, despite a slow .167 BA start in 2025, has a strong track record vs. lefties like Snell (.267 BA, .477 SLG, 11 HR in 2024). His 29 HRs last year and 89.7 mph avg. exit velocity match Snell’s 39.8% hard-hit rate allowed. Olson’s 2-for-5 career mark vs. Snell, including a double, hints at a breakout.

Impact: A single extra-base hit from Olson could plate Ozzie Albies (.271 BA vs. LHP) or Michael Harris II (.295 BA), giving Atlanta a rare multi-run inning against LA’s ace.

Marcell Ozuna vs. Snell’s Slider

Why It Works: Ozuna’s .302 BA and 39 HRs in 2024 came with a .321 BA vs. lefties, and his .512 SLG against sliders (Snell’s bread-and-butter, 41.2% whiff rate) is a sleeper advantage. Snell’s debut (6.0 IP, 1 ER) showed control, but his 1.2 HR/9 allowed in 2024 opens a window. Ozuna’s .333 BA (2-for-6) with a HR vs. Snell historically backs this up.

Impact: A deep fly or homer could shift momentum, especially with Atlanta’s 1-for-34 RISP woes begging for a clutch hit.

Austin Riley vs. Dodgers Bullpen

Why It Works: If Snell exits after 6-7 innings (88 pitches in his opener), LA’s bullpen (2.01 ERA) isn’t invincible—Evan Phillips (3.68 ERA in 2024) and Daniel Hudson (4.35 ERA) have faltered vs. righties. Riley’s .275 BA and .489 SLG vs. RHP, plus a .286 BA (4-for-14) vs. Phillips, could exploit late-game matchups.

Impact: A 7th- or 8th-inning rally against a tiring reliever keeps Atlanta alive, leveraging Riley’s 27 HRs from 2024.

Situational Factors

Desperation Boost: At 0-6, the Braves face a must-win to avoid a franchise-worst 0-7 start. Historical rebounds—like the 1982 team’s 13-game win streak after 0-6—suggest a pride-fueled effort. Monday’s 6-1 loss showed fight (5 hits off Glasnow), and a rested bullpen (Iglesias, Aaron Bummer) could lock down a lead.

Snell’s Early-Season Rust: Despite a stellar debut, Snell’s 4.1 BB/9 in 2024 and 3 walks vs. San Diego hint at command lapses. Atlanta’s 8.1% BB% (12th) could draw 3-4 free passes, setting up Olson or Ozuna to capitalize.

Dodgers’ Complacency Risk: At 7-0, LA might ease off, especially with a +22 run differential already. Their 1-for-8 RISP mark on Monday shows cracks Atlanta could exploit if Elder keeps it close early.

Analytical Support

Elder’s Groundball Edge: LA’s 43.8% GB rate vs. RHP plays into Elder’s 46.2% GB rate allowed, projecting 5.0-6.0 IP with 2-3 ER if he avoids the top (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman). His 1.88 WHIP in his opener was inflated by BABIP (.381); a .300 BABIP regression favors him.

Braves’ Latent Power: Atlanta’s .288 wOBA (25th) belies a 2024 .443 SLG. Snell’s 0.9 HR/9 meets a lineup with a 1.2 HR/game potential, per last year’s 243 HRs (2nd). A 2-HR night isn’t far-fetched.

Run Expectancy: Predictive models give LA a 4.8-3.2 edge, but a 1-run game (e.g., 4-3 Braves) falls within the 28.1% upset probability, especially if Snell’s 1.2 HR/9 bites.

Rockies vs Phillies
3-Unit bet on the Phillies using the money line priced at –320.
8-Unit bet OVER the posted total of 7.5 runs.
Alternative: 6-Units OVER 7.5 runs and 2 units OVER Phillies team total.

Zack Wheeler has been stellar when priced as a huge favorite. He is 12-2 SDU for 86% winners and 10-4 for 72% winners using the –1.5 run line when favored by –250 or more in gamers started over the past five seasons. The OVER has gone 9-5 in these starts and the Phillies are scoring many multiple-run innings.

Tonight, April 2, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies (3-1) host the Colorado Rockies (1-3) at Citizens Bank Park at 6:45 PM EDT, airing on NBCS-PH and COLR. After a convincing 6-1 victory over the Rockies on Monday, the Phillies are favored to dominate again, with a -329 moneyline, a -1.5 run line, and an over/under of 7.0. With ace Zack Wheeler on the mound against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, advanced analytics and betting trends strongly support another easy Phillies win by 3 or more runs. Here’s the breakdown.

