Matt Fargo – Sports Handicapper

This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Braves were able to take Game One of this series with a dramatic 3-2 win as Austin Riley hit a walk-off single in the bottom the ninth inning to jump out to a 1-0 series lead in the NLCS. They do have a much more daunting task on Sunday but are catching a solid number with the Dodgers being a very popular play. Ian Anderson gets the ball for Atlanta and he put together a very solid season with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 25 starts. He was nearly flawless against the Brewers as he tossed five scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and no walks while striking out six. He has been great at home, going 6-1 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 starts with the Braves going 10-2 in those starts. Max Scherzer counters for Los Angeles and he picked up the save in Game Five of the NLDS. He has gone 0-1 in two postseason starts and while he pitched well, he received just two runs of support. He had two starts against the Braves, one good and one bad and in the latter, he allowed four home runs. The Braves hit 269 home runs this season, third most in baseball so that could be an issue as the long ball has plagued him throughout his career. The Dodgers are 7-15 in their last 22 League Championship road games while the Braves are 20-6 in their last 26 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (908) Atlanta Braves

Kansas City is coming off a blowout loss against the Bills Monday night to fall to 2-3 on the season and this could already be a make or break game for the Chiefs. They scored only 20 points which was a season low but that came against the top ranked defense in the NFL. Still, they are ranked No. 4 in total offense and No. 5 in scoring offense and have a great opportunity to get back on track here. Patrick Mahomes has not been the same quarterback we have come accustomed to the last few years and while he has had some spectacular games, he has two games where his passer rating was 70.9 and 81.6. The Washington defense was supposed to carry the team this season but it has been dreadful so far this season as it is ranked No. 27 in total defense and No. 31 in scoring defense. It is 2-3 with the two wins coming against the Giants and Falcons by a combined five points. Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on Road favorites off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) since 1983. Play (257) Kansas City Chiefs

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This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS with our NFL Sunday Primetime Punisher. The Seahawks took a big hit last Thursday as Russell Wilson has been ruled out because of the finger injury he suffered against the Rams last Thursday night and will likely be out until early December. Geno Smith will take over as the starter and he looked solid coming in for Wilson last week and now he has had extra preparation time to get ready for the Steelers. The Seahawks are 2-3 on the season including three losses in their last four games although the one victory was an impressive one over the 49ers on the road. Pittsburgh snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Denver last week as it looks to have turned the corner but we are still not buying it. The offensive line looked solid last week against Denver but we see a regression here that should overlook the Seahawks sans Wilson. Ben Roethlisberger was fortunate to have three passes that should have been picked off but were not. The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog while the Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (273) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is going to be a very tough spot for the Raiders as the firing of Jon Gruden will be a huge distraction in what was already a bad situation. They were clearly distracted last week as they managed just nine points against the Bears defense and they will be facing another stellar defense this week. Las Vegas has lost two straight games following a 3-0 start with two of those wins coming in overtime and the other coming against an inconsistent Pittsburgh team. They have dropped three straight against the spread. Denver has also dropped two straight games following a 3-0 start and while those three wins came against three of the worst teams in the NFL, we see a big effort here at home to get back to its winning ways. The lone home loss came against Baltimore which has been playing at a peak level. The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Here, we play on favorites in a game involving two teams with less than 1.25 tpg forced, after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) since 1983. 9* (270) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS with his AFC Game of the Week. Baltimore is coming off an epic comeback over Indianapolis in overtime on Monday night as it overcame an 18-point second half deficit to win by six points. This could be considered a letdown spot on a short week but we cannot bank on that angle when one of the best teams in the NFL is coming to town. The Ravens have won four straight games following an opening loss against Las Vegas in overtime and they have looked dominant only once this season as three of those wins came by a combined nine points. The Chargers are coming off a shootout win over Cleveland to also improve to 4-1 on the season with the lone loss coming against the Cowboys by just three points. Los Angeles is 2-0 on the road and while this is not an easy spot playing on the east coast, that is negated with the shorter week for the Ravens. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record while the Chargers are 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 allowing 360 or more total ypg, after gaining 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (261) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. New England snapped a two-game losing streak with a less than impressive effort against Houston as it held on for a three point win as an eight-point road favorite. Now, the Patriots return home as a home underdog and justifiably so but we feel the spot is good as early money has been pouring in on Dallas and has already moved this line two points. The Patriots are 0-3 at home and the road team is 5-0 in their five games and the streak looks to be broken this week. The Cowboys have won four straight games following an opening loss against Tampa Bay and they are a perfect 5-0 against the number and that is a contrarian spot we love to go against. The offense has been rolling, averaging 40.3 ppg over their last three games, all coming at home. They will be facing a sneaky good defense as the Patriots are ranked No. 5 in total defense and No. 5 in scoring defense. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog while the Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (272) New England Patriots