Will Rogers – Sports Handicapper

The set-up: Boston came out on top of a wild 14-10 slugfest in the opener of this three game set last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over on Saturday. The Mariners go with Mike Leake, while the Red Sox go with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Leake is so far 7-4 with a 4.47 ERA. Leake comes in off a loss against Boston on Sunday, allowing five earned runs off eight hits over five innings. Leake came into that outing on a roll, but he’d come back down to Earth in a big way against Boston’s big bats. To to along with his uninspiring ERA, note that Leake also owns a pedestrian 55 strikeouts over 92.2 frames of work.

Rodriguez is so far 9-1 with a 3.59 ERA. Rodriguez threw opposite Leake last Sunday and would earn the victory after allowing two earned runs with nine strikeouts over six innings. It was his sixth straight winning decision. To go along with his respectable ERA, Rodriguez also owns a sharp 1.24 WHIP and has a 90:24 K/BB over 77.2 frames of work.

The pick: Leake has been “hit or miss” this season, but after his latest blow-up, it’s hard to trust where the right-hander is at right now. Rodriguez though has been at this best in this spot all season and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over his progression here as well. I think Boston is well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The set-up: Yesterday’s 5-2 win for LA saw the total sneak under by a half run and in my opinion, all signs point to offense being at a premium tonight as well. LA turns to Clayton Kersahw to carry over its momentum, while New York goes with ace Jacob DeGrom.

The pitchers: Kershaw is so far 1-4 with a 2.76 ERA. Kershaw will skip his re-gab assignment and return from the ten-day DL to make this start. Kershaw tossed a simulated three-inning game and passed with flying colors. Kershaw’s last start came on May 31st against Philadelphia, where he’d give up one earned run off four hits with five strikeouts over five innings.

DeGrom is so far 5-2 with a 1.51 ERA. DeGrom most recently allowed two runs off five hits and a walk with seven strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over Colorado on Monday. DeGrom would induce 24 swinging strikes and 12 ground balls. DeGrom has been the victim of poor run support this year. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in 18 of 31 this year against teams with losing records, while New York has seen the total go “under” in 23 of 40 against clubs with winning records. Looks like we have a classic “duel” on our hands tonight. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Philadelphia smashed Washington 12-2 last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the Nationals go with Erick Fedde.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA. Nola comes in off easily his worst outing of the year, allowing four runs and four walks off seven hits over 4.1 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Starts like that have been few and far between for Nola though over the last two years, so there’s no reason to over-react to one sub-par performance. Note that he still sports a 94:26 K/BB over 95.1 innings.

Fedde is so far 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA. Fedde most recently allowed three runs off seven hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a setback to the Yankees on Monday. Fedde has looked unimpressive in his limited time and he comes in with a poor 7.20 ERA on the road so far.

The pick: The Philadelphia bats came alive in last night’s victory and there’s no reason not to think that it won’t be able to duplicate that feat in this one as well facing the shaky Fedde. It’s a golden opportunity for Nola to bounce back and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to do just that. Play on the Phillies.

The set-up: Belgium will look to pad its score here as it comes in on a huge run, unbeaten since a 2-0 defeat to Spain back in September 2016. Since then it’s gone 20 straight without suffering a defeat. Belgium managed to make it past Panama in its opener, while Tunisia suffered a late 2-1 loss to England.

The teams: Belgium currently sits atop Group G after its 3-0 win over Panama. Romelu Lukaku scored twice in the convincing victory and he now has eight over his last six games. Kevin de Bruyne would assist on both of Lukaku’s goals. 

Wahbi Kharzi will be expected to do a lot more for Tunisia today. Kharzi, a striker at Rennes, has the quality to make an impact in this one though. Ferjani Sassi would net the lone goal in the crushing loss to England.

The pick: It’s all or nothing for Tunisia obviously, as it comes in without a victory over its last four matches. Lukaku though plays very similar to England’s Harry Kane, who had two goals in the win over Tunisia. This one has the feel of a wide open “track meet,” rather than a slower-paced “chess match.” Play the over.

The set-up: Note that this is the second highest total on the board in Week 2. In the 2017 Grey Cup, Calgary was a seven-point favorite, but it would get upset for a second straight year in the “big game” 27-24. A Matt Black interception of Bo Levi Mitchell in the end zone with eight seconds remaining was a dramatic finish to a great upset.

The teams: Calgary looked sharp on both ends of the field in its 28-14 win over visiting Hamilton in Week 1. The Stamps though would only pull away in the fourth quarter with a 19-3 run. Mitchell struggled, going just 17 of 36 for 297 yards, a touchdown and an interception. RB Don Jackson was a bright spot with 87 yards on 12 carries. 

Toronto was a three-point fav in Saskatchewan in Week 1, but the defending champs fell flat in the 27-19 setback. The Argos looked bad offensively, posting just five points through the first three quarters. QB Ricky Ray had just 233 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. RB James Wilder Jr. was also a major disappointment with 17 total rushing yards. The Argos’ bright spot was their play on the defensive side in the Week 1 loss.

The pick: These teams have a long history of playing to lower-scoring defensive battles as well, as five of their last six in the series have gone “under” the posted number. Everything points to another tight/lower-scoring war in this one as well. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Mexico looked impressive defensively in its colossal 1-0 win over Germany, while South Korea looked pretty feeble in its 1-0 loss to Sweden. The Mexicans can take the lead for good in this group with another win though and while that may in fact occur, I do definitely feel that this matchup/game has the feel of a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring, wide-open “shootout.”

The teams: The Mexicans scored early against the Germans in their opening game upset, and then turned their attention to a more defensive style, a tactic which worked brilliantly. Mexico is expected to put out the exact same line-up here, so it’s hard to imagine the offensively challenged Koreans putting up much of a fight in this one.

South Korea was held without a single shot on goal by Sweden. The Korean’s were looking for the Swede’s to make the first mistake, but they simply didn’t make any. South Korean star Heung-min Son looked very average. The Korean’s though did look stout defensively, as Sweden would score its lone goal via a VAR awarded penalty.

The pick: The Koreans won’t be going down without a fight and I think they’ll make Mexico work throughout this one. When you add it all up, there’s no question in my mind that this one has “defensive battle” written all over it. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Germany came out and laid an egg in its 1-0 loss to Mexico to open the 2018 World Cup. The Germans were favored to win the tournament only slightly behind power house Brazil. Germany will now put the foot on the gas for the rest of the tournament and it will look to take out its frustrations on Sweden. 

The Swede’s will be hopeful for an upset of their own, and while they do present a formidable defensive challenge, I still don’t think it’ll be enough against this now angry/frantic German side.

The teams: It’s do or die for the defending World Champs. Sweden sits atop Group F right now after taking care of business against South Korea, while Germany sits tied for last after falling flat against the Mexicans. 

Germany was without the services of Jonas Hector in the opening game because of illness, but the dynamic left-back is expected back in this one. Much more will be expected of Timo Werner though, who haas eight goals in 15 international appearances for the team. 

Victor Lindelof missed the game against South Korea due to illness, but he’s likely to return here. One other player for the Swedes to keep your eye on for is Marcus Berg, how had eight goals in qualifying. Note that Sweden would need a VAR-awarded penalty to beat the South Koreans though. 

The pick: Note as well that Germany did have 17 shots on goal in its loss to Mexico, including nine of which were on target. It also held 67 percent of the possession. The Germans ran into some bad luck and a hot goaltender in Guillermo Ochoa. Germany though has won seven straight against Sweden and with its back against the wall here, I look for it to find a way to bounce back with a resounding victory after its opening game shocker. Lay the price.