Fading Public Bets, Betting Against the Public

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Fading Public Bets, Betting Against the Public

One of many popular sports betting systems is the “contrarian method” where you go against whatever side the majority of the bettors are backing also known as Fading Public Bets, Betting Against the Public.

The theory behind this betting system is that the public can be easily swayed to one side by the media, and let’s face it, the public tends to be wrong more often than not. The more money being placed on the “wrong side” will move both moneylines and spreads, making the “non-public” side the selection with clear value.

Public Perception vs. Sportsbook Reality

The most obvious reason this betting system works consistently revolves around the fact that if the general public was right more often than not, sportsbooks would go out of business!

Sportsbooks set their lines trying to get equal public action on both sides and can manipulate the action with the odds and lines, sometimes even making one side look too good to be true. When the betting public pounds a popular side in that situation, it is often the sportsbook that comes out winning.

One example of how this betting system works effectively involves following the public’s obsession wagering on favorites and OVERs, especially in correlated parlays.

After all, most sports bettors get into gambling in the first place because they are fans at heart who already have a rooting interest in the game and want to make money from their passion. And let’s face it, which fan doesn’t like wagering on winning teams and root for a lot of scoring?

With this knowledge on their side, sportsbooks can comfortably shade their lines against favorites and OVERs, knowing that many bettors will often play them blindly regardless of the odds.

Numbers Don’t Lie – Fading the Public is Profitable

In the NFL over the past eight seasons, games in which 75% of the public is on one side lost roughly 53-54% of the time, meaning that fading them resulted in a solid profit. Large underdogs were among the best bets during that stretch, with the underdog covering the spread 55% of the time when 70-75% of the public was on a favorite of 7+ points, which is one of the key numbers in football betting.

In college football, road teams receiving a high percentage of the public’s betting action also make excellent fades. If you had bet against road teams that received 77-80% of wagers over the last eight seasons you would have won about 56% of the time.

While most betting trend or system lasts forever due to the market’s ability to eventually adjust, fading the public seems to be one that will continue to be successful to some degree and stand the test of time.

Sportsbooks will always know which side the public is on, and “sharps” will be able to pick up on this most of the time as well by charting line moves and wager accordingly based on bet percentages and where they can find value.

With this knowledge on your side, do not be afraid to be contrarian and make bank betting against the public.

Check out our Sports Betting Guide for similar articles.