Tom Macrina

Take St. Louis Blues +1.5 (-105)

We cashed the Blues last night at +175, and we're coming right back to them.

St. Louis heads from Dallas to Colorado for the second leg of a back-to-back. Normally that's a spot to be cautious, but I don't mind it this early in the season, when legs are fresh. The Blues also looked strong in Dallas, shutting out a Stars team expected to contend for the Cup, 4-0.

The Avalanche are rested, and they opened with an 8-4 win in Los Angeles. Scoring eight is impressive, but giving up four is a concern. St. Louis hasn't allowed a goal this season.

So we're getting a goal and a half at almost plus money with a team that has yet to give one up. That's a number we have to jump on.

We're also sprinkling the moneyline. This price is too big for a team that hasn't allowed a goal.

Play: Blues +1.5 (-105), with a play on the ML

Let's cash some tickets!

Seattle Kraken +175 at Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton's offense has come out firing, but that's only half the story: the Oilers have surrendered 13 goals through two games, and that kind of defensive leak is a problem against a team with real scoring balance.

Seattle looked sharp in the opener, routing Calgary 6-1 with scoring coming from multiple lines rather than one hot trio. Joey Daccord was locked in, stopping 24 of 25 shots (.960 SV%), and if he brings that form into Rogers Place, the Kraken can stay in this game.

The market is telling us something too. The Oilers are taking heavy public money, as expected, yet the line is moving toward Seattle. We're siding with the sharper side of that move. There's value on the Kraken all the way down to +135, so +175 on the road team is a great number.

Take Seattle Kraken +175.

Let's cash some tickets!

White Sox vs Guardians Under 7 (-120)

These two teams know each other well, and the regular-season history leans Over. This is October baseball, though, and I like the Under for several reasons.

Starting pitching: Parker Messick takes the ball for Cleveland and has had success against this White Sox lineup. He's backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. The bye means the Guardians high-leverage arms are fully rested and available from the first inning.

Chicago's approach: The White Sox come in rested after sweeping the Astros in Houston. They'll go with a bullpen game, and they also have a strong group of relievers to lean on.

Postseason hitting: Offense drops in the playoffs. Teams tighten up, and the weather can suppress hitting. Hitters also see a fresh arm nearly every time up, and that kills a lineup's rhythm. Hitting splits fall off sharply when a batter faces a new pitcher every plate appearance.

With Messick dealing and Chicago using a bullpen game behind high-leverage arms, runs should be scarce early in this ALDS opener.

The Pick: White Sox vs Guardians Under 7 (-120)

Let's cash some tickets!

Virginia vs Florida State Under 52 (-110)

The history points us toward the Under. It has cashed in each of the last six UVA-FSU meetings in Tallahassee, a perfect 6-0.

Virginia arrives with one of the best scoring defenses in the country, allowing just 13.0 points per game. On offense, the Cavaliers lean on a balanced ground attack from Jekail Middlebrook and Xavier Brown, which keeps FSU's pass rush honest and keeps the clock moving.

We expect FSU to try to establish the run with Ousmane Kromah and Quintrevion Wisner, but they'll run into a stout Virginia linebacking corps led by Kam Robinson. If UVA wins early downs, FSU is left in third-and-long, and that drives drives to stall and the clock to run.

The market is also telling us something. The total hasn't budged despite the public backing the Over, a sign the number is holding firm on the Under side.

Take Virginia vs Florida State Under 52 (-110).

Let's cash some tickets!

Louisiana -6 (-115)

I hate how public this side is, but I can't find a reason Louisiana doesn't cover. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 7 of the last 8 in this series, including 8 of the last 10, and have taken 6 straight at home (5-1 ATS). They've also covered 3 of the last 4 against Arkansas State.

The market is already moving toward the Cajuns, so we're grabbing this number now, before it hits 7.

Play: UL Lafayette -6 (-115)

Let's cash some tickets!

Baylor +4 (-110)

We're getting the better side of this number, and the market agrees. The line has already dropped in Baylor's favor, and I expect more movement before kickoff.

Arizona State is playing its first game since returning overseas, and the Sun Devils are coming off a bye. That sounds like an edge, but the travel and the layoff can leave a team out of rhythm. Baylor, meanwhile, is playing with momentum. The Bears opened Big 12 play with a win over Colorado last week, and their only loss this season was a one-point heartbreaker in their opener. They went for two at the end of regulation and just missed. This team is a play or two from being unbeaten.

Baylor also has the history on its side. Arizona State won this matchup last year 27-24 at Baylor, a three-point game, and we're now getting four points.

The matchup favors Baylor too. Their defense is legit, and it gets after the quarterback. Arizona State's offensive numbers are inflated by a 70-7 blowout of Morgan State. Take that game out and the Sun Devils offense looks pedestrian. Against a defense that pressures the QB, I don't see them scoring enough to cover this number.

Take Baylor +4 (-110).

Let's cash some tickets!

Temple +6.5 at USF (Raymond James Stadium)

USF opens American Conference play at 4-0 but is only 2-2 ATS. Temple is 1-3 straight up and 3-1 ATS. The Owls losses to Penn State, Toledo (OT) and Army could all have gone the other way, and they've covered everything except last week. Keeler's teams play close as dogs, and Temple leads the all-time series 6-4.

USF

Defense is the story: 14.0 points allowed per game (21st nationally) and 322 yards. D.J. Crowther is the engine on offense with 325 rush yards and 5 TDs. Michael Van Buren Jr. has 0 INTs, but the offense is feast-or-famine at 350.5 yards per game (105th).

Temple

The Owls run it at 220.3 yards per game (24th), but USF is tough to run on, allowing 121.8 per game and just one rushing TD all year. Temple's defense is leaky (133rd in third-down rate) and the O-line has some injury concerns. The one thing that worries me is the red zone. Temple has scored on every trip inside the 20, and USF has allowed a score on every opponent trip. It's a small sample, but it's a real tell.

The total

USF just won 14-6 and Temple lost 21-17. USF's last two competitive games (Army and BGSU) totaled 52 and 20 points, and the number has fallen from the mid-50s to 48 for a reason.

The plays

Temple +6.5 (NoVig). You might be able to wait for a 7, but I don't think we get there.

Under 49.5 (Rivers)

1H Under 24.5. It's moved to 23.5, but I don't mind paying the extra juice for the full point.

Let's cash some tickets!