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Jack's Free Pick Monday: Clippers/Magic OVER 210

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA right now. They are 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in nine of their last 10 games. The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league. The OVER is 8-3 in Clippers last 11 games overall. They have gone for 232 or more combined points in five of their last six games coming in. This is a very low total for a game involving the Clippers right now.

The Orlando Magic have gone 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall. They should get Cole Anthony back tonight, who participated in shootaround. The Magic and their opponents have gone for at least 211 combined points in eight of their last nine games overall, so this is even a pretty short total for a game involving Orlando right now. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #679 Over in Houston vs Duke (8:49p.m., Saturday, April 5 CBS) Houston suffocated Tennessee in the Elite 8 to reach the final four. Now they are facing a much bigger lineup, and I see Duke being able to reach the mid-seventies in points. Houston will have to keep in scoring if they have any chance of winning this game and thus, we will side with the over. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays in MLB, NHL, NBA, and College Basketball. Sign-up now and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

*2 Star Play Under* The Nashville Predators and Philadelphia Flyers have both had disappointing seasons. There is a solid angle on teams below .500 in the last few games of the regular seasons trending pretty heavily toward the under. I view both of these goalies as underrated too. The two offenses aren't good at cashing in on their opportunities. I like this one to stay under the total.

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Memphis Grizzlies +5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. JA Morant just returned from injury so the Grizzlies are at full strength outside of Brandon Clarke and about as healthy as they have been all season. They are hungry to get the best playoff position possible as they are slipping dangerously close to being in the play-in at this point. The Boston Celtics are locked in to the 2nd seed in the East. They aren't playing with as much urgency as the Grizzlies are right now. Take Memphis.

PSP Data Driven 1* Rockets.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the underdog. Houston are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games. LA Lakers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.

[1%] Free Play on Clippers

Monday NHL Free play. My selection is on Nashville over Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Monday.

The Predators should come into this game highly motivated after suffering back-to-back home losses against St. Louis and Vegas. Given their strong season overall, I expect a focused effort from Nashville as it looks to avenge an earlier home defeat to the Flyers back in November. Philadelphia has won two straight, but those victories came against struggling opponents in Montreal and Buffalo.

Despite their recent success, the Flyers have been mediocre at home this season, posting an 18-19-1 record while being outscored by an average of 0.2 goals per game. That leaves them vulnerable against a Nashville team eager to get back on track. Look for the Predators to come away with the victory.

Take Nashville. Projected score: Predators 4, Flyers 2.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Miami Heat -8.5

The Miami Heat are still battling for playoff positioning with the Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks in the play-in. The Washington Wizards have completely packed it in with how they are managing their injuries as they are clearly tanking. Another loss tonight would tie them with the Utah Jazz for the worst record in the NBA. The Wizards are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only win coming against another tanking team in the 76ers. The Heat are 4-0 SU in their last four games with all four wins by double-digits, including wins against playoff contenders in Golden State and Atlanta. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as well. Give me the Heat.

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1* Free Play on Kings

1* Free Pick on Giants/Astros under

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* FREE INFO PLAY

NATIONALS/BLUE JAYS MLB FREE PICK

The Washington Nationals are 1-2 on the season after a 5-1 win over the Phillies on Sunday, while the Toronto Blue Jays have split a four-game series with the Orioles. I think the Jays have a big advantage in this Game 1 matchup with Bowden Francis (2024: 8-5, 3

.30 ERA) and Michael Soroka (2024: 0-10, 4.74 ERA) on the mound.

Francis has been solid in his young MLB career and he's backed up by a decent lineup.

3% FREE PICK ON THE BLUE JAYS.

