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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Giants/Falcons OVER 42.5

The Atlanta Falcons have made the switch to Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback.  Kirk Cousins' shoulder clearly isn't right and the Falcons wouldn't make the move if they didn't think it was the right one to give their offense the best chance to be success.  Penix Jr. has overcome the odds everywhere he has been, and I think he'll be ready for this moment.

Getting to sit and watch for basically the entire season will have him advanced mentally more than most rookie QB's who are thrust into action early in the season.  This is also a soft landing spot for him getting to go up against a banged up, terrible Giants defense.

The Giants have 10 defenders on IR, three out and another two questionable in LB Brian Burns and CB Deonte Banks.  The Giants have allowed at least 26 points in six of their last eight games overall.  I think the Falcons can easily get 27-plus in this one.

The Giants get an upgrade at QB this week with Drew Lock returning to replace Tommy DeVito.  They are almost fully healthy on offense right now with the exception of two starters on the O-Line.  Nabers, Tracy Jr. and Robinson are three underrated weapons for Lock to get the ball to.

I think the Giants can come close to getting to 20 points in this one.  The Falcons have allowed at least 20 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They rank 25th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points per game.  I think the fact that they held Desmond Ridder and the Raiders in check last week is being factored too much into this total this week.

The Falcons and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in eight of their last 11 games.  Atlanta has stayed remarkably healthy on offense, and I think having a capable, healthy QB this week in Penix Jr. will have their offense rejuvenated to make some plays for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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1* Free Pick on Chiefs

Saturday card has 3 Top plays in the NFL And College Playoff action along with a TIER 1 in College hoops and a top NBA Side. Comp play below.

The NBA Comp play at 7;10 eastern is on the OVER 208 in the Sunshine state battle between Miami and Orlando game. Rob notes that road dogs of 3 or less with no rest coming off a home game have flown over 25 of 30 times vs a a team like the Magic that are off a loss. The last 2 in the series have gone over including the season opener down in Miami. The Heat have gone over in 5 of the last 7 on the road. The total is modest at 208 so we will back the over in this game. Rob V-

OU:25-5-2 

12/21/2024recapSat2024HeatMagicaway-0&12208.5

Steelers vs Ravens 
5-Unit bet on the Steelers priced as 6.5-point underdogs. 

I love adding a 2-unit bet using the spread if the Ravens score a TD first in this game. I only like that scenario, though, and I see no solid opportunity to bet less than an 8-unit preflop amount and then add the remaining in the first half under specific situations. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 20-23 SU (47%) and 31-12 ATS (72%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on underdogs including pick-em facing a divisional foe.  

In the last matchup our dog passed for at least 100 yards.  

Our dog is coming off a non-divisional game.  

Our dog lost that game by more than 7 points. 

Our dog had fewer than 20 first downs in that loss. 

[1%] Free Play on Nebraska-Omaha

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LA Lakers at Sacramento 6:00 ET

Lakers (+) over Kings- When LeBron James gets to play 34 minutes as he did in the meeting between these two on Thursday the Lakers will be difficult to beat. His all around game will get you one way or another if he has enough playing time. Anthony Davis his sidekick my be having the best season of his career and only needs to stay healthy. Take LOS ANGELES LAKERS

FREE PLAY on Steelers/Ravens under

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Northern Iowa +3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Northern Iowa Panthers tonight.  They have been dominant in their last 4 games going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with all 4 wins coming by 20 points or more despite not being more than an 18.5-point favorite in any of them.  Washington State is coming off a 89-73 loss at rival Washington.  The Cougars won't be as hungry to beat Northern Iowa as they were to beat their biggest rivals.  This is a clear flat spot for the Cougars.  They haven't been as good since losing G Cedric Coward to injury.  He averages 17.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG this season and it's a huge loss not having him.  Take Northern Iowa.

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David's 1% NBA *FREE PICK*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Kings will aim to exact revenge for a 113-100 loss to the Lakers on Dec 19, and if they can just minimize the mistakes, they'll run away with this one comfortably. 

This is a 1% play on the Kings on the spread.

1* Free Play on Nebraska-Omaha

1* Free Pick on Texans

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* NBA - Celtics/Bulls FREE PICK on Bulls +11.5

1* FREE INFO PLAY

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks get a shot at quick revenge after losing 118-95 at home to the Los Angeles Clippers as 1-point favorites.  It was surprising they were even favored in that game considering they played it without their two best players on Doncic and Irving.  They shot 39.5% from the field while the Clippers shot 51.8%.  Now Irving returns for the rematch and it will make all the difference.  They have still been very good this season with Irving on the floor without Doncic.  Give me the Mavericks.

1* Free Sharp Play on Texans vs Chiefs over

Free Pick on Maple Leafs

Volunteers +7

Tennessee has the value catching points here in Columbus. The Volunteers are upset minded and they matchup well with this Buckeyes team. Ohio State still has that lingering effect of the Michigan loss and the Volunteers can cause them some issues. They’re going to come out and dictate the pace and they can establish an early run game. This will keep the Buckeyes offense off the field as the volunteers can sustain drives. Grab the points in this one. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the Volunteers +7 today. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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Saturday CFB Free Pick

PLAY ON: Clemson +13.5

PSP Data Driven 1* Tennessee.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the underdog. Tennessee are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games. Ohio State are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.

Free Total Annihilator On Steelers vs Ravens under

Saturday NHL Free play. My selection is on Calgary over Chicago at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

The Blackhawks are riding a three-game winning streak, but all those victories came on home ice. Now, they face a challenging road environment, where they've struggled this season, posting a poor 5-11-2 record. Chicago's attention could also be partially focused on a divisional matchup against Minnesota looming on Monday, potentially making this a tough spot for the Blackhawks.

Meanwhile, Calgary enters this game on the heels of consecutive overtime losses at home, where they've otherwise been solid with an 11-4-3 record. The Flames will look to head into the holiday break on a high note as they won't play again until December 28th, when they embark on a two-game road trip. With a motivated Flames team seeking to rebound and Chicago's road woes continuing to linger, this sets up as an advantageous spot for Calgary.

Take Calgary. Projected score: Calgary 3, Chicago 2.