Will Rogers – Sports Handicapper

The Hurricanes have won 6 straight, averaging over 4 goals a game in those wins , which is a step up on their 3.3 goal season's average.  They are on  back to back game tonight, but have a solid record in this situation.  The Hurricanes are an exceptional road team, facing a Sabres team that is below .500 at home.  Carolina is very good on defense and on the PK, and especially good at limiting shots.  They will need to be , since the Sabres are tops in the league on offense.

The Sabres are 5-1 in recent action, and while their offense is down slightly, they appear to be a little more defensively responsible, allowing 3 goals or less in their recent games.  Tage Thompson is day to day, and with the all star break just one day away, he will probably be rested.  It is a hit to the Sabres offense if he is MIA.

In spite of the Sabres being at home and better rested, I am wagering on the 'Canes  tonight.  Carolina is a very streaky team,  on a very solid run.  Raanta, likely starts tonight in net and he has three shutouts in his last 6 starts in spite of infrequent usage.  Take the Hurricanes to steal another road game.

The expectation for this game is that New Mexico and Utah State are going to put up a lot of points. I understand that. New Mexico is averaging 82.4 points/game this season while Utah State puts up 79.9. 

But I like the Under here. The number is just too high. 

Looking through the results, New Mexico has had just one game all season close with a total higher than 156 points. That was January 9th vs. Oral Roberts and it stayed Under.

Similarly, Oral Roberts is the only Utah State opponent this season where the total was this high. 

Utah State is #1 in the country in three-point percentage, but can they really continue hitting above 40%? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, with New Mexico, only nine teams in the country take a fewer percentage of total field goal attempts from beyond the arc. 10*

St. John’s is off a close call where they only beat Georgetown by two points. Had they lost there, it would have been really embarrassing. As it stands, the Johnnies have dropped 7 of 10 overall.

But I like them here, at home vs. a Seton Hall team that is off one of its best performances in quite some time. The Pirates just went on the road and beat Butler 70-49. I’m choosing to view that as an “outlier” performance. 

Seton Hall had a week off before facing Butler. They’d previously lost at home to Marquette by 21 points. Before that, they’d won two games by a total of five points.

Now Seton Hall did take the first meeting with St. John’s by 22 points and is 6-2 SU their last eight games overall. But the Johnnies should amped to avenge that loss here at home where they are 10-3 SU this season.

This one boils down to pace. St. John’s plays at the fourth fastest tempo in the country. That can lead to some bad defensive efforts, but they are averaging almost 80 points/game at home. Seton Hall has three wins by a total of four points this year. If not for those, they’d be an afterthought.  Despite some injury concerns, I like the home team here. 10*

Here’s another NBA play where we will have to hold our noses. San Antonio has lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 games. They’ve failed to cover each of the last five times out.

But, despite all that, I’m not sure Sacramento (who is playing its third consecutive road game) should be laying this many points.

The Kings still carry a bottom 10 defensive rating and have given up more points than they’ve scored on the road this season.

They needed overtime to get the “W” on Monday in Minnesota. I think there’s a good chance the Kings “overlook” the Spurs tonight.

Despite all their woes, San Antonio is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games against teams that have winning records. Take the points. 8*

I guess we’ll have to hold our noses here, but I’ll back Detroit as a home dog. I just think it’s time to fade Washington, who has won and covered six straight games.

Over their last three games, the Wizards have beaten Houston, San Antonio and an injury-ravaged New Orleans squad. I’m still not too impressed with a team that’s just 12-16 SU on the road and 7-10 ATS as a favorite. 

While the Pistons have dropped 9 of 11 overall, the last two games saw them fall by only three and six points. The most recent loss came in Dallas with Luka Doncic going off for 53 points. Despite that, they were only down two with under two minutes remaining.

The Wizards have beaten the Pistons six straight times, but three of those wins were by exactly three points.

At the very worst, I expect this to be a close game. I do think the Pistons have a solid shot at winning outright. This has to be considered the “peak of the market” for Washington, who has not been asked to lay six or more on the road all season. 10*