Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Eastern Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Eastern Michigan enters this game needing to win out to become bowl eligible, making this matchup crucial. Despite a tough 35-10 loss at Ohio last week, the Eagles have been competitive and will be motivated to bounce back at home. Buffalo, on the other hand, has already secured six wins and will be looking ahead to their bowl eligibility, while also facing a winless Kent State next week. The Bulls have played well recently, but their 2-3 road record this season suggests they could struggle away from home against a hungry Eagles team.

Eastern Michigan's defense will look to stifle a Buffalo offense that has been up-and-down on the road. The Eagles have had success at home with a 3-2 record and will draw confidence from last season’s 24-11 victory over the Bulls. With Buffalo potentially distracted by their upcoming bowl scenario and Eastern Michigan playing with urgency, I expect the Eagles to cover the spread in this pivotal matchup.

Take Eastern Michigan. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 28, Buffalo 21.

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Toronto at 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

Vegas enters this matchup eager to bounce back after a rare 5-2 home loss to Washington on Sunday. Starting a five-game road trip, the Golden Knights bring one of the league's most potent offenses, ranking in the top three in goals per game and excelling on the power play at second overall. Toronto’s struggles with discipline—ranking 21st in penalty minutes per game—could give Vegas plenty of chances to capitalize with the man advantage.

Toronto is coming off a hard-fought 4-3 overtime win against Edmonton but has had an extended layoff since. While they’ve been solid at home, this game presents a tough challenge against a motivated and offensively dynamic Golden Knights team. Vegas dominated the last meeting between these teams in February, winning 6-2, and their balanced attack and road focus make them a strong pick here.

Take Vegas. Projected score: Vegas 4, Toronto 2.

My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Cleveland at 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Pelicans enter this game off a tough loss in Dallas, but this matchup offers a chance to bounce back in a revenge spot after falling to Cleveland earlier this month. New Orleans' 4-11 record might not impress, but they’ve been competitive at times and will look to capitalize on any fatigue or complacency Cleveland might show after playing a hard-fought game in Boston last night.

Cleveland, despite their stellar 15-1 start, could be vulnerable in this back-to-back spot, especially after expending significant energy to try to stay unbeaten. While the Cavaliers have been strong against the spread recently, the circumstances of this matchup—coming off their first loss and playing a team eager for revenge—could lead to a closer game than expected. Look for New Orleans to keep things tight and potentially sneak under the number.

Take New Orleans. Projected score: Cleveland 120, New Orleans 115.

My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Atlanta at 10 pm ET on Wednesday.

Atlanta is coming off an impressive upset win over Sacramento, but consistency has been an issue for the Hawks, as shown by their 7-8 record and 3-4 mark on the road. Despite their offensive talent, they’ve struggled defensively, which could leave them vulnerable against Golden State’s efficient and fast-paced attack. The Hawks may also face a letdown spot after an emotional win on Monday.

Golden State, meanwhile, has dropped consecutive games against the spread but remains one of the league's strongest teams at 10-3 overall, including 4-1 at home. This is a good bounce-back spot for the Warriors, who will be motivated to make a statement after falling short against Atlanta in their last meeting. With their ability to control the tempo and exploit defensive lapses, the Warriors should cover the spread in this one.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Golden State 124, Atlanta 111.

Wednesday NHL Free play. My selection is on the over between Nashville and Seattle at 10 pm ET on Wednesday.

Nashville’s 5-3 win over Vancouver on Sunday showcased their offensive potential, even as they’ve struggled to score consistently this season. While they rank 30th in goals per game, their strong shot volume and top-10 power play percentage suggest they’re due for more scoring success. Facing a Seattle squad that ranks in the bottom third of the league in shots allowed provides a good opportunity for Nashville’s offense to stay productive. Notably, the most recent meeting between these teams on October 15th produced a combined 10 goals, highlighting their ability to generate offense against each other.

Seattle was shut out 2-0 by the Rangers on Sunday but has shown more consistency offensively at home, where they’re 6-4-1 this season. They rank in the middle of the league in goals per game and face a Nashville defense that sits 18th in goals allowed and tied for 23rd in shots allowed per game. With both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities and recent history pointing toward a high-scoring matchup, this contest sets up well for another game with plenty of goals.

Take the over. Projected score: Seattle 4, Nashville 3.

My selection is on Purdue-Fort Wayne plus the points over Penn State at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Purdue-Fort Wayne has started the season strong with a 3-1 record, including a dominant 93-74 victory over Southern Indiana on Saturday. Their only loss came by a respectable seven-point margin on the road against a solid Central Florida team. The Mastodons bring an experienced roster and play a balanced style of basketball that allows them to stay competitive against tougher opponents. Their ability to generate offense and limit turnovers could help them keep this game closer than expected against a favored Penn State squad.

Penn State has impressed with a perfect 4-0 start, including an eye-catching 86-64 road win over Virginia Tech. While the Nittany Lions have won each game by at least 22 points, this matchup presents a potential letdown spot against a less flashy but well-coached Fort Wayne team. The Mastodons' disciplined play and ability to adjust defensively make them a tougher challenge than Penn State’s previous opponents. Fort Wayne should be able to slow the game’s tempo and stay within the number in this contest.

Take Purdue-Fort Wayne. Projected score: Penn State 77, Purdue-Fort Wayne 67.

My selection is on Merrimack plus the points over Rutgers at 8 pm ET on Wednesday.

Merrimack has faced a challenging schedule to start the season, with a win over Vermont followed by losses to strong opponents in VCU and Princeton. While their 1-2 record doesn’t stand out, Merrimack’s defense has been solid, helping them stay competitive even against tougher teams. Their methodical style of play slows the game down, which can frustrate opponents and keep scores closer than expected. This approach should help them cover a large spread against a Rutgers team that might not be fully tested yet.

Rutgers is off to a perfect 3-0 start, including a high-scoring 98-81 win over Monmouth last Friday. While the Scarlet Knights’ offense has been impressive, their defense has allowed plenty of points in return, which could leave them vulnerable to a Merrimack team that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes. All three of Rutgers’ wins have come at home against weaker opponents, so this could be a spot where they let their guard down. Merrimack’s disciplined playstyle should allow them to stay within the number, even if Rutgers ultimately prevails.

Take Merrimack plus the points. Projected score: Rutgers 74, Merrimack 61.