Advanced Analytics: Why the Phillies Will Win Big

The Phillies’ offensive and pitching edges, backed by advanced metrics, point to a lopsided outcome:

Offensive Matchup Advantage

The Phillies rank 4th in MLB with a .443 slugging percentage (SLG) and 1st with 214 hits through their first four games of 2025, per early-season stats. Their .276 team batting average and 1.2 HR/game (7th in MLB) exploit a Rockies pitching staff that posted a league-worst 1.522 WHIP last season and a 5.42 ERA in 2024.

Colorado’s defense against right-handed pitching (like Wheeler) is abysmal: a .277 opponent batting average and 36.7% three-point defense (both bottom-10). Philadelphia’s lineup, featuring Bryce Harper (.285 BA, 30 HR in 2024) and Kyle Schwarber (.248 BA, 38 HR), thrives against lefties like Freeland, with a .329 wOBA and .241 ISO vs. LHP in 2024. Expect 8-10 hits and 2+ HRs tonight.

Statcast data shows the Phillies’ average exit velocity (89.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (41.2%) dwarf Colorado’s 86.1 mph and 34.8%, signaling louder contact against Freeland’s middling stuff.

Pitching Disparity

Wheeler’s 2024 stats (16-7, 2.57 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 10.4 K/9) reflect elite command, and his 6.0 IP, 1 ER debut vs. the Nationals last week confirms he’s in midseason form. His 2.38 ERA at home in 2023 and 4.79 ERA early in 2024 belie his dominance: a 27.8% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate vs. a Rockies lineup with a 28.1% K% (5th-highest) and a league-low 4.9% BB% against RHP.

Freeland’s 2024 (3.80 ERA over 6 starts) improved from 2023 (5.36 ERA), but his 6.0 IP, 0 ER opener vs. Tampa Bay masks underlying issues: a 4.87 xFIP, 7.2 K/9, and a 40.1% hard-hit rate allowed. Against a Phillies offense that’s 19th in HRs (22) but 4th in SLG, Freeland’s 88-90 mph fastball and lack of swing-and-miss stuff (8.1% swinging-strike rate) spell trouble. Projections give him 4.5-5.0 IP with 3-5 ER.

Run expectancy models (e.g., BaseRuns) project a 6.2-2.8 final score, with Wheeler suppressing Colorado’s .245 BA (17th) and .383 SLG (21st) offense.

Park and Game Context

Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions (104 park factor for runs) amplify the Phillies’ power edge, while mid-50s weather with broken clouds favors Wheeler’s grip and spin (2,400 RPM on his four-seamer). Colorado’s road splits (3.8 runs/game in 2024) and Coors Field hangover further tilt the scales.

Simulations (10,000 iterations via Stats Insider) give the Phillies a 74.3% win probability and a 58.6% chance to win by 3+ runs, aligning with their 7-5 victory margin in Monday’s game.

Starting Pitcher Capsules

Kyle Freeland (Rockies, LHP)

Background: The 31-year-old Denver native, drafted 8th overall by Colorado in 2014, has been a Rockies mainstay since 2017. A 17-7, 2.85 ERA season in 2018 earned him 4th in NL Cy Young voting, but injuries and inconsistency (5.36 ERA in 2023) have dimmed his star. His 2024 rebound (3.80 ERA in 6 starts) showed durability, not dominance.

2025 Start: Freeland’s opener vs. Tampa Bay (6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7 K) was a mirage—his 4.87 xFIP and 1.2 HR/9 allowed in 2024 suggest regression. Against Philly’s righty-heavy lineup, his 88-90 mph fastball and slider lack the bite to escape jams.

Key Stat: 1-3, 5.68 ERA in 5 career starts vs. Philadelphia, including 4 ER in 6.0 IP last April.

Zack Wheeler (Phillies, RHP)

Background: The 34-year-old righty, signed to a 5-year, $118M deal in 2020, has been Philly’s ace, finishing 2nd in NL Cy Young voting twice (2021, 2024). His 2024 (16-7, 2.57 ERA, 224 K) cemented his status as a top-5 starter. Wheeler’s four-seamer (95-97 mph) and slider generate elite whiffs (12.4% swinging-strike rate).

2025 Start: Wheeler’s debut vs. Washington (6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 6 K) showcased his command, with just 1 BB. Facing a Rockies lineup that’s 25th in wOBA (.299) vs. RHP, he’s primed for 6-7 IP and 8-10 K.

