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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Giants/Falcons OVER 42.5

The Atlanta Falcons have made the switch to Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback.  Kirk Cousins' shoulder clearly isn't right and the Falcons wouldn't make the move if they didn't think it was the right one to give their offense the best chance to be success.  Penix Jr. has overcome the odds everywhere he has been, and I think he'll be ready for this moment.

Getting to sit and watch for basically the entire season will have him advanced mentally more than most rookie QB's who are thrust into action early in the season.  This is also a soft landing spot for him getting to go up against a banged up, terrible Giants defense.

The Giants have 10 defenders on IR, three out and another two questionable in LB Brian Burns and CB Deonte Banks.  The Giants have allowed at least 26 points in six of their last eight games overall.  I think the Falcons can easily get 27-plus in this one.

The Giants get an upgrade at QB this week with Drew Lock returning to replace Tommy DeVito.  They are almost fully healthy on offense right now with the exception of two starters on the O-Line.  Nabers, Tracy Jr. and Robinson are three underrated weapons for Lock to get the ball to.

I think the Giants can come close to getting to 20 points in this one.  The Falcons have allowed at least 20 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They rank 25th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points per game.  I think the fact that they held Desmond Ridder and the Raiders in check last week is being factored too much into this total this week.

The Falcons and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in eight of their last 11 games.  Atlanta has stayed remarkably healthy on offense, and I think having a capable, healthy QB this week in Penix Jr. will have their offense rejuvenated to make some plays for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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Ricky's 1* play on SDKD.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- South Dakota State are 5-0 in their last 5 games.

- South Dakota State are 4-1 in their last 5 road  games.

- South Dakota State have won 12 of their last 14 games.

Verdict: The value is on the Road favorite.

Saturday card has 3 Top plays in the NFL And College Playoff action along with a TIER 1 in College hoops and a top NBA Side. Comp play below.

The NBA Comp play at 7;10 eastern is on the OVER 208 in the Sunshine state battle between Miami and Orlando game. Rob notes that road dogs of 3 or less with no rest coming off a home game have flown over 25 of 30 times vs a a team like the Magic that are off a loss. The last 2 in the series have gone over including the season opener down in Miami. The Heat have gone over in 5 of the last 7 on the road. The total is modest at 208 so we will back the over in this game. Rob V-

OU:25-5-2 

12/21/2024recapSat2024HeatMagicaway-0&12208.5

[1%] Free Play on Nebraska-Omaha

Free Soccer Prediction from Doc’s Sports. English Premier League Take #200010 Brentford +125 over Nottingham Forest (10 a.m. EST, Saturday December 21) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a LOSER) We feel we are getting very nice value here for a Brentford side that has notched five straight EPL wins at home. They have also beaten Nottingham Forest in two straight here at Gtech Community Stadium. The home side is one of the best on their own pitch in the entire EPL. They would be on the top of the table if they played on the road like they have at home. They have earned 22 of their 23 points at home, with seven wins and a draw. They have a goal differential of +12 at home. The home side has a very strong offense and they up the defensive intensity in home matches. We expect them to collect the full three points here on Saturday.

1* FREE INFO PLAY

1* Free Sharp Play on Texans vs Chiefs over

Recommended Bet: Sheffield Wednesday

PSP Data Driven 1* Tennessee.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the underdog. Tennessee are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games. Ohio State are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.