Tom Macrina

This line is a little bit fishy. It looks short and the public is all over the road favorite. That's why this is a free play. My clients know I'm high on this Hawks team. They have the deeper roster and offensive firepower. This is Charlotte's home opener. Last year's Hornets would welcome a shootout. I don't know that the current Hornets do. Don't sleep on this Hawks team.

Take Atlanta Hawks -2.5 (-110)

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Boston Celtics -130 vs. New York Knicks

Both teams dropped their openers, but only one gets to fix it at home. Boston opens at TD Garden, and the number has sat still since it opened even though the public is leaning toward New York. We'll side with the home team.

Paul George looked sharp in his first game as a Celtic, and we expect Jayson Tatum to bounce back in front of his home crowd. The Knicks still look like a team working out the kinks. The Celtics are the same Celtics: they've bounced back well after a loss.

We're staying off the spread and taking the moneyline.

Pick: Boston Celtics -130

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Detroit Pistons +100 at Miami Heat

The Pistons were the top seed in the East last year, and they opened this season by erasing a deficit to beat Boston. Now they get their first road test, and we like the spot.

Detroit’s identity is defense. That travels, and it’s what we want against a Heat team still working out how to play with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He produced right away, but the chemistry isn’t there yet. Miami’s defensive cohesion is still forming after a blowout loss, and the Heat have struggled to find consistent secondary offense. Once Detroit takes away the first option, there isn’t much behind him.

This game comes down to two things. Can the Pistons contain Giannis without selling out and giving up easy looks to everyone else? And can they get enough secondary scoring from their depth to keep pace? Detroit has the depth and the defensive identity to do both. Miami has a superstar and a lot of unanswered questions around him.

Expect a physical, competitive game. We’ll take the better-built team at even money.

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Milwaukee Bucks -115 vs. Chicago Bulls

We took a loss with the Bucks on Wednesday, but we’re going right back to the well. Milwaukee fell 116-128 at Washington after leading for much of the night, and a late Wizards surge flipped it. That’s a game they had in hand, and it doesn’t change how we see this team.

Chicago’s opener was far worse. The Bulls were blown out 135-92 at Toronto, the worst season-opening loss in franchise history. They coughed it up 27 times and hit just 4 of 36 from three. Both clubs are working through major roster overhauls and new leadership, so there’s plenty of early-season noise to sort through.

Yes, Chicago won the Oct. 14 preseason meeting 125-104 at Fiserv Forum, but Milwaukee rested most of its regulars that night, so we’re throwing it out.

On paper this is a close, even matchup, and that’s exactly why the details matter. The Bucks have home court and a healthier roster. The Bulls are dealing with frontcourt absences and the hangover from a demoralizing opener. Milwaukee looked like the better team in Washington, and they get a chance to prove it at home.

We’ll lay the short number with the home favorite.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -115

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Tampa Bay Rays +162 (Game 1) at Milwaukee Brewers

We’re getting a fantastic number on the best team in the American League. These are the two best teams in their leagues, and they’ve met only once, in the opening series of the year, when Milwaukee took two of three. The Rays won the opener of that series, and Nick Martinez got the win.

Martinez is the story here. Tampa Bay is 24-9 in his starts this season, playoffs included, and he’s been sharp on the road. He faces Jacob Misiriowski, who has been terrific all year but hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in the playoffs and hasn’t pitched in two weeks. That’s a lot of rust for a young arm in a Game 1.

The two clubs play a similar brand of baseball. Milwaukee has the better bullpen, but this Rays team has been resilient and opportunistic all October, and we’re not paying a premium for it. The pressure sits squarely on the Brewers at home, and Tampa Bay is built to thrive as the underdog.

Rays take care of business in Game 1.

Take Tampa Bay Rays +162

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