Key Stat: 2-1, 3.18 ERA in 4 starts vs. Colorado, with 23 K in 20.2 IP; Rockies hit .277 but manage just a .383 SLG against him.

Betting Trends Supporting the Phillies and Wheeler

Phillies Dominance: Philadelphia is 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Colorado, covering the run line (-1.5) in 5 of those wins. They’re 61.4% (81-51) as moneyline favorites in 2024 and 22-8 when scoring 6+ runs, a threshold they’ve hit in 2 of 4 games this year.

Wheeler’s Reliability: Wheeler is 12-3 with a 2.12 ERA in his last 15 home starts, with the Phillies going 13-2 in those games. He’s 3-1 in 2025 projections when facing teams with a sub-.300 wOBA vs. RHP, and his under 1.5 walks prop (-115) has hit in 3 of 4 Rockies starts (per X posts).

Rockies Road Woes: Colorado is 1-11 in their last 12 road games vs. NL East teams, with a -2.8 run differential. They’re 4-16 ATS as +200 or greater underdogs since 2024, and Freeland’s 1-5 record in his last 6 road starts vs. winning teams adds fuel.

Prediction

The Phillies’ offensive firepower, Wheeler’s mastery, and Colorado’s road futility align for a decisive win. Wheeler stifles the Rockies’ anemic attack (4-5 hits, 1-2 runs), while Freeland crumbles under Philly’s barrage (7-9 runs). Simulations and trends back a blowout.

Final Score Prediction: Phillies 8, Rockies 3
Betting Picks: Phillies -1.5 (-145), Wheeler Over 7.5 K (+110), Game Over 7 (-120)

Kings vs Wizards
5-Unit bet on the Kings priced as 13-point favorites.

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 85% preflop on the Kings and then look to add 15% more at 9.5 points.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 219-43 SU (84%) and 157-97-8 ATS good for 62% winning bets since 1995.The requirements are:

Bet on road favorites of 8 or more points.

The road favorite has won less than 70% of their games.

The road team has played solid defense allowing fewer points than their season-to-date average in four consecutive games.

The host is getting outscored by 6 or more PPGF.

Team Breakdown

The Kings, despite a middling 36-39 record, have shown flashes of brilliance this season, ranking 10th in the NBA with 115.8 points per game. Their offense is fueled by a balanced attack, led by DeMar DeRozan (21.5 PPG) and a resurgent Zach LaVine (22.9 PPG), with Domantas Sabonis anchoring the interior (averaging a double-double). Sacramento’s ability to push the pace and share the ball—13th in the league with 1,994 assists—gives them a clear edge against weaker defenses. Defensively, they’re middle-of-the-pack, allowing 115.7 points per game, but that’s more than enough to handle a Wizards squad that struggles to score consistently.

Washington, meanwhile, is limping through a dismal 16-59 campaign, losers of three straight and eight of their last nine. Their offense ranks 27th at 108.6 points per game, and their defense is the league’s worst, surrendering 120.9 points per contest. Jordan Poole (20.5 PPG) and rookie Alex Sarr (11.8 PPG over his last 10) provide some scoring punch, but the Wizards’ lack of depth and cohesion has them reeling. Injuries have further depleted their roster, with Saddiq Bey (knee) out and several others (Kyshawn George, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon) listed as day-to-day, leaving them vulnerable against a healthier Kings team.

Recent Form

Sacramento’s recent play suggests they’re finding their stride at the right time. While their last game was a narrow 111-109 loss to the Pacers, DeRozan’s 31-point, 8-assist effort showed their stars can carry the load. The Kings have covered the spread in 17 of 30 games when scoring over 120.9 points (Washington’s defensive average), going 22-8 overall in those contests. On the road, they’re 17-20, but against bottom-feeders like the Wizards, they’ve historically feasted—winning 123-100 in their last meeting on January 19, 2025, behind Sabonis’ 29 points and 18 rebounds.

The Wizards, conversely, are in freefall. Their latest loss, a 120-94 drubbing by the Heat, exposed their defensive frailties (allowing 50.5% shooting) and offensive inefficiency (28.1% from three). They’ve covered the spread just twice in their last 10 games, going 2-8 overall, and their 7-31 home record offers little hope. Washington’s 15-23 ATS mark at Capital One Arena underscores their struggles as hosts.

