Michael Alexander Sports Handicapper

Rating: 2 Units

This total is way too low even with winds blowing in at 10+ mph. Boyd has been in bad form with 3+ runs in four of his last five starts and has been weaker at home with a 5.40 home ERA, while Chandler has a 4.23 road ERA. Both teams average 9.7 runs per game combined in their last 5 games and the Pirates’ bullpen has a 6.52 ERA in that span. This total is too low, so take the over 6.5 in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

Houston allowed only 93.7. If Cook can’t loosen the Texans’ front, Allen could spend another afternoon running for his football life. The Bills own the bigger name. Houston owns the matchup. Houston is 6-2 SU at home against Buffalo, while the Bills are 2-6 ATS in those eight Texas trips. The Bills are also 1-5 ATS away at AFC South sites.

Rating: 2 Units

The Titans own home-field advantage. The Jets own the money trail. New York is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 series meetings, and 8-1 ATS as a non-division conference dog of 4 or fewer points, while Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five AFC East scrapes. On the flip side, the Bears face the potential dilemma of paying a tariff for net turnover gained, while the Jets are set to benefit the other way.

Rating: 2 Units

Each of the Cowboys’ last six games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line. Nine of the last 10 games between NFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Steelers have captured five consecutive meetings, including an 18-10 victory in the 2024 season opener, and the Falcons have never won in Pittsburgh. Their lone visit without a loss came in 2002, when they tied 34-34 in overtime. Pittsburgh is 16-2-1 in this series, including five straight wins, while Atlanta enters with its sixth different Week 1 starting quarterback in six years. New coaches. Reunited quarterbacks. Same old series. Not to mention the Steelers are 10-0 vs. the NFC South. The Falcons are 1-12 vs the AFC North.

NFL Gold Play

Rating: 4 Units

Cincinnati ranked second in red-zone touchdown percentage at 66.7%, while Tampa Bay finished dead last in red-zone defense at 69.8%. Colliding factors find Cincinnati seeking its fourth straight series victory while Tampa Bay hunts its sixth consecutive Opening Day win. The Jungle finally awakens behind the fact that Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS versus the NFC South and 10-1 ATS as a non-division favorite of five or fewer points, while Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS versus the AFC North.