Jack Jones – Sports Handicapper

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Indiana Pacers +1.5

The Indiana Pacers recently got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury and are fully healthy right now. They have won five consecutive games including a 119-103 home win over the Timberwolves last time out to improve to 24-9 SU at home this season. Wrong team favored here.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster. That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 3-7 SU in their last 10 games, including 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago and 118 to Orlando.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20. The Lakers will now be playing their 9th game in 14 days. LeBron James is back, but he's not back to full strength yet and the Lakers could continue to limit his minutes. They lost by 31 to the Bulls and by 12 to the Magic in his two games since returning. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

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15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State ML -135

Illinois State has a sneaky rest advantage over Cleveland State. Not only were they off from March 7th until March 23rd, but the Redbirds also got a day in between their 78-70 win over Presbyterian as 5-point favorites on Sunday and their 78-73 win over Incarnate Word as 6.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

I don't think the Redbirds are tired at all, and if anything they have shaken off the rust of being off for over two weeks and will be better off for it playing their 3rd game in 4 days here. Meanwhile, Cleveland State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after beating Queens-Charlotte 88-73 on Monday and Florida Gulf Coast 72-65 on Tuesday. Not to mention, the Redbirds got to play the early game last night while the Vikings had to play the late game, which only adds to the rest advantage for Illinois State especially with an early 5:00 EST tip tonight.

Illinois State is far and away the superior offensive team in this matchup. The Redbirds rank 87th in adjusted offense and 18th in effective FG percentage. The Vikings rank just 213th in adjusted offense and 246th in effective FG percentage.

The Vikings rely on forcing turnovers (9th, 22.2%) and grabbing offensive rebounds (44th, 34.6%). Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Redbirds. Illinois State ranks 90th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 15.9% of possessions. Better yet, the Redbirds rank 11th in the country allowing offensive rebounds on only 24.9% of opponent possessions. Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now. They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West. And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bulls, upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs, and beat the Bucks by 2 at home.

The Suns are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him. You could see how much their win against the Bucks meant to them with Kevin Durant hugging all his teammates after. I just like the way this team is playing right now, and no question they'll be up for this game with the defending champs coming to town.

The Celtics lost their best player in Jayson Tatum to an ankle injury last game and is doubtful for this game and will likely miss at least a few games. Boston will now be playing its 4th road game in 6 days. The Celtics have questionable motivation right now as they are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East. I don't think they should be favorite on the road over the surging Suns without Tatum. Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers ML -122

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six of their last seven games. The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league. And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers were coming off off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home. The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and coming in on two days' rest.

A big reason I'm fading the Knicks is because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Mavericks last night, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back themselves. Four starters played at least 33 minutes for the Knicks.

They are without their top two PG's in Brunson and McBride, and I just don't trust them that much until Brunson returns. The Knicks are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Lakers just got LeBron James back from injury and are one of the best offensive teams in the league with James, Doncic and Reeves running the show. The problem is their defensive warts have really shown of late.

The OVER is 7-2 in Lakers last nine games overall. They have allowed 118 points or more in five of their last eight games. They gave up 146 to the Bulls the other night in James' first game back from injury.

It won't get any easier for them against the Pacers, who recently got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury and are at full strength right now. The Pacers rank 7th in pace and 9th in offensive rating.

The Pacers and Lakers have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last nine meetings. That includes a 124-117 win by the Lakers for 241 combined points in their 1st meeting this season on February 8th. James and Doncic both did not play in that meeting. It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.