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our Monday Free Play. We lost with the Grizzlies on Saturday and we will back them again catching a bigger number in a solid spot. Memphis rallied from a 20-point deficit in the second quarter against the Lakers to eventually take a lead in the fourth quarter as both teams exchanged leads but the Grizzlies were unable to make the clutch shots. Memphis has struggled since the NBA All-Star break and has lost five of its past six games but is still sitting No. 5 in the Western Conference and trails Los Angeles by just one game. They are still 25-12 at home and now in its second game with interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo. The Celtics is off a 10-point win at San Antonio on Saturday to make it eight straight win and the Celtics conclude their six-game roadtrip where they are now 31-7. Boston has locked up the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with an outside shot at the No. 1 spot but at 2.9 percent, it is nearly impossible. The Celtics have dominated the lower ranked teams but are just 11-17 ATS against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after failing to cover in 12 or more of the last 15 games going up against an opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of -1.7 ppg. Play (510) Memphis Grizzlies

The NCAA Tournament takes a break and the College Basketball Crown runs all this week and we open with TWO Monday Winners starting this afternoon. MLB back in action Monday with an Underdog Triple Play as we go for the PERFECT 3-0 SWEEP. NBA Double Play looks for the SWEEP.

R&R Totals FREE NBA Over-Under Monday 3-31-25

UNDER 218 1/2 Brooklyn/Dallas

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Rockies vs Phillies
5-Unit bet on the Phillies using the –1.5 run line.
2.5-unit bet on the Phillies team total OVER 4.5 priced at –150. An alternative line is OVER 5.5 priced at +105

Game Overview

The Philadelphia Phillies open their 2025 home slate at Citizens Bank Park against the Colorado Rockies, aiming to ignite a passionate Philly crowd after a 95-67 season and an NLDS exit in 2024. The Rockies, fresh off a 61-101 campaign, visit the East Coast looking to play spoiler in this interleague clash. With left-hander Christopher Sánchez taking the mound for the Phillies and right-hander Germán Márquez starting for the Rockies, this matchup pits a rising ace against a veteran rebounding from injury.

Pitching Matchup

Germán Márquez (RHP, Rockies)

2024 Stats: Did not pitch (Tommy John surgery recovery)

2023 Stats: 2-2, 4.95 ERA, 32 K, 1.31 WHIP, 36.1 IP

Advanced Metrics (2023): 4.41 FIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 47.8% GB%

Pitch Mix: Fastball (93-95 mph, 35%), Slider (30%), Curveball (20%), Changeup (15%)

Outlook: Márquez missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery (April 2023), but his 2025 spring training (3.72 ERA, 14 K in 19.1 IP) suggests a return to form. Pre-injury, his slider (34% whiff rate) and ground-ball tendencies thrived at Coors Field, though Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly confines (1.04 park factor) could test his 1.2 HR/9 career rate. Facing Philly’s potent lineup, Márquez’s command will be key after a year away from MLB action.

Christopher Sánchez (LHP, Phillies)

2024 Stats: 11-9, 3.32 ERA, 153 K, 1.24 WHIP, 184 IP

Advanced Metrics: 3.59 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 57.6% GB%

Pitch Mix: Sinker (93-95 mph, 40%), Changeup (30%), Slider (20%), Four-Seam (10%)

Outlook: Sánchez broke out in 2024, leveraging a sinker-heavy approach (57.6% GB%, 2nd among qualifiers) to limit hard contact (87.5 mph avg. exit velocity). His Opening Day start in Atlanta (5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K) showcased his growth, with a changeup (38% whiff rate) that baffled righties. Against Colorado’s middling offense, Sánchez’s ground-ball profile could exploit the Rockies’ 23.8% K% and 7.6% BB% from 2024.

Edge: Sánchez’s consistency and elite ground-ball rate give the Phillies a clear advantage over Márquez’s rust and uncertainty.

Key Matchups to Watch

Bryce Harper vs. Germán Márquez: Harper’s .598 SLG vs. RHP meets Márquez’s 1.2 HR/9 history. A mistake could clear the bases.

Ezequiel Tovar vs. Christopher Sánchez: Tovar’s .406 SLG vs. LHP tests Sánchez’s 57.6% GB% dominance.

Bullpens Late: Philly’s 3.76 ERA relief unit vs. Colorado’s 5.49 ERA pen could widen the gap if starters exit early.

Expected Runs (xR): Phillies 5.2, Rockies 3.8 (based on 2024 wOBA and pitcher xFIP)

The gamer should go the full 9 innings before the storms coming rolling into the Philadelphia region.

