Will Rogers – Sports Handicapper

The set-up: The East Carolina Pirates have opened the season 0-3 and seek the team's first win of the new year Sunday against the 1-1 UConn Huskies at Rentschler Field in Storrs, Ct. ESPNU will televise this AAC matchup of teams each coming off 3-9 seasons. Both schools were scheduled to be off this weekend but the game was moved ahead in  to accommodate UConn, which had its Sep. 9 game with USF postponed due to Hurricane Irma. These schools met last season in Greenville, with the Pirates rolling to a 41-3 victory.

East Carolina: The Pirates have gone to 13 bowls since 1992 but in Scottie Montgomery's first year at the school in 2016, ECU was just 3-9. The offense has averaged just 17.0 PPG (116th) on 372.7 YPG (93), while the defense just may be the nation's worst. It ranks 129th in yards allowed (636.0 per / also 129th in passing yards at 308.3 YPG) plus only one school allows more points than the 51.3 PPG given up by the Pirates. OK, West Va (56 points) and Va. Tech (64 points) are  "out of ECU's league" but even James Madison (FCS team) gained 614 yards against the Pirates' D (no excuse for that!).

 UConn: The Huskies' offense is slightly better than ECU's, averaging 436.0 YPG (54th) but it is scoring only 22.5 PPG (105th), which is to say it' has underachieved. On the defensive side of the ball, UConn has allowed 536.5 YPG (125th) but a more modest 29.0 PPG (85th). QB Bryant Shirreffs is now a senior and is completing 69.2 percent of his passes but for only 351 yards (in two games) with three TDs and one interception. The UConn Huskies ground game is not all bad, averaging 183.5 yards YPG (54th). 

The pick: OK, the Pirates haven't won a road game since 2015 (0-7 SU & ATS) and the team enters this rare Sunday game on a 1-12 ATS run but UConn comes in on an 0-12 ATS run as a home favorite, last covering in that role in the team's 2012 season-opener over UMass. Make East Carolina

\The set-up: The Minnesota Twins came to Detroit Thursday for a four-game weekend series on a three-game slide and losses in five of their previous six games. However, the sad-sack Tigers were "just what the doctor ordered" as the Twins have won the first three games and early Sunday afternoon, go for a series sweep. After totaling just six runs while dropping three straight at the New York Yankees to begin the week (Mon-Wed.), Minnesota's bats have 'woken up' in Detroit, scoring 29 runs in taking the first three from the Tigers. In the process, the Twins have cut their magic number to five, for clinching the AL's second wild card spot. As for the 62-93 Tigers, they've lost six straight to drop into last place in the AL Central behind the 62-92 Chicago White Sox (62-92). The Tigers announced on Friday that manager Brad Ausmus would not be back next season as the rebuilding project continues (target date, 2025?).

The pitching matchup: Jose Berrios (12-8 & 3.94 ERA) will start for Minnesota Buck Farmer (4-4 & 7.11 ERA) for Detroit. It's been a rough September for Berrios, who has yet to win in four tries. He's 0-2 (team is 1-3) this month, posting a 4.71 ERA. He's struggled with his control of late, issuing eight walks in nine total innings over his last two outings
Berrios was lit up for six runs on six hits and did not record a strikeout in 3 1/3 innings at Detroit back on Aug. 12 in a 12-11 Tigers win (he escaped with a no-decision). That effort was one of just three career starts for Berrios against Detroit and he's 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA (Twins are 0-3). Farmer is also struggling in September, as he's lasted just 6 2/3 innings over his last two starts, allowing nine runs (eight earned) on 10 hits across (10.80 ERA).  He is trying to lock up a spot in next season's rotation but is surrendering an opposing batting average of .279 in nine starts (team is 4-5) with a 1.47 WHIP to go along with that 7.11 ERA. Farmer is seeing the Twins for the first time this season.

The pick: It's hard to get too excited about Berrios but not hard at all to back the Twins here, over the Tigers. The Twins can 'taste' a wild card berth after losing a MLB-high 103 games in 2016. Then there is just the simple notion of going against Farmer. He owns an 11.65 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in five home starst this season and in his lone start against the Twins in his career (back in 2014), was able to get just four outs while allowing seven ERs. Doing the math, that's a 47.25 ERA! Make the Twins an 8* play.

