Sean Murphy – Sports Handicapper

Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Providence plus the points over St. John's at 8 pm ET on Friday.

St. John's enters this matchup on a roll, having notched four consecutive wins, including three straight covers against the spread. However, all those victories came on their home court, where they have been particularly comfortable this season. Now, the Red Storm face a tougher test on the road against a Providence team that is eager to bounce back following a disappointing neutral-court loss to St. Bonaventure last Saturday.

Providence has already demonstrated its strength at home, highlighted by a commanding 83-64 win over BYU as 4.5-point underdogs in their last outing on their own floor. The Friars' home-court advantage should not be overlooked, as they have consistently performed well in front of their home crowd.

The Red Storm's recent success could lead to a slightly inflated point spread, creating value on the underdog Friars in this spot. Look for Providence to rise to the occasion and keep this game close, with a strong chance of pulling off the outright upset.

Take Providence. Projected score: Providence 72, St. John's 70.

My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over North Texas at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This non-conference clash sets up well for Appalachian State to bounce back from consecutive losses both SU and ATS, including a disappointing upset loss on the road against Louisiana on Wednesday. While the Mountaineers have struggled to find consistency, this matchup provides an opportunity for them to regroup against a North Texas team that may be overvalued following a dominant 41-point win against Mississippi Valley State earlier in the week.

It's worth noting that North Texas' lopsided victory came against an overmatched opponent, and prior to that, the Mean Green had dropped two straight contests, exposing some vulnerabilities. Appalachian State, on the other hand, has shown an ability to compete against quality competition and should benefit from a more focused effort in this spot.

Expect the Mountaineers to keep this game competitive, capitalizing on their ability to match North Texas' intensity and potentially exploiting any complacency from the Mean Green following their blowout win.

Take Appalachian State. Projected score: North Texas 71, Appalachian State 65.

My selection is on Alabama State minus the points over Delaware State at 6:30 pm ET on Friday.

This HBCU Challenge matchup sets up well for Alabama State to rebound after a tough loss to Norfolk State on Thursday. While Delaware State enters riding a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS, including an upset of Grambling State yesterday, this game presents a significant challenge against an Alabama State team that has faced a considerably tougher schedule this season.

Alabama State has shown flashes of offensive explosiveness, as evidenced by its 103-point outburst against UT-Martin just one game prior to the Norfolk State loss. That scoring potential gives them a distinct edge against a Delaware State team that has often struggled defensively against higher-quality competition.

The Hornets of Alabama State are positioned to take advantage of Delaware State potentially regressing off their recent emotional win. Look for Alabama State to impose its will and secure a decisive victory in this neutral-site contest.

Take Alabama State. Projected score: Alabama State 76, Delaware State 66.

My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Friday.

While both previous December meetings between these teams went 'over' the total, the underlying pace and shooting efficiency suggest a potential shift here. When they met on Monday in Charlotte, Philadelphia attempted 80 field goals to Charlotte's 83, with both teams shooting exceptionally well. Such hot shooting is unlikely to be sustained in this rematch.

Charlotte is in a challenging back-to-back situation after a loss in Washington last night, which could result in tired legs and diminished offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been idle since Monday, allowing them to refocus defensively after back-to-back subpar efforts. The 76ers are capable of clamping down, as evidenced by the fact that they've been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in five of their last six games.

On the other side, Charlotte's defense has shown some consistency, holding 11 straight and 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Both teams are well-suited to delivering a slower-paced, more defensive-oriented contest compared to their prior meetings this month.

Take the under. Projected score: Philadelphia 104, Charlotte 97.

Friday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Anaheim at 10 pm ET on Friday.

Recent trends suggest this game could feature plenty of scoring. Anaheim has struggled defensively on home ice, allowing 3.4 goals per game, a figure that surpasses their overall season average of 3.1 goals allowed. Meanwhile, their offense has shown signs of life, tallying nine goals across their last three contests.

Colorado, on the other hand, has seen the 'under' cash in its last two games, but that streak is unlikely to continue here. The Avalanche have allowed an average of 3.4 goals per game on the season and 3.1 goals per contest on the road. Colorado's potent offense, which has consistently produced on the road, should take advantage of Anaheim’s leaky defense.

Given the trends on both sides, this game sets up as a high-scoring affair, with both teams capable of capitalizing on defensive lapses. Expect an uptempo matchup and a total that climbs above the posted number.

Take the over. Projected score: Colorado 5, Anaheim 3.

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Notre Dame at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This total feels inflated for a matchup involving a stout Notre Dame defense. The Irish have been excellent on that side of the ball, allowing just 13.6 points per game this season. They’ll look to turn this into a physical, grind-it-out affair in their backyard, particularly after having three weeks off to prepare. While Notre Dame enters this contest on the heels of consecutive 'over' results, those outcomes may not be indicative of what we’ll see in this game, especially given the extended layoff, which could lead to some early offensive rust.

Indiana’s offensive success this season can’t be overlooked, but it’s important to note that the Hoosiers were held to just 20 and 15 points in back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State, two teams with defenses on par with Notre Dame's. Like the Irish, Indiana comes into this game following consecutive 'over' results, but those were against more offensively-oriented teams.

With both teams likely to prioritize defense and methodical play, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome.

Take the under. Projected score: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 20.

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

I believe there’s an underlying SEC bias influencing this line, which provides value on Tulane. The Green Wave enters this matchup with a 9-4 record but comes off consecutive losses both SU and ATS, including a blowout loss to Army in the AAC Championship Game. That disappointing finish should serve as a motivator for Tulane, giving them a chip on their shoulder as they take on an SEC opponent.

Florida, on the other hand, closed out an up-and-down season with three straight victories, including outright upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss. However, both of those wins came at home, where the Gators have thrived. Away from The Swamp, Florida has been far less reliable, posting a 1-3 record on the road this season. While this game takes place in Tampa, Florida’s proximity might not be enough to overcome its inconsistency outside Gainesville. Additionally, the Gators may not be fully locked in for this less-prestigious bowl game, with their focus perhaps lingering on missed opportunities this season.

Expect a motivated Tulane squad to keep this game close, and don’t be surprised if they push Florida to the brink.

Take Tulane. Projected score: Florida 27, Tulane 24.