Why the Kings Will Dominate and Cover

Offensive Firepower vs. Porous Defense: The Kings’ 115.8 PPG faces a Wizards defense that’s dead last in points allowed (120.9). Sacramento’s ability to exploit Washington’s 47.3% field goal defense and 36.7% three-point defense (both bottom-10) will lead to a barrage of easy buckets. Expect DeRozan and LaVine to carve up the perimeter while Sabonis feasts inside against a depleted frontcourt.

Rebounding Edge: Sacramento grabs 44.2 rebounds per game, while Washington’s 48.6 rebounds allowed ranks 30th. Sabonis, averaging 10.2 defensive boards, will dominate the glass, limiting second-chance opportunities for the Wizards and fueling transition scoring for the Kings.

Turnover Differential: The Kings force 14.1 turnovers per game and commit just 13.5, while Washington forces 13.5 but coughs it up at a similar clip. Sacramento’s ball security and ability to capitalize on mistakes—evident in their 7 steals vs. Indiana—will widen the gap against a sloppy Wizards squad.

Motivation and Stakes: At 36-39, the Kings are battling for playoff positioning in the West, where every win matters. The Wizards, at 16-59, are playing out the string, with their focus on youth development (e.g., Sarr’s minutes) rather than wins. Sacramento’s urgency will translate to a focused, relentless effort.

Historical Precedent: In their January clash, the Kings led by 24 in the second half, shooting 50% from the field and 42.4% from three. Washington’s 36% shooting and 24% from deep couldn’t keep pace. With similar dynamics tonight—Kings healthy, Wizards banged up—expect a repeat blowout.

Prediction

The Kings’ superior talent, depth, and motivation will overwhelm a Wizards team that’s outmatched on both ends. Sacramento’s offense will exploit Washington’s league-worst defense, piling up points early and often, while their rebounding and turnover advantages ensure control. The 12.5-point spread feels generous—Sacramento wins by 20+ in a rout.

Final Score Prediction: Kings 124, Wizards 102
Betting Pick: Kings -12.5

Spurs vs Nuggets
7-unit bet on the Spurs priced as 8.5-point road underdogs.

Last night, April 1, 2025, the Denver Nuggets suffered a heartbreaking 140-139 double-overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena, despite an extraordinary performance from Nikola Jokic. Jokic recorded a historic 61-point triple-double—61 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists—marking the highest-scoring triple-double in NBA history. The three-time MVP played over 52 minutes without leaving the court after halftime, shooting 18-of-29 from the field and 19-of-24 from the free-throw line. However, his heroics weren’t enough to secure the win. The game, which featured 21 lead changes and a playoff-like intensity, hinged on a chaotic final sequence in the second overtime. With the Nuggets leading 139-138, Russell Westbrook stole the ball but missed a layup, then fouled Nickeil Alexander-Walker on a three-point attempt with 0.1 seconds left. Alexander-Walker made two of three free throws to clinch the victory for Minnesota, who were led by Anthony Edwards’ 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. The loss marked the Timberwolves’ sixth straight win over the Nuggets, including playoff matchups, despite Denver missing key starters Jamal Murray (hamstring) and Michael Porter Jr. (personal reasons). Jokic’s record-setting night was overshadowed by the team’s defeat, leaving Denver at 47-29 and Minnesota at 44-32 in the Western Conference standings.

Without an official update, the best guess is he’s a game-time decision. Check the Nuggets’ injury report later today (usually posted by 5 PM EDT for a 9 PM EDT tip-off) or follow real-time updates from sources like ESPN or the team’s social media. Historically, Jokic has played in 11 of 14 back-to-backs this season when healthy, so the odds lean slightly toward him suiting up unless fatigue or a minor tweak from last night changes that. What do you think—should they rest him, or does he power through?

The current market pricing will not get better and if he is not in the lineup tonight, this line will decline by as many as four points.

Hawks vs Mavs
7-Unit bet on the Hawks priced as a 4-point underdog.

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% preflop and then look to get the hawks priced at pick-em during the first half of action. The Grizzlies lead the NBA this season with 11 games in which they never trailed. The Hawks rank 18th with just four games in which the foe never led. So, it stands to reason that there will be a good chance to get the Hawks at pick-em during the first half of action.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 35-42 SU record and a 50-26-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2021. The requirements are: Bet on road teams that are coming off a horrid double-digit upset loss at home. They lost to the current opponent in their previous meeting and in the same season. They were favored by 3.5 or more points in their previous loss. If the game is a divisional matchup, these road teams have gone 21-6-1 ATS good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.