Will Rogers – Sports Handicapper

The set-up: I think the Ducks will stumble in this difficult road venue and off back-to-back wins. Most recently Anaheim bested Dallas 6-3. Ducks’ goaltender John Gibson is now 13-9-4 on the year. Columbus enters off a 4-1 win over the Kings. Sergei Bobrovsky was sharp in the victory, stopping 29 of 30 shots. 

The pick: I think home ice can’t be overlooked here. The Ducks have been great, but note that they’re still only 27-30 (-8.2 units) in their last 57 after a win by two goals or more, while Columbus is already 6-3 (+2.3 units) this season vs. teams with winning records. Lay the price.

8* play

The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for an outright upset victory for the hungry Clippers. Oklahoma City looks ripe for the picking here after its 109-98 loss in Denver just last night. The Clippers are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.6 per 100 possessions. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories, but the unit looked “gassed” last night and I think it’ll struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in revenging a loss vs. an opponent in which it scored 110 or more points in, while the Thunder are still only 40-47 ATS in their last 87 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Celtics come in off a relatively simple 129-108 win over the Hawks at home last night and I think that Boston will carry that offensive momentum over here as well. The Pistons could care less about the C’s eight-game win streak, as they come in desperate for a win here after six straight losses, most recently falling 108-107 at Charlotte on Wednesday. The Pistons also play with revenge tonight after falling 108-105 in Boston on Oct. 30th. The Celtics average 111.1 PPG and they allow 103.6. Detroit averages 109 PPG and it allows 110.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 11 in the second game of a back-to-back after winning the first and scoring over 120 points in doing so, while Detroit has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home games in trying to revenge a close road loss to an opponent of three points or less. This number is low, play the “over.” 

8* play

I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Southeast Missouri State will be eager to get back into the winners circle here after falling to 5-5 with an 83-73 defeat to Southern Illinois in their latest action. Ledarrius Brewer of the Redhawks would lead the way with 17 points and four boards. The Citadel comes in having won five straight after crushing sub-division Johnson and Wales 127-93 last time out. But with the step up in the level of competition this week, I think the Bulldogs offense comes back down to Earth tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SE Missouri State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last nine road games after a loss in which it gave up 82 or more points in, while The Citadel has seen the total go “under” in six of its last eight after scoring 125 points or more in a win in its latest outing. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

 10* play

The set-up: Granted Cleveland’s looked a lot better this year, but it has nothing to play for whatsoever and with an extremely satisfying 26-20 home win over Carolina last weekend, I do indeed believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Cleveland. The Browns average only 22.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. Denver had won three in a row before a lacklustre 20-14 loss at San Francisco last weekend. But overall the Broncos average 22.3 PPG, while allowing just 21.7.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is still only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of seven points or less, while never is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by six points or less. “Home cooking” is the difference here. Lay the points.

10*

The set-up: Tulane was 6-6 and UL Lafayette finished 7-6. The Ragin Cajuns lost 30-19 to App State in the Sun Belt title game, but I think Lafayette will keep this one close. These teams played in 2016 and the Green Wave came from behind to post the 41-39 OT win. The Green Wave though average just 25.7 PPG. Tulane struggles against the pass defensively as well, allowing 265.2 YPG. UL Lafayette QB Andre Nunez has 2,136 passing yards and a 64.4 percent completion percentage. Overall Lafayette allows 33.7 PPG, but the unit catches a big break here facing the Green Wave’s impotent offensive attack. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UL Lafayette is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, while Tulane is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more weeks of rest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Arizona State closed the year strong under new head coach Herm Edwards, but I think the Sun Devils will struggle to keep pace with the Bulldogs. Fresno State was 11-2 overall, while ASU was 7-5. Arizona State has a couple of big time playmakers in QB’ Manny Wilkins and RB Eno Benjamin, but it lacks depth on the offensive side. Fresno State QB Marcus McMaryion is a difference maker here. McMaryion finished by completing 70 percent of his passes to go along with a sharp 25/3 TD:INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ASU is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in its last game, while Fresno State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Lay the points, expect a rout.

8* play