Will Rogers – Sports Handicapper

The set-up: Minnesota is rebuilding for next season and I think it'll have difficulties mustering much of a sustained offensive attack here in this difficult non-conference venue. The Wolves numbers are skewed now because of all the roster change and the overall strategy of the organization moving forward for this season, but note that they've seen the total go under in nine of their last 12 after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games.

The pick: Miami has been streaky this season. The Heat are better at home, especially on the defensive end. Note that they've seen the total go under in ten of their last 14 after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games. This number is much too high in my opinion.

9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Wolves/Heat.

The set-up: The Grizzlies are still in the playoff picture, but after three straight losses, including a 27 point setback to the Clippers last time out, Memphis certainly needs to start turning things around. With upcoming home games vs. the equally as hungry Kings and then the West leading Lakers, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the visiting side. The Grizz already beat Houston 121-110 back on January 14th and while I'm not in fact calling for an outright upset here, I do think that Memphis will be by far the "hungrier" team tonight. The Rockets took care of the Knicks at home in their latest action, but with a couple nights off before a big prime time game at Boston on Saturday, this also sets up as a bit of a "look-ahead" spot for the home side as well.

The pick: Combined with the above strong situational factors, also note that Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a three games SU/ATS losing streak, while Houston is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after scoring over 120 or more points and failing to cover the spread in its previous outing (the Knicks were favored by 14 and it won 123-112). Consider grabbing the points in this matchup.

1* FREE PLAY on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The set-up: VCU is 7-7 in conference play after an 80-62 loss in St. Louis last time out. A date vs. 6-8 UMass is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion. UMass looks poised for a letdown here ultimately in my opinion after two straight wins, including a 57-49 victory over Fordham. Overall VCU averages 71.3 PPG and it allows 65, while the Minutemen average 68.7 PPG and they allow 71.6. 

The pick: VCU is the "hungrier" team here for sure after four straight losses. The Rams though are a money-making 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a four-games or longer conference losing streak and I expect this strong trend to continue here. Lay the points.

8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on VCU.

The set-up: UCF has lost two of its last three and its just 5-9 in AAC play. The Knights are going to have their hands full here trying to muster up much of an offensive attack in my opinion vs. the stingy Huskies. UConn enters off a 78-71 win over USF. UConn is jockeying for better positioning in the upcoming Conference tourmanent, which it will need to win to get an invite to the Big Dance. 

The pick: These two teams have played to the under in seven of their last ten in the series and everything once again points to a lower-scoring battle tonight. UConn only averages 71.7 PPG and UCF clocks in a 68.9 per game. Considering all of the above factors, I'm going to recommend a play on the "under." 

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER UCF/UConn.

The set-up: Villanove will be playing in the tournament, but St. John's is desperate for a few more wins. An outright upset here would solidify its spot and while I'm not actually calling for the outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Red Storm play with revenge here after losing by 20 to the Wildcats at home earlier in the season. Clearly Villanova is the better team, but after four straight wins I beleive it'll struggle to maintain focus today. 

The pick: Note as well that St. John's is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games in trying to revenge a same season home loss of 20 points or more, while Villanova is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a three-games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on St. John's.

The set-up: Orlando is one of the slowest paced teams. The offense feeds off its tough defensive play. Clearly the last thing the hungry Magic wil want to do is to turn this one into a track meet. The Hawks love to push the pace and they rarely put much stock onto the defensive end of things. That said, off a blowout loss to the 76ers, I believe the home side will have difficulty on the offensive end vs. this stingy Magic defense. 

The pick: Orlando has also seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten vs. the division and in ten of its last 15 after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games, while ATL has seen the total dip below the number in 15 of 23 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. Considering all of the above info, I do indeed feel this number is just a bit high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Magic/Hawks.