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Monday’s FREE WINNER: Texas Rangers.

Game 915.

3:40 PM PST/6:40 PM EST.

The Texas Rangers opened the campaign off taking the series at home against the Boston Red Sox. They dropped the season opener, only to win the next three games with authority. They quickly took control of the competitive American League West, going 3-1. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds, despite sitting in second-place in the National League Central, are just 1-2. They played a tough series at home, dropping two of three against the San Francisco Giants. These two teams met once last season at the end of April, as Texas took two of three at home. Both lineups have accounted for about the same scoring output. The big difference has been pitching. There's no comparing the Reds atrocious staff to the Rangers stellar squad. Speaking of pitching, Cincinnati will send Brady Singer to the hill. The right-hander was 9-13 in 2024. But (and you know how much I like a very big butt LOL), in five career starts against the Rangers, he is 0-3, with a whopping ERA of 5.18. The pitching excitement in this matchup certainly revolves around Texas. Right-hander, Kumar Rocker gets the nod today. If you recall, he was a huge standout star at Vanderbilt, and the third overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft, and five Spring Training games, he allowed just three home runs, and struck out 20 in just 13 innings pitched. I think he has a good outing here, and will certainly get some great run support from Texas against a week pitching staff of Cincinnati. This game almost made it as a premium play for me today. I think the price is short. So, take the Rangers as a small favorite. Thank you.

The Sacramento Kings (36-38) head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to face the Indiana Pacers (43-31) in a crucial late-season matchup. The Pacers are looking to lock in a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference, while the Kings are clinging to a spot in the Western Conference play-in race. Sacramento will be aiming to snap a five-game road losing streak. Indiana has been a force at home with a 24-10 record and has shown consistency on offense, averaging 116.6 points per game. They're one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league, ranking high in both field goal and three-point percentages. Defensively, they allow 115.2 points per game, which places them in the bottom third of the league. Pascal Siakam leads the team in scoring with 20.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while Tyrese Haliburton adds 18.6 points and 9.1 assists. The Pacers recently made headlines with a 162-point outburst in their win over Washington, showcasing their explosive scoring potential. The Kings have an identical scoring average to the Pacers at 116.6 points per game but have been less consistent on defense, giving up 115.7 points per contest. Domantas Sabonis continues to dominate the glass, leading the NBA with 13.9 rebounds per game. Sacramento’s offense can keep pace with anyone, but their road struggles and lack of defensive stops have hampered their consistency. One of the biggest factors in this game will be Indiana's three-point shooting against Sacramento's perimeter defense. The Pacers rank among the league's best in shooting from beyond the arc, while the Kings rank at the bottom in defending the three. Additionally, the showdown between Sabonis and Myles Turner will be key in controlling the paint on both ends of the floor. Given Indiana’s home-court success and Sacramento’s ongoing road issues, the Pacers have a key edge. If they can continue to shoot efficiently and exploit the Kings' defensive gaps, especially on the perimeter, they could walk away with a comfortable win. Take the Indiana Pacers.

Free Pick on Predators

FREE PLAY on Mets

Heat -8.5

The Heat are the move against Washington. The Wizards are in full tank mode as they try to get a better chance at the top draft pick. Washington has dropped 7 of 8 and they are just a mess on both ends of the floor. Miami is hot, winners if 4 in a row in which they’ve held the opposition to 112 points or less in all 4. There’s good value here with the Heat as these are two teams going in opposite directions. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the HEAT -8.5 tonight. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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Recommended Bet: Celta de Vigo

Free Total Annihilator On Predators vs Flyers under

We like the Toronto Blue Jays to defeat the Washington Nationals on Monday at 7:07pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Washington will start Mike Soraka tonight. He was quite bad last season -- 0-10 and had a 4.75 earned run average.

Soroka was even worse two seasons ago. He had a 6.40 earned run average in six starts with the Braves.

The Nationals gave up a lot of runs in their first series -- 19 against the Phillies.

Toronto will start Bowden Francis, who really looked good at the end of last season.

The Blue Jays split their first series (2-2) with the Orioles. We've liked their lineup so far this year.

We're on the Blue Jays today.

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