Tom Macrina

Cowboys @ Giants — Take Giants +3 (-113)

Two teams that were nowhere near playoff contention last year, but both look improved heading into Week 1.

Dallas's offense should be fine as long as everyone stays healthy — that's the easy part. The bigger question is whether this defense can be a top unit. They struggled badly last season, and while they addressed some clear needs, they're doing it under a new defensive coordinator. That's a lot to ask for right away. Add in real questions on the offensive line, and Dallas has more to prove than the market seems to think.

The Giants bring in John Harbaugh, and say what you want about him, he kept Baltimore competitive nearly every season and has a Super Bowl on his résumé. That's the kind of discipline and structure this roster has been missing. New York had a rough record last year, but they were competitive in the majority of their games — this isn't a team that was getting blown out.

The offense has real weapons. I've liked Jaxson Dart since his Ole Miss days, and with a healthy Malik Nabers back, they should be capable of generating explosive plays. Defensively, I expect a strong pass rush to be the identity of this unit.

Historically, Dallas has owned this head-to-head matchup, but the tide is turning. The Giants won at home against Dallas last season in a game that meant nothing for either team — and Dallas was still favored by 3, a spot that closed at -3 with Dallas losing outright 34-17. New York has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings against Dallas.

I like backing a home dog here, especially on primetime. I don't mind waiting to see if this gets to +3.5, but my number says this closes around 2.5.

Take: Giants +3 (-113)

Jets @ Titans — Week 1

The Saleh Storyline

Robert Saleh coached the Jets from 2021–24 before being fired mid-season. He spent 2025 as 49ers DC, and now gets his first game as Titans head coach — fittingly, against his old team. Aaron Glenn enters Year 2 in New York. Both coaches downplay the "revenge" angle, but the intrigue is real.

The Quarterbacks

Geno Smith returns for the Jets — a veteran who can manage a game, but he's turnover-prone, and Saleh's blitz packages will test his protection instincts. Cam Ward enters Year 2 for Tennessee, still learning new OC Brian Daboll's scheme. Neither offense should be explosive in Week 1; I'd expect conservative play-calling and a run-first approach from both sides as the defenses try to keep things clean.

Weapons

Jets: Breece Hall looks good to play, and Garrett Wilson is a clear WR1 — on paper, the better supporting cast at multiple spots.

Titans: Calvin Ridley, Wan'Dale Robinson, and rookie Carnell Tate (the No. 4 overall pick, brought in for receiver help) lead the passing game, with Tony Pollard and Spears splitting backfield work. Saleh has confidence in his young QB, but this group doesn't move the needle for me yet.

Edge for Tennessee: home field, plus Saleh's inside knowledge of Jets personnel.

The Trend

Teams that posted a turnover differential of -0.9 or worse per game the previous season have rebounded well in Week 1 of the following campaign — 11-8-1 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) since 2013 when not facing a similarly bad team. That's +8.5 units, 44.7% ROI, Grade 68. (per Steve Makinen)

The Market

Jets have covered 8 of their last 10 vs. Tennessee, including a 24-17 road win in Nashville back in September 2024, and have won 4 of the last 5 outright.

Titans opened -3; the line has already drifted to -1.5 on Jets support.

The Play

Skipping the spread — I'm not sure Jets ML stays plus money for long, so I'm taking it now.

Take Jets +105.

Let's cash some tickets!

Line Movement Alert: Cardinals +10

This number is starting to drop, and the market is telling an interesting story. Public bettors are hammering the Chargers, but the sharp money is clearly backing Arizona — and the books have noticed. They're moving the spread in response to where the real money is landing, not where the ticket count is.

I don't expect the Cardinals to have a great season, but I do expect them to be competitive in this Week 1 opener. Right now this is a big number that's quickly disappearing, and 10 is a key number worth grabbing while it's still available. The Chargers are also shaping up to be a popular Survivor pool play this week, which only adds to the case that this line won't sit still. My best guess: this one turns into a sweat for anyone on the Chargers side.

The trends back it up. Courtesy of Steve Makinen's research:

Underdogs of 6.5+ points are just 11-34-1 straight-up in Week 1 since 2013 — but they've covered at a 32-13-1 (71.1%) clip against the spread.
Teams that suffered eight or more close losses (8 points or fewer) the previous season have rebounded well in Week 1 when not facing a similarly struggling opponent: 13-7 SU, 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) since 2013.
Teams that saw their win total drop by five or more games the prior year are also strong Week 1 rebound bets in a similar spot: 21-17-1 SU, 26-13 ATS (66.7%).

Play: Arizona Cardinals +10 (-115)