Tom Macrina

The number that jumps off the page here is Tampa Bay's split against the NL West: 8-1 to the Under. That's not noise at this point — the Rays have played Under baseball for two straight months, and nothing about this matchup suggests that trend is due to break.

I expect the public to lean Over simply because it's Coors Field, but that's a trap. Colorado has struggled against left-handed pitching all year, and Ian Seymour — while he's had road issues — actually profiles as a good fit for Coors. His style travels better to altitude than a flyball arm would.

Keep an eye on the Rockies moneyline too — Colorado could be live as a dog.

Pick: Rays/Rockies Under 11.5 (-115)

Storm have dropped eight straight games outright — but they've covered 8 of their last 9 against the spread. That split tells the real story here.
Liberty, meanwhile, haven't covered a spread in nine straight games. I can't back a team on a cold streak like that, especially not as a big favorite.
This is a rematch — Storm already beat Liberty in their first meeting, and this is leg one of a home-and-home, with the two teams playing again Wednesday. Liberty are just off a road trip, coming home to their own building, and they've got the clear talent and offense edge. On paper, that's enough to lay points with. But 8.5 is a lot of points to trust a team that's failed to cover in over a month.
I saw this same setup Saturday with Mercury getting points against New York — gave that one out to cover, and it cashed. Seattle already won outright as a home dog this season, and they've consistently kept games tighter than the number suggests.
Play: Storm +8.5

Let's cash some tickets!