The set-up: It's Sunday night NFL action on NBC from FedEx Field, as the 2-0 Oakland Raiders visit the 1-1 Washington Redskins. The Raiders have quickly established that last year's 12-4 season was no fluke, beating the Titans 26-16 in Tennessee (impressive win) and then routing the Jets back in Oakland, 45-20. The Redskins were upset at home in Week 1 by the Eagles (30-17) but the team's 27-20 Week 2 win in LA over the Rams is starting to look better, after the Rams have scored 46 and 41 points in their other two games to open the 2017 season.

Oakland: Derek Carr is completing 75.0 percent of his passes for 492 yards with five TDs and zero INTs (126.5 QB rating) five touchdowns and zero interceptions. WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined for 258 receiving yards and four TDs while TE Jared Cook has nine receptions. Crabtree has 20 TD catches since the start of the 2015 season, tying him for fourth in the NFL in that span (pretty sweet FA pick-up!). The running game is chipping in 144.5 YPG (5th), while averaging a healthy 5.2 YPC. With the offense averaging 35.5 PPG (2nd-best), the defense is doing just fine in allowing 18.0 PPG (10th).

Washington: QB Kirk Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season but is off to a slow start (only 419 passing yards) after losing his starting WRs in free agency. He is trying to establish a rapport with Terrelle Pryor (eight catches for just 97 yards without a TD catch) and it sure won't help if TE Jordan Reed plus starting RB Rob Kelley both miss (each is listed as questionable due to injuries). However, third-down back Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine filled in nicely for a ground game that produced 229 yards against the Rams. Washington's defense ranks 26th in both points allowed (25.0 per) and total yards (350.0 per), although the team's rush D is allowing just 77.5 YPG. However, Carson Wentz riddled the Washington secondary for 307 yards in the air in Week 1 and stopping Carr may be a 'bridge too far.'

The pick: The Raiders enter this contest on an impressive 11-2 ATS run over their last 13 road game (most as an underdog, though) plus QB Carr, who began his career with 10 consecutive defeats, comes in 14-3 over his last 17 starts! However, Washington head coach Jay Gruden has his own spread success lately as well, as he's 15-7 ATS his last 22 regular season games. Tough call on the side but this is Week 3's highest total (could climb even higher by game time) and like in Week 1 at Tennessee, expect an Under for the Raiders on the road. Make it an 8* play.

The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans square off in Week 3 NFL action from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Both teams are 1-1 and the loser will not be a "happy camper." The Seahawks' offense has been "missing in action" after two weeks, averaging 10.5 PPG to rank 29th of 32 teams on 268.5 YPG (27th). Tennessee appeared to find its offense in the second half of last week's 37-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars but now will be severely tested by on of the NFL's best defenses these last five-plus years in Seattle.

Seattle: The Seahawks were held without a TD in Week 1 at Green Bay and then were able to generate just 13 points (one TD) against a San Francisco defense which just allowed 41 point to the Rams on Thursday night. Russell Wilson passed for 198 yards and a TD on 23 of 39 passing, against the 49ers and rookie RB Chris Carson led Seattle’s ground game with 93 yards on 20 carries. As it has for some time now, Seattle's defense is off to a typically strong start, allowing 13.0 PPG (5th) on 309.0 YPG (13th).

Tennessee: The Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders in Week 1 but I think most are now aware that the Raiders are a quality team. The Titans found their offense in the second half of last week's win at Jacksonville, scoring 31 points. QB Mariota finished with 215 yards (one TD / one INT). RB Derrick Henry led with 92 yards rushing (on just 14 carries) with one TD. The Titans defense recorded two sacks, two interceptions and forced two fumbles, while holding the Jags to just 310 yards of total offense.

The pick: I like the Titans quite a bit but Tennessee is 7-22-2 ATS in its last 31 home games (5-9-1 as a home favorite since 2013). The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and Seattle is11-5-3 as a road underdog since 2011, including 2-0 in 2016. Make Seattle a 10* play.

The set-up: The Houston Texans and the New England Patriots square off in Week 3 NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, a rematch of the Patriots' 34-16 win in last season's Divisional Round of the playoffs when Houston was without injured star J.J. Watt. He is back and healthy (although he's sack-less) plus Houston is a banged-up football team. Both teams are 1-1, losing their openers before winning in Week 2. Houston won 13-9 at Cincinnati with Deshaun Watson making his first NFL start, while Brady rebounded from his awful Week 1 performance by ripping the Saints for 447 yards and three TDs on 30 of 39 passing in the Pats' 36-20 win.

Houston: No one can say a 13-9 win over the struggling Bengals is a big deal. Deshaun Watson completed 15 of 24 passing for only 125 yards (no TDs or INTs) but led Houston in rushing with 67 yards, including a spectacular 49-yard TD scamper. RB Lamar Miller added 61 yards on the ground with his team-leading 18 carries, while DeAndre Hopkins was one of just four Texans’ receivers to catch a pass in the win, leading the team with seven receptions for 73 yards. The Texans, who finished No. 1 total defense last season (301.3 YPG) even without Watt for most of the year, recovered a fumble, made three sacks and held Cincy to just 295 yards and without a TD (three FGs). Then again, it was against the Bengals, not Brady and the Pats.

New England: There was more than a little 'chatter' after Brady was held without a TD pass in New England's opener against the Chiefs (Brady had the league's lowest passer rating after that humbling 42-27 setback to Kansas City). However, the doubters have all been quieted, after his Week 2 effort at New Orleans (see above). The Pats head into this contest averaging 31.5 PPG (5th) on 341.5 YPG through the air (No. 1 in the NFL). There could be some concern with the defense though, as after allowing an NFL-low 15.6 PPG in 2016, on 326.4 YPG (6th), the Pats are allowing 31.0 PPG (30th) on 483.0 YPG (31st).

The pick: The Patriots took it to the Texans last season, winning both meetings, including a 27-0 shutout win in Week 3 (Brady was still serving his suspension) and then that 34-16 win in the playoffs. Deshaun Watson had a solid first start but beating the sad-sack Bengals is one thing, beating the Pats of Brady and Belichick, is another. Rookie QBs are 5-15 (in the first or only meeting of a rookie season) against Belichick through his time in New England. The Foxboro numbers are even scarier, 0-8 with five TDs, 16 INTs and a 50.7 passer rating. Add to that, the fact that the Texans have never won in Foxboro (0-5) and are 1-8 overall against the Patriots, with six straight losses. I'd say lay it with the Pats but I'm troubled by New England's D so far and I like what I see from Watson. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The NFL's first "London game" of the 2017 season features the 2-0 Baltimore Ravens taking on the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars "across the pond" at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday morning. This will be Jacksonville's fifth straight year playing a game in London but it is a first for Baltimore. The Ravens played the entire preseason without starting QB Joe Flacco but went 4-0, anyway. As Baltimore had insisted, Flacco was ready for Week 1 and while he's been mediocre at best, the Ravens are off to a 2-0 start with a 20-0 win at Cincy and 24-10 home win over the Browns. The Jags opened their 2017 season by upsetting the Texans 29-7 in Houston but then severely disappointed their home crowd by losing 37-16 to the Titans, last Sunday in Jacksonville.

Baltimore: Flacco has passed for just 338 yards (Ravens rank 31st of 32 teams in passing yards), as the team's deep threats (Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman) have been non-existent thus far, combining for three catches for just 20 yards receiving. However, the running game is averaging 146.5 YPG (3rd). Once again, Baltimore is relying on its defense, as the Ravens have allowed just 5.0 PPG (2nd) on 303.5 YPG (10th). The Baltimore D has four INTs in each of of its first two games, along with two recovered fumbles plus eight sacks!

Jacksonville: Rookie RB Leonard Fournettehad 100 yards rushing in his debut but was held to just 40 yards by the Titans. The Jags are counting on him, as his success is paramount to Doug Marrone's offensive designs as the Jaguars try to rein in the turnover-plagued Bortles. The much-maligned Bortles is completing only 56.4% for 348 yards (Jags rank 28th in passing yards) with two TDs and two INTs (QB rating of 72.4). In the Jags' Week 1 win, Bortles attempted a career-low 21 passes. "However, we can find ways to win, if it's throwing it 50 times or five times, I'm more than willing to do that and fine with it," Bortles said after that game. "It's not, 'I'm mad because we're not throwing the ball enough.' It's not that. I couldn't care less. Anyone believe him? Think that anyone in the organization has much faith in Bortles?

The pick: This is the 21st regular-season meeting between the teams and the Jaguars surprisingly lead the series, 11-9 (note: the Ravens and Jaguars were former division rivals in the AFC Central until 2001). Series history means little in this one but as we saw in Week 2, but the fact Bortles reverted to a familiar form with two ill-timed picks and general ineffectiveness in that lopsided loss to the Titans, does. Anyone expect him to deal effectively with this 'nasty' Baltimore D (see above to be reminded)? Not I. Make Baltimore